mreaves Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 4 minutes ago, CT Rain said: The op Euro would be a hideous ice storm around NYC/NJ I think Could it keep them from posting? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 I think sleet is probably a better bet for the coastline then freezing rain, we rarely get freezing rain here, we get sleet most times and then plain rain. I think someone is going to get a jp band of 24"+ in SNE. I think I will see between 6-12" of snow from this one and a much bigger amounts from the midweek storm next week. EURO trended colder with that one, which looks like a bomb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 3 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: Which rarely if ever occurs. Doesn’t mean it can’t happen but I would lean towards it being more sleet or just going to rain faster. That’s what happens 95 out of 100 times here. A severe ice storm is about a once in 20-30 year event for the NYC metro and Long Island Yeah, I'd be shocked by that much ice but we'll see. Wonder what curveball guidance will throw next. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Pretty solid consensus between euro and gfs ensembles. Really encouraging trends on euro ensembles too. Take them up everywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 9 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: It already did today lol. Took 5 minutes to load every refresh Was gonna say, see all the duplicate posts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 7 minutes ago, CT Rain said: The op Euro would be a hideous ice storm around NYC/NJ I think Wish they we Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 EPS with 2"+ of liquid.. same as GFS, CMC.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 EC ZR last two runs.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: When was the last epic ice storm in NYC? 1994? 25 years....about due for another. Jan 1978 had one too. 1994. There was a very severe ice storm along the north shore of LI, Queens, and NYC in February 99 where about 1 inch fell between 5 and 10am but it was fairly localized and even parts of NE NJ saw less precip. 78 I think was the last one before 94 and I think some time in the mid to late 1950s was the one before that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 hahaha ... hoh man... GGEM ... snows almost as prodigiously at 200 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cut Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said: 1994. There was a very severe ice storm along the north shore of LI, Queens, and NYC in February 99 where about 1 inch fell between 5 and 10am but it was fairly localized and even parts of NE NJ saw less precip. 78 I think was the last one before 94 and I think some time in the mid to late 1950s was the one before that Yup - I remember the bridges being closed so they could sledge the ice of the super structure. I have a vague memory of someone getting seriously hurt as ice came off Whitestone I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 3 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: I think sleet is probably a better bet for the coastline then freezing rain, we rarely get freezing rain here, we get sleet most times and then plain rain. I think someone is going to get a jp band of 24"+ in SNE. I think I will see between 6-12" of snow from this one and a much bigger amounts from the midweek storm next week. EURO trended colder with that one, which looks like a bomb. 6-12" would be the absolute best case senario for you, there is really no model showing that right now expect the UKMET...maybe. Learn from your last mistake when you completely over zealous and apologized for it. A couple inches on the front end to a mix then rain looks likely for your area right now, be realistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cut Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Just now, cut said: Yup - I remember the bridges being closed so they could sledge the ice of the super structure. I have a vague memory of someone getting seriously hurt as ice came off Whitestone I think. And I think we had a few of these borderline systems in a row and constant deep freeze right after - over like a 2 or 3 week stretch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 1 minute ago, cut said: Yup - I remember the bridges being closed so they could sledge the ice of the super structure. I have a vague memory of someone getting seriously hurt as ice came off Whitestone I think. Yup. While googling NYC ice storm 1994, I saw an article of a woman seriously hurt by falling ice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Based on the posts. I didn’t think big ice signal along the 84 corridor but maps look warmer than suggested. This aint good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morch Madness Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 not happening james Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiktock Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Tracking and watching this storm and watching the Bruins/Montreal game on Monday have some creepy parallels. Such emotional highs and lows. This Euro run felt like that goal with 30 seconds left to tie it up. Lets just hope the next 2 days dont end up feeling like how the game ended with a soul crushing Montreal OT goal in the first 15 seconds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 6 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said: EC ZR last two runs.. 1 That's not something you see modeled every day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 It's going to be almost impossible to avoid a band of significant icing in this setup....the question is just where does it happen. These further south ticks have put NYC/NJ SW CT more in the zone for big icing versus C/N CT into MA on yesterday's runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 7 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said: EC ZR last two runs.. Not tossed but I’d wager a lot of that is sleet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cut Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 3 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Yup. While googling NYC ice storm 1994, I saw an article of a woman seriously hurt by falling ice On bridge correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 7 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said: EC ZR last two runs.. Do any other models show ice south of the Pike as consistent as this and is this more IP than ZR? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Based on the posts. I didn’t think big ice signal along the 84 corridor but maps look warmer than suggested. This aint good. The 12Z Euro is basically a pounding of 8-10" of snow in a few hours, to close to an inch of ice on top of that, and coated with an couple/few inches on top of that. Nasty stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BombsAway1288 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: It's going to be almost impossible to avoid a band of significant icing in this setup....the question is just where does it happen. These further south ticks have put NYC/NJ SW CT more in the zone for big icing versus N CT into MA on yesterday's runs. Hopefully it stays south of the pike. I don't think anyone wants an inch of ice except for a certain someone in NE Connecticut. It's Championship Weekend and I've already decided that travel on Sunday is not going to work and cancelled plans Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: Not tossed but I’d wager a lot of that is sleet Yes, I agree...the stuff down further south is prob legit ZR, but those algorithms really don't give enough sleet. Most of that north of C CT is sleet....it doesn't get that warm aloft up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 14 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: When was the last epic ice storm in NYC? 1994? 25 years....about due for another. Jan 1978 had one too. and even then.....I don't think they've ever had one that matched 2008 up this way into NH. Too close to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 3 minutes ago, cut said: On bridge correct? From a building...not sure if it was ice from the early Jan event since it happened in Feb https://www.nytimes.com/1994/02/06/nyregion/woman-hit-by-falling-ice-from-high-rise.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 2 minutes ago, Modfan said: Do any other models show ice south of the Pike as consistent as this and is this more IP than ZR? Those EC freezing rain maps are bad. They're based on the instantaneous ptype at a certain time (say 12z) and then the prior 6 hours of QPF is included. So say you're sleet until 6:45 a.m. everything from 1 a.m. to 6:45 a.m. would be incorrectly computed as ZR. So, user beware. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BombsAway1288 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Honestly though, how much of that ZR in those areas on those maps is lost to runoff? I guess it depends on how cold the surface temps are Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: It's going to be almost impossible to avoid a band of significant icing in this setup....the question is just where does it happen. These further south ticks have put NYC/NJ SW CT more in the zone for big icing versus C/N CT into MA on yesterday's runs. Perhaps targeting the straw-man ... I don't think anyone should be surprised... That's the one contention in this that's been the most glaring and confident; one should be leaning toward colder/BL forcing - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.