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Winter Begins Jan 20th AWT


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1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

EPS snow map.  The EPS has been much more consistent than the OP runs (shocking)...seems to tickle north or south but overall it just keeps aiming a band of heavy snow through the heart of New England.  It's about 50 miles south of yesterday's mean.  Not quite as wild as the OP.

IMG_1931.thumb.PNG.2009c53243ba11a3781ecd1126f59a52.PNG

Those are quite hefty for a mean though.

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3 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

EPS snow map.  The EPS has been much more consistent than the OP runs (shocking)...seems to tickle north or south but overall it just keeps aiming a band of heavy snow through the heart of New England.  It's about 50 miles south of yesterday's mean.  Not quite as wild as the OP.

IMG_1931.thumb.PNG.2009c53243ba11a3781ecd1126f59a52.PNG

Any members show out an all our blizzard for New York City and Boston sorry to bother you

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1 minute ago, NeonPeon said:

3" then 2" of rain during prime winter... meanwhile I've had 3 colds and now the flu.  I may remember this winter for the wrong reasons the way it is going.

You are not getting rain, I think everywhere but Nantucket will see all snow honestly, I think one or two more jumps south will continue into tomorrow and then a smoothing out of the tracks will begin.

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1 minute ago, NYCweatherNOW said:

James what do you think about New York City?

Probably more of a rain issue given your latitude especially as the storm reaches 38.5N latitude, it will be then your longitude that gets your into trouble and why you won't be all snow unless the track drops way south in the next few cycles.  I think your storms come after the 25th, that storm is either a cutter or a coastal storm, I can see how that storm's energy in the northern stream gets caught into the PV circulation and heads into the Great Lakes, the cold air presses southward then and the storm track is forced to the coastline where Cape and Islands will see a much better shot at snowstorms like NYC and NJ.  I think however, our longitude helps us with the weekend storm.

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33 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

From a building...not sure if it was ice from the early Jan event since it happened in Feb

https://www.nytimes.com/1994/02/06/nyregion/woman-hit-by-falling-ice-from-high-rise.html

I witnessed this happening (not someone dying but sheets of ice falling from skyscrapers) in 1998 in Montreal.  I basically couldn't leave the island for three days because the bridges were all closed because of fears of falling ice off the structures.  Walking around the streets during the day you'd hear this whistling sound and everyone would run for cover and a large sheet of ice would land somewhere.  It was not fun.

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16 minutes ago, NeonPeon said:

3" then 2" of rain during prime winter... meanwhile I've had 3 colds and now the flu.  I may remember this winter for the wrong reasons the way it is going.

I think we'll do better than that in East Bay, RI.  6-12" with sleet mixing would be a safe call.  Maybe closer to 6" due to more sleet would be safer for Newport.  I don't think this storm has a lot of rain in it for us.

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Just now, bristolri_wx said:

I think we'll do better than that in East Bay, RI.  6-12" with sleet mixing would be a safe call.  Maybe closer to 6" due to more sleet would be safer for Newport.  I don't think this storm has a lot of rain in it for us.

Bristol normally doubles our snowfall in these liminal situation, so you could well be right.  If you think 6-12 is a fair bet for you, I'd say we'd be at 3-6.  I'll take the low end.  

This sort of detail is very premature.  But this whole thing is not a great look for the coast.

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Just now, NeonPeon said:

Bristol normally doubles our snowfall in these liminal situation, so you could well be right.  If you think 6-12 is a fair bet for you, I'd say we'd be at 3-6.  I'll take the low end.  

This sort of detail is very premature.  But this whole thing is not a great look for the coast.

Agreed, this is the way many of these storms go.  We're smack dab in the legendary snow hole that always shows up, for whatever reason.  It's going to be a lot of slop for sure, but thankfully it's just not just rain like previous have been.

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