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Winter Begins Jan 20th AWT


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Based on TWC coverage and maps you’d think icing was a big threat well into central ME. Also hearing lots of torch talk on here, but GYX forecasts and discussions don’t seem to be buying it - at least for this area. Still calling for 14” for PWM. Guess I should be bracing for a bust like everyone else.

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Dewpoint drain is already happening and will continue most of today. I think people who are taking guidance at face value or close to it are going to be somewhat surprised. BOS already down to 13F with single digits filtering down coastline and CT valley in CNE. I've seen this before. 

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49 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

That isn't going to stop the snows that come tonight, it will melt by mid-morning in the torrential tropical rains that occur, as models have 4-5" of rain falling, at least there is no snow pack to destroy

I agree James, we'll probably get a quick 1 to 3 tonight. We'll get a big one down this way before the winter is over.....hopefully!

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Dewpoint drain is already happening and will continue most of today. I think people who are taking guidance at face value or close to it are going to be somewhat surprised. BOS already down to 13F with single digits filtering down coastline and CT valley in CNE. I've seen this before. 

I am 35/19 at Tweed. Ugh

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Dewpoint drain is already happening and will continue most of today. I think people who are taking guidance at face value or close to it are going to be somewhat surprised. BOS already down to 13F with single digits filtering down coastline and CT valley in CNE. I've seen this before. 

Gun to head, what’s your call for BOS, ORH, and ASH?

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18 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Should I be worried about sleet here at Killington tomorrow now?  Really don’t want pellets hitting me in the face.  That seems crazy but that warm layer keeps trending north every run.  Starting to wonder if I should have gone further north to Bush Stowe or Smuggs. 

Stowe is a lock for 20 plus despite PFs feigned worry

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9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Dewpoint drain is already happening and will continue most of today. I think people who are taking guidance at face value or close to it are going to be somewhat surprised. BOS already down to 13F with single digits filtering down coastline and CT valley in CNE. I've seen this before. 

Mine dropped from 24 at 4:30 when I went running to 20 at 8:00 down to 16 now 

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Yeah... looking/utilizing the 2-meter temperature progs going back many cycles... I feel reasonably confident I have this figured out.

Firstly, no one is arguing the DP are not low and lowering.  Nor that the arctic boundary has come through... At least, they shouldn't be. Because both are facts.

The question becomes ...verifying to what degree - pun intended...

This is a high sensitivity pattern this storm is translating through. Subtle changes in momentum in any context can and do have larger sensible impacts on the surface evolution when the flow is compressed and conserving a system through it. In this case... it is clear there is a subtle backing off on the amount of arctic air over the last several cycles.  This is true up-down latitude from western Quebec to NYC... The whole region is slightly warmed ... We didn't start applying the cliche, 'threading the needle' for nothing... We were always looking to get lucky in some sense of it... (the non-scientific, holistic irony, this winter has been all about not getting lucky...)

I suggest considering that insane push aloft is just perhaps strong enough (in the models ... I'm not saying it will verify this way) to overcome a cold low level that is subtly attenuated.  It's real insidious too - it's very easily unnoticed and under the radar how in the last 24 hours of runs the magnitude of cold is just enough backed off... Because at a glance, it certainly still looks clad.

Now... out here in reality... this is probably a ice storm and the models RGEM/NAM...etc... probably too liberal with the polar penetration of warmth at llvs anyway, because the standard BL correction should be applied. Even with a subtle almost imperceptible albeit all important backing off of llv cold momentum...  it's not 0.  And unless it is... it's like waiting on a warm front in April when the flags are wobbling from NE at dawn - regardless of the models... you ain't warm sectorin' that day y'all.  Just take that typical correction and lop the 35 F off of it ... same thing.

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28 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Should I be worried about sleet here at Killington tomorrow now?  Really don’t want pellets hitting me in the face.  That seems crazy but that warm layer keeps trending north every run.  Starting to wonder if I should have gone further north to Bush Stowe or Smuggs. 

It's possible but just for avoiding crowds I'd hit Mount Ellen at Sugarbush. Cover all bases lol

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Just now, Mr. Windcredible! said:

Trends are great in CT for anyone who ever wanted a skating rink in their yard. Flooding rain followed by a flash freeze. I always said I’d prefer a 50 degree rainstorm to a crushing ice storm...I guess I should be happy.

Not unhappy here. If we cant all snow sleet  then wash it away before a yard skating rink sets up. Dogs could get injured.  I would love to see mid 40s for 3 hrs 

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