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Winter Begins Jan 20th AWT


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14 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

The one thing I’m noticing is the lack of a cold push. The classic ones have the big cold push the day prior on strong NW winds and set the stage. We just have the cold oozing in despite HP to the north....there is no good push south. On top of that. This low is approaching at a high latitude. So the flow turns east quick and really ends the cold advection off the deck. What we do have is cold coming in from the NE in the interior. That may help them, but it’s curtains for many down here. 

Purely anecdotal, but the air down here certainly does not feel supportive of an ice event. Almost felt like late March. Kind of expected today to be chilly and gray with really low DPs.

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18 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Wear black to the gtg...raise a glass

LOL.

I'm thinking just a ton of pings here, not ZR.

13 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Well it could def track over like PYM. But it's not going over, say, BOS I don't think. Def not anything west. I'll believe that when I actually see it. 

 https://getyarn.io/yarn-clip/01af156f-fc74-49a3-9bae-4b9922d26d77

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1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

The gfs was driving this low inland before any signs of the srn s/w trending stronger. That’s not a win for it. 

Should this play out like we're seeing now:

Sensible weather wise, GFS did the best.  

NAM missed all over the place.  Even a broken clock is right twice a day.

Euro wins the prize being the most consistent in it's being wrong.

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1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

The gfs was driving this low inland before any signs of the srn s/w trending stronger. That’s not a win for it. 

Correct.  Also just using the NAM as an example.  Look at how the heights elongate westward in Canada as a result of the stronger southern s/w.  This allows heights ahead to be pumped up just enough.

B8C6AA03-DDD0-4068-A724-3E648C6147A2.thumb.gif.90344b24273438dc28b75361604e0604.gif

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I think there's been a collective chiding and of the GFS all along ... a lot of which was unfair. 

I admit, I was susceptible to the colder solution, myself...  but I'm glad I never threw the GFS under the bus like I read so many posts.  I was taught years ago to work with a model's biases  - that's a art that's lost on this crew at times from what I've observed over the years.  I

Because now we're closing in ... and the arctic boundary ... although it came through, the cold air (appears) to not have penetrate quite as deeply as the colder camped guidance suggested all week it would. That was a key factor in prevention of a NW track.  The NAM is moving the warm-front past Logan ...and this is going to cause tsunamis of angry/bargaining post prior to post-mortem depression... finally, acceptance - a cycling that really does take place in here with eerily similarity to that phenomenon.  But don't blame me while your sequencing through all that - I'm just reporting what has happened, and what is happening now: 

people made fun of and ridiculed a model before verification

guidance is jamming said model's warmer looks down our throats

Having said that... maybe the arctic air is, secondarily now being sampled wrong and is under-estimated in the models... Yeah, okay. Sure, could go back the other direction.  But, I think the ship has already sailed on pointing out why we shouldn't admonish the GFS like we find it so satisfying to do so, when it so happens to illustrate evolution we don't want.

Just trying to be fair man -

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