EastonSN+ Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 38 minutes ago, Mr. Windcredible! said: Trends are great in CT for anyone who ever wanted a skating rink in their yard. Flooding rain followed by a flash freeze. I always said I’d prefer a 50 degree rainstorm to a crushing ice storm...I guess I should be happy. This I am pleased about. Everyone was petrified of ice and I am tired of losing power. If it's not going to snow lets get warm enough to remove freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 I’m gonna scream at mpm at the gtg if he complains goddammit! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Just now, weathafella said: I’m gonna scream at mpm at the gtg if he complains goddammit! He will be choked out by Ray, Scott and Will and we will find him nervously sipping diet cokes in fetal position Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 15 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: Based on the early alarms broadcast about this event, this could go down as an historical bust, particularly if there is nothing crazy ice-wise. 3’ to 5”. Not much Of a miss. Not to quibble over inherently subjective semantics but... this wouldn't even make the top 10. A bust is when a region is closer to utterly blind-sided .... Technically, there's no lead warning or anticipation and the situation goes awry - that's a bust, for worse(better). This still has hours leading.. and frankly, the contentious nature of modeling guidance means the blind part kinda fails... but it's moot because we are being warned with enough time to react accordingly. Not a bust. If we want to argue poor modeling performance ...sure... that's different than blind-side variant result though. Look, I understand frustration ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 25 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: When the gfs is colder in thermals than the NAM.. you’d better pay attn Here’s the thing, it’s not colder then the NAM in SNE. They are virtually identical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowgeek Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said: Even ALB is now with a tall sleet column at max ... I have learned to always keep it an option in the back of my mind. Seems like if the warm wedge has a chance of trending north, it almost always does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowgeek Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: Should I be worried about sleet here at Killington tomorrow now? Really don’t want pellets hitting me in the face. That seems crazy but that warm layer keeps trending north every run. Starting to wonder if I should have gone further north to Bush Stowe or Smuggs. I think you'll be fine at Killington, but I guess there's a chance. I'm probably changing my Bromley plans to Gore. Will decide in the morning based on nowcasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Hey Chris... you folks at NWS looking over any soundings ? ... curious how deep in the atmosphere this arctic arm/exertion really is ... particularly down here around this interface/storm track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 4 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Here’s the thing, it’s not colder then the NAM in SNE. They are virtually identical. See Will post please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: See Will post please It's a pretty close call for a nasty ice storm for you up through ORH, I'm almost leaning towards it. Knock like 2C off the surface progs and there you go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 22 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: Based on the early alarms broadcast about this event, this could go down as an historical bust, particularly if there is nothing crazy ice-wise. 3’ to 5”. Not much Of a miss. Too many people bought into the hype machine that was created in the media. Even at the gym this morning I overheard a couple of people talking about receiving 2-3 feet of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: See Will post please Where did he say the GFS was colder then the NAM? Don’t see that at all. And here are the 30hr graphics to show my point. NAM is colder then the GFS At the surface but they are both a torch at 850. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 1 minute ago, JC-CT said: It's a pretty close call for a nasty ice storm for you up through ORH, I'm almost leaning towards it. Knock like 2C off the surface progs and there you go. Just gonna have to see how it plays out. If Euro holds serve like it has for 4 days it might be go time. I can tell you one thing.. anyone thinking it gets above freezing within 10-20 miles of the coast are going to be shocked tomorrow when it’s in the 20’s - near 30 tomorrow morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowgeek Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 45 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I’m with my 4 year old son and that area is less kid friendly. I love Sugarbush. We are staying in Rutland though and doubt we can make it up there in the morning given the weather. Might even struggle to get to Killington. Thanks for the input. Pico! Cheaper, great mountain, family friendly, closer! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 11 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said: Too many people bought into the hype machine that was created in the media. Even at the gym this morning I overheard a couple of people talking about receiving 2-3 feet of snow. The folly of some on-air mets (Harvey included) putting out big snow amounts 72 hrs before the event, especially with the uncertainty in this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 3 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said: The folly of some on-air mets (Harvey included) putting out big snow amounts 72 hrs before the event, especially with the uncertainty in this system. I agree. It would have been better to start conservative and then adjust as needed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 2 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said: I agree. It would have been better to start conservative and then adjust as needed. Managers demand. I would have put up vague language without amounts. Like “possible sizable winter storm..” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PWMan Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Latest GYX probabilistic maps still show PWM with 14-16”, but I did notice that the 90% low-end has been cut back to 6; was 11 yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 32/15 here now.. wind out of the north at 6 so the northerly drain has started!! were screwed I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 1 minute ago, ineedsnow said: 32/15 here now.. wind out of the north at 6 so the northerly drain has started!! were screwed I think. Very much so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WthrJunkyME Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 20 minutes ago, PWMan said: Latest GYX probabilistic maps still show PWM with 14-16”, but I did notice that the 90% low-end has been cut back to 6; was 11 yesterday. Cut back to about 8” up here on low end, but expected is still 17”. We’ll see how it all shakes out. Hope our friends to the south end up with some pleasant surprises. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BombsAway1288 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 51 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said: Too many people bought into the hype machine that was created in the media. Even at the gym this morning I overheard a couple of people talking about receiving 2-3 feet of snow. If the general public is still thinking that way they are going to be extremely surprised if these models keep going north. There will be an outcry on social media which is really the thing responsible for having to put out snow maps so early. Once some idiot posts a D7 Euro map that shows 2’ up and down 95, it goes viral and becomes unstoppable, even a week out. I thought it was funny last night as the 00z models were coming out showing a lot more warmth that Pete B. said that because of the government shutdown, it’s playing havoc with the models lol. Is there any truth to that? Less balloons being being launched and such? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 7 minutes ago, WthrJunkyME said: Cut back to about 8” up here on low end, but expected is still 17”. We’ll see how it all shakes out. Hope our friends to the south end up with some pleasant surprises. Thank you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Ukie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 1pm Broad L.P 986 over Poughkeepsie SE ward” area” to 986 Boston Harbor ish by 7pm generators ready ... QPF is getting ridiculous again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: 1pm 986 over Poughkeepsie to 986 Boston Harbor 7pm generators ready ... QPF is getting ridiculous again That kind of implies some good back end stuff after everything crashes se. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Man, this is one hell of an interesting storm to say the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 24 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: 32/15 here now.. wind out of the north at 6 so the northerly drain has started!! were screwed I think. I agree. I'd be very careful about writing off the sig icing potential for northern CT. Plenty of room to wet-bulb are way down. Maybe coastal CT warms into the upper 30's to lower 40's, but I doubt we do in northern CT. At worse we may get a 33 or 34. It's going to be close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 There is so much up in the air. 4-8" is a comfortable range for BOS. It's tough to know how much rain versus sleet, and if there will be snow to end the storm. I don't think much has realistically changed as much as we're just uncertain on how the nowcasting will be as storm is ongoing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 The NAM is too warm up in Canada anyway. Had a min temp between Montreal and Quebec City south of the St. Lawrence of about -10F at 12pm est, reality is more like -15F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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