SnoSki14 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 6 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Well, he needs to change his sig...couldn't care less what happens there. Enjoy your snows, maybe next winter will be better down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 8 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: 3 hr snowfall rates are 1 to 1.5 per hour, Thumpity thump That has me and MPM in a nice +SN bullseye. I'm supposed to be in Newburyport Sat/Sun and hate not being home but should be fun either location. Then again, if it looks like warning snows to the N Coast, Newburyport has a strict, snow emergency, on street parking policy so party may be a cancel and I get to enjoy from home. Hopefully win/win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, WthrJunkyME said: Ironically, we’d be watching Friday’s storm with great interest if “the big one” wasn’t coming. After how this winter has gone, yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, SnoSki14 said: Enjoy your snows, maybe next winter will be better down here. You are giving up on winter in January ? You never learn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Start / ending times Mets? Any ideas? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Keith Carson up here on NBC had a map ready to go at the 6pm news until he saw that 18z GFS and pulled it back lol, But he still threw out possible dbbl digits total in the 10-18" range, Just should have put up the map if you mention totals on air............lolGo big or go homeSent from my Pixel 2 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Start / ending times Mets? Any ideas? Start time is prob like Sat between 7-11pm. End time is really up in the air. Depends on how much anafront development there is. Could end Sunday afternoon or go all the way until early Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 2 minutes ago, Lava Rock said: Go big or go home Sent from my Pixel 2 using Tapatalk You can always go higher if need be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 9 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Start / ending times Mets? Any ideas? I am not a Met but stayed at a Holiday Inn express I would say accumulating snow starts here near midnight Sun probably 10 11 pm for you ending late Sunday afternoon . I often wonder why you can't figure this stuff out after 15 plus years of model watching. FYI PWATS are very high, when you see .7 per 3 hr rates thats crazy. Those betting on low QPF are in trouble it seems. I would imagine the all snow areas are in the 1.2 to 1.8 jack. Easy foot to 20 jacks with some lucky SOBs with 2 feet as it stands now. Hi @dendrite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Start time is prob like Sat between 7-11pm. End time is really up in the air. Depends on how much anafront development there is. Could end Sunday afternoon or go all the way until early Monday. Seems like some solutions have it snowing near zero Monday Am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: Seems like some solutions have it snowing near zero Monday Am Some solutions have it out of here by like 2 p.m. Sunday too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, CT Rain said: Some solutions have it out of here by like 2 p.m. Sunday too These always clear out quicker than we hope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 I buy the faster evolution... fast in and fast out. Id go 1-3” here with sleet and maybe some freezing rain, followed by plain rain. Fear the north trend in the final 36 I think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 24 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Start / ending times Mets? Any ideas? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 WTF is that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 48 minutes ago, dryslot said: No, It was not further east, It was heading towards another big hit it looked like, It was still qpf loaded and that looked like it wasn't backing off of that either., We needed like 9 more hours on that lol Just read through the last 12 pages or so.....feeling kind of caught up. I'm glad the EC ticked west again. Let things stay as they are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 8 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: These always clear out quicker than we hope yup since it's a hybrid SWFE we plan on fast in and fast out. Thumpity thump. 12-14" max averages where it stays all snow. Fast flow ya' know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BombsAway1288 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 3 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: I buy the faster evolution... fast in and fast out. Id go 1-3” here with sleet and maybe some freezing rain, followed by plain rain. Fear the north trend in the final 36 I think We'll see what changes tonights 00Z runs from the globals bring. I think we're in the Euro's medium range wheelhouse time so I'll be paying attention to that the most like most everyone else. If it continues to show what it showed at 12Z or even better along with the UK, it'll be tough to bet against those two and they were pretty much the same at 12Z so we'll see. Of course, all the other globals will be important for any trends. Storm is nearly ashore in Cali so we should start getting a better consensus in the next 24 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: WTF is that? The talking weenie.......lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 3 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: Just read through the last 12 pages or so.....feeling kind of caught up. I'm glad the EC ticked west again. Let things stay as they are. I didn't get that from reading the post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: WTF is that? Edibles? Has to be Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 47 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: No im pretty confident in low levels staying below freezing though these minor differences could matter for a place like BOS or even moreso the south shore from Scooter down to like GHG. A more amped solution might put the CF near BOS or even a shade west. But most of these solutions like the euro would pin it well south of BOS so even the coastline north of that line would stay well below freezing. My gut continues to be that this will make some more tickles southeast or at least the profiles will become colder even if the upper air itself doesn't trend that much. It's going to be very hard to advect warm air over this airmass with the southern stream getting pinched the way it does. Agreed fully on the tickles SE. I think the cold wins over everything and regardless of upper levels the CAD and depth of cold will force this SE. The one thing that gives me pause in the snowfall maps is how in SWFE the mid-level warmth gets further north and faster than guidance shows. Someone is getting a frigid sleet storm. But this cold could be the special time it beats the mid level warmth down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 3 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: yup since it's a hybrid SWFE we plan on fast in and fast out. Thumpity thump. 12-14" max averages where it stays all snow. Fast flow ya' know. We’ve got 14-20” max extending from ENY through WMA to SEME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BombsAway1288 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 I know the NAM is first up on the 00Z suite and most of the others come out between 11pm and 1am but when does the ICON come out? I think that and the IBM Deep Thunder were the one's showing what the Euro now shows days ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 18z EPS continues what appears to be a bit faster look. I don't see a huge difference in changes, except that maybe it sped up a tad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 18z EPS very close to 12z....maybe just a whisker more amped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 26 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: I am not a Met but stayed at a Holiday Inn express I would say accumulating snow starts here near midnight Sun probably 10 11 pm for you ending late Sunday afternoon . I often wonder why you can't figure this stuff out after 15 plus years of model watching. FYI PWATS are very high, when you see .7 per 3 hr rates thats crazy. Those betting on low QPF are in trouble it seems. I would imagine the all snow areas are in the 1.2 to 1.8 jack. Easy foot to 20 jacks with some lucky SOBs with 2 feet as it stands now. Hi @dendrite Purely anecdotal, but it seems like most storms this season have been unusually generous in the QPF department. Don't see why this should be any different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, CoastalWx said: 18z EPS continues what appears to be a bit faster look. I don't see a huge difference in changes, except that maybe it sped up a tad. Yeah i basically needed a magnifying glass to find difference in the mean track. Model noise. Might have advanced the max sleet line just a hair north, but with 6 hour increments, any timing differences could explain it too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 great having the EPS at 18z almost eliminates the model down time we had before.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah i basically needed a magnifying glass to find difference in the mean track. Model noise. Might have advanced the max sleet line just a hair north, but with 6 hour increments, any timing differences could explain it too. Yeah perhaps a tad north with the mix..but pretty close overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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