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Winter Begins Jan 20th AWT


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8 minutes ago, Connecticut Appleman said:

Is there a push of cold air anticipated to increase in the coming hours?   

Temp has risen a couple of degrees to 29 in past couple of hours and dp is also jumped up 3 degrees to 18.  Wind has been from ESE.  Was hoping that being on the western side of CT might help out on this one.

Ya.....38 in downtown Hartford lol......rainer 

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2 minutes ago, wx2fish said:

I'm really hoping we waste enough qpf as sleet down here before we flip to ZR. 

I hear ya. Anyone getting substantial ZR is keeping it for a few days. You wouldn’t need that wedge to overperform much to keep the IP going longer down there. Hopefully the warm nose ticks a bit cooler to keep the hydrometeors from completely melting so we can make the transition back to frozen in the cold layer easier. 

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3 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I hear ya. Anyone getting substantial ZR is keeping it for a few days. You wouldn’t need that wedge to overperform much to keep the IP going longer down there. Hopefully the warm nose ticks a bit cooler to keep the hydrometeors from completely melting so we can make the transition back to frozen in the cold layer easier. 

Generally along my thinking too. Probably more in the way of sleet after it flips in S NH. Probably get some zr but hopefully not damaging. 

 

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Wondering if they'll have to mention thunder in the S-SE zones... LI's down to 0 over Logan...

Probably while it ices along Rt 2 ...  This system is precisely wrong for everyone's preference.  Really is quite remarkably wrong -

I have a particular aversion and disinterest to the power going out because of ice storms... Meanwhile, if the 18z NAM gets it's way (warmest run yet mind you...) it's 54 F in ORH and boy oh boy does everyone that trashed the GFS looks embarrassing... 

Thing is... know what?  I bet the GFS was right for the wrong reason. It's got a whopper warm bias in the BL ... this situation may simply have converged over top it's bias.  Funny almost...

The FRH grid now 3" liquid at Logan, the but tries to argue for 3 inch burst of snow at the tail end -

Other notable ... NAM has single digits at 18z Monday at Logan with 30 mph wind gusts...  That could very well be a 45 F 24 -hr whiplash

 

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