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Winter Begins Jan 20th AWT


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8 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

3 hr snowfall rates are 1 to 1.5 per hour, Thumpity thump 

download (5).png

That has me and MPM in a nice +SN bullseye.   I'm supposed to be in Newburyport Sat/Sun and hate not being home but should be fun either location.  Then again, if it looks like warning snows to the N Coast, Newburyport has a strict, snow emergency, on street parking policy so party may be a cancel and I get to enjoy from home.  Hopefully win/win.

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6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Start / ending times Mets? Any ideas?

Start time is prob like Sat between 7-11pm. End time is really up in the air. Depends on how much anafront development there is. Could end Sunday afternoon or go all the way until early Monday. 

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9 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Start / ending times Mets? Any ideas?

I am not a Met but stayed at a Holiday Inn express I would say accumulating snow starts here near midnight Sun probably 10 11 pm for you ending late Sunday afternoon .

I often wonder why you can't figure this stuff out after 15 plus years of model watching. 

 

FYI PWATS are very high, when you see .7 per 3 hr rates thats crazy. Those betting on low QPF are in trouble it seems. I would imagine the all snow areas are in the 1.2 to 1.8 jack.  Easy foot to 20 jacks with some lucky SOBs with 2 feet as it stands now. Hi @dendrite

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48 minutes ago, dryslot said:

No, It was not further east, It was heading towards another big hit it looked like, It was still qpf loaded and that looked like it wasn't backing off of that either., We needed like 9 more hours on that lol

Just read through the last 12 pages or so.....feeling kind of caught up.

I'm glad the EC ticked west again.  Let things stay as they are.  :)

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3 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

 I buy the faster evolution... fast in and fast out.

Id go 1-3” here with sleet and maybe some freezing rain, followed by plain rain. Fear the north trend in the final 36 I think 

We'll see what changes tonights 00Z runs from the globals bring. I think we're in the Euro's medium range wheelhouse time so I'll be paying attention to that the most like most everyone else. If it continues to show what it showed at 12Z or even better along with the UK, it'll be tough to bet against those two and they were pretty much the same at 12Z so we'll see. Of course, all the other globals will be important for any trends. Storm is nearly ashore in Cali so we should start getting a better consensus in the next 24 hours

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47 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

No im pretty confident in low levels staying below freezing though these minor differences could matter for a place like BOS or even moreso the south shore from Scooter down to like GHG. A more amped solution might put the CF near BOS or even a shade west. But most of these solutions like the euro would pin it well south of BOS so even the coastline north of that line would stay well below freezing. 

My gut continues to be that this will make some more tickles southeast or at least the profiles will become colder even if the upper air itself doesn't trend that much. It's going to be very hard to advect warm air over this airmass with the southern stream getting pinched the way it does. 

Agreed fully on the tickles SE.  I think the cold wins over everything and regardless of upper levels the CAD and depth of cold will force this SE.  

The one thing that gives me pause in the snowfall maps is how in SWFE the mid-level warmth gets further north and faster than guidance shows.  Someone is getting a frigid sleet storm.  But this cold could be the special time it beats the mid level warmth down.

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26 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

I am not a Met but stayed at a Holiday Inn express I would say accumulating snow starts here near midnight Sun probably 10 11 pm for you ending late Sunday afternoon .

I often wonder why you can't figure this stuff out after 15 plus years of model watching. 

 

FYI PWATS are very high, when you see .7 per 3 hr rates thats crazy. Those betting on low QPF are in trouble it seems. I would imagine the all snow areas are in the 1.2 to 1.8 jack.  Easy foot to 20 jacks with some lucky SOBs with 2 feet as it stands now. Hi @dendrite

Purely anecdotal, but it seems like most storms this season have been unusually generous in the QPF department. Don't see why this should be any different.

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Just now, CoastalWx said:

18z EPS continues what appears to be a bit faster look. I don't see a huge difference in changes, except that maybe it sped up a tad.

Yeah i basically needed a magnifying glass to find difference in the mean track. Model noise. Might have advanced the max sleet line just a hair north, but with 6 hour increments, any timing differences could explain it too. 

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah i basically needed a magnifying glass to find difference in the mean track. Model noise. Might have advanced the max sleet line just a hair north, but with 6 hour increments, any timing differences could explain it too. 

Yeah perhaps a tad north with the mix..but pretty close overall.

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