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Winter Begins Jan 20th AWT


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Just catching up. Man, I may be wrong about the sleet getting a good fight. But we'll see, still have a feeling we'll see a fight between 06z-12z from pike to ASH.  

Looks like some of the guidance is starting to get a better clue on the surface track though...06z GFS finally came southeast with sfc low...still way too warm at sfc though but we are not going to see a track into interior SNE like it was attempting earlier. 

 

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Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Yeah It’s staying below 32 almost down to w 2/3 of CT coast 

I haven’t looked at enough to comment for down there, but if these midlevels had been like this all along (no gloom and doom from the late warm trends) we’d probably be saying to watch for the CAD to overperform and the low to hug the south coast and go over the canal or something. Maybe we can get a tick south at 12z.

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Just now, dendrite said:

I haven’t looked at enough to comment for down there, but if these midlevels had been like this all along (no gloom and doom from the late warm trends) we’d probably be saying to watch for the CAD to overperform and the low to hug the south coast and go over the canal or something. Maybe we can get a tick south at 12z.

I'm counting on Messenger shifts to maximize my snow.

Just now, HoarfrostHubb said:

This is why we don’t throw huge totals out as forecasts 3 days before game time...go conservative.  That first BOX map was destined to go down in flames...

How about the TWC forecast?  I hope Brian kept that one.

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1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Man this storm and winter pretty much can eat it. I’m all set. Good luck to north country. 

Yup... writing has been on the wall down here for a few runs. Bright side is, any snow at work should be minimal. Going in at 630am tomorrow, shouldn’t be a long day... probably will even before well before both games start 

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5 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

This is why we don’t throw huge totals out as forecasts 3 days before game time...go conservative.  That first BOX map was destined to go down in flames...

Ha. Then I see State College wasn't the only one going big on this one when perhaps they shouldn't have. Even as late as last night, they had the 8-12  inch gradient running through Harrisburg, PA to just north of Allentown, PA which many thought was considerably overdone. Turns out we might have been right as they have backed off considerably with this morning's new forecasts and updates.

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7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Just catching up. Man, I may be wrong about the sleet getting a good fight. But we'll see, still have a feeling we'll see a fight between 06z-12z from pike to ASH.  

Looks like some of the guidance is starting to get a better clue on the surface track though...06z GFS finally came southeast with sfc low...still way too warm at sfc though but we are not going to see a track into interior SNE like it was attempting earlier. 

 

What makes you change your mind? I am not home. What changed on modeling? 

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4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It seems like the ice threat could be nasty close to BOS. Interior SW burbs to RI and even Kevin could be in for quite the icing event. It may be narrow, but sort of near and south of the 925 WF on NAM and closer to other side of CF. 

I think this is the one we’ve been waiting for in CT/ RI

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