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Winter Begins Jan 20th AWT


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8 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

This is my latest map. I think the thump of snow should be pretty impressive. We should dump hard for a good 3-4 hours I would think and with rates of 1-3''/hour I don't see why we can't accumulate this much. 

Obviously the biggest question is with regards to the freezing rain. I don't think NW of 84 we get into the mid 30's but it's more of a question of do we get to 33-34 or stay more like upper 20's to around 30-31?

2123706126_snowicemap.jpg.b50f5ecf80c16e39a05f40152e900aaa.jpg

I hope I get 4 to 8 on the SW CT coast.

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4 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

I hope I get 4 to 8 on the SW CT coast.

That's where my lowest confidence is, but I'm basing that off the degree of lift and the snow rates I am expecting. I would certainly say totals closer to 4'' than 8'' but there is always some type of surprise with these WAA/strong fronto bands of snow. You rip a good 2'' per hour for two hour (which I don't think is unreasonable) that's 4'' right there

2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Nice map. We were a little more conservative at SCW with our snow and ice maps, but that ZR question looms large in my mind. I think there's a narrow swath of the state that's going to see a high impact ice event. Certainly one of the tougher forecasts I've grappled with. 

I agree...the swath will likely be more narrow (I was more concerned the other day for a much larger area). Yeah...this is a big challenge

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7 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

That's where my lowest confidence is, but I'm basing that off the degree of lift and the snow rates I am expecting. I would certainly say totals closer to 4'' than 8'' but there is always some type of surprise with these WAA/strong fronto bands of snow. You rip a good 2'' per hour for two hour (which I don't think is unreasonable) that's 4'' right there

I agree...the swath will likely be more narrow (I was more concerned the other day for a much larger area). Yeah...this is a big challenge

Thanks. I know the November 6.5 inches was a positive bust. Hopefully something similar happens again.

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3 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

I pictureeveryoneat the GTG putting a reindeer sweater on the wall and throwing darts at it.

Just clobbered up here on the EURO.  Mid-level band pivot point.  Most of the NAM/GFS banding progs like a pivot near BTV and in N/C VT.   

Congrats. It’s the winter of PF’s revenge

 

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36 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Nice map. We were a little more conservative at SCW with our snow and ice maps, but that ZR question looms large in my mind. I think there's a narrow swath of the state that's going to see a high impact ice event. Certainly one of the tougher forecasts I've grappled with. 

Nice map, DIT gets his ice storm and I don't. 

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