STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: UKMET actually skirts the NE coast and emerges at Cape Cod bay. Thats a helluva front end thump in SNE though. Dead body found next to chicken coop, self inflicted, mouth stuffed with chicken pellets. That is a CRAZY subby zone again modeled from N Essex county to east of concord over to Rochester NH. 3’rd or 4’th model now to show that subsidence area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 This vaguely reminds me of an event last year (March 20 2018? that could be totally wrong) in which GFS insisted on warmer/minimal impact in the 48 hours leading up, contrary to Euro/RGEM, and GFS ended up being correct. And Harvey also back-pedaled bigtime. The synoptics may be totally different, but I have a Memento-tattoo that GFS can rarely pull a coop. My 6-12 call for Boston area from Wednesday may burn badly. I'm still skeptical a surface low plows into CT/MA. But GFS/RGEM show it, and others are trending that way. Why could this be occurring? If you start at hour 0 of tonights 0z GFS, and then scroll back for the equivalent Sat 0z timepoint in previous runs, it looks like the confluence / SSS over Quebec is not pressing down as much in more recent runs... in other words, the prior runs may have over-estimated the confluence? We'll see, but obviously a terrible 0z suite so far tonight... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 3 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: That is a CRAZY subby zone again modeled from N Essex county to east of concord over to Rochester NH. 3’rd or 4’th model now to show that subsidence area UK met hammers Eastern areas pretty good on the backside. Something I think has been on and off with modeling. 5h collapse of heights with a CCB? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: UK met hammers Eastern areas pretty good on the backside. Something I think has been on and off with modeling. 5h collapse of heights with a CCB? Meh the back side looks like 2 hrs /2.5 hrs and maybe .25 of precip at most for Bos / N shore . Unless you can find me something more impressive , I see more on cape w more QPF from 1 to 7pm but backside may not reach them to 3 or so . I dunno Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Meh the back side looks like 2 hrs and maybe .25 or precip at most in sne . Unless you can find me something more impressive UKMET was my reference and prior runs of every model at one point, just something that could happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderblizzard Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said: That is a CRAZY subby zone again modeled from N Essex county to east of concord over to Rochester NH. 3’rd or 4’th model now to show that subsidence area The UKMET alone has been showing that for several runs now... in the same exact spot. It's kind of odd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 19, 2019 Author Share Posted January 19, 2019 3 minutes ago, Thunderblizzard said: The UKMET alone has been showing that for several runs now... in the same exact spot. It's kind of odd. It probably has something to do with the phase up in ME, as everything consolidates up there. Don't really care..all of my snow is in the initial push, anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 That area of Precip in New Hampshire is between 2 best areas of forcing one of to nw one to se Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Just like the one in indiana Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 19, 2019 Author Share Posted January 19, 2019 4 minutes ago, tim123 said: That area of Precip in New Hampshire is between 2 best areas of forcing one of to nw one to se That, too....yea...low level stuff to the east, and mid levels nw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 3 km nam sets up coastal front from Kingston NH to Salem NH to about Tyngsboro at midnite -1 A.M. separates teens and temps around 30 pretty deep fetch of ENE winds to near 495 after midnite on nammy btv wrf is not as bullish on l.l warmth but 0z isn’t out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 19, 2019 Author Share Posted January 19, 2019 3 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: 3 km nam sets up coastal front from Kingston NH to Salem NH to about Tyngsboro at midnite -1 A.M. separates teens and temps around 30 pretty deep fetch of ENE winds to near 495 after midnite on nammy btv wrf is not as bullish on l.l warmth but 0z isn’t out Subsidence would have to be decently north of that cf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 4 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: 3 km nam sets up coastal front from Kingston NH to Salem NH to about Tyngsboro at midnite -1 A.M. separates teens and temps around 30 pretty deep fetch of ENE winds to near 495 after midnite on nammy btv wrf is not as bullish on l.l warmth but 0z isn’t out I'm excited to be in NE MA for this. Too close to the ocean but might see some mid-level magic for a while before a flip to sleet. I just need to pace myself and stay up late enough to see some +SN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Subsidence would have to be decently north of that cf. Seems like the subby bullseye was like Rochester wsw to MHT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Congrats Dendrite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 We have some experimental ensemble guidance (basically time lag the shit out of everything available in the short term) that shows an interesting story for PWM. It has a very high likelihood (~70%) for 12" of snow, but a low (~30%) likelihood for 16". I think that's a really nice forecast right now. I feel comfortable we hit a foot, less comfortable we hit that 18" top of the range on our website. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 See my post above re: steadily retreating confluence in successive guidance runs... thru 24 hrs, Euro is doing the same. I think this should yield a more NW track unfortunately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 4 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Congrats Dendrite Decent crushy crush for NW MA too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Just now, HIPPYVALLEY said: Decent crushy crush for NW MA too. It should thump for a time. Given that this is a WAA regime on steroids, it should pound 1+/hr for a while in the good stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 That super ensemble is like a 90th/10th at PWM of 9-18" and at MHT 7-16" But those are the only two cities we have south of the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Trends for BOS are interesting. It doesn't change the high chances for 4", but the chances for 6 and 8" have been decreasing. 12" all but disappeared in the latest run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 1 minute ago, OceanStWx said: Trends for BOS are interesting. It doesn't change the high chances for 4", but the chances for 6 and 8" have been decreasing. 12" all but disappeared in the latest run. Front ender looks good. Also, very dynamic day Sunday with a short term flash blizzard in the afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 19, 2019 Author Share Posted January 19, 2019 1 minute ago, OceanStWx said: Trends for BOS are interesting. It doesn't change the high chances for 4", but the chances for 6 and 8" have been decreasing. 12" all but disappeared in the latest run. How about KLWM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: It should thump for a time. Given that this is a WAA regime on steroids, it should pound 1+/hr for a while in the good stuff. Heading towards 12 years in Greenfield I have become very well acquainted with the nuances of SWFE type storms and needless to say I am very excited to watch this unfold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 1 minute ago, weathafella said: Front ender looks good. Also, very dynamic day Sunday with a short term flash blizzard in the afternoon. Definitely a short term threat there. It's all about the overlap between +SN and winds increasing. Also a nice signal for a flash freeze in and around BOS too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: How about KLWM? Sorry, not a location they run these for. We have to pick and choose cities because the ensemble is run out of DTX and they don't have the server space for a bunch of locations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzard24 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 TO MANY OF YOU AND WEATHER people are changing every time models comes . watch storm to colder than what models show . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 3 minutes ago, weathafella said: Front ender looks good. Also, very dynamic day Sunday with a short term flash blizzard in the afternoon. We pound for several hours and it will finally look like winter in Boston metro... but those higher totals > 8" are looking less likely. I had called 6-12 for Boston metro but barring a Messenger shuffle east (and this is a good synoptic setup for that), 4-8 looks more accurate from guidance tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 19, 2019 Author Share Posted January 19, 2019 Trimmed the southern edge, but same n of pike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 19, 2019 Author Share Posted January 19, 2019 Subsidence zone not as prnounced. Its actually a hair better for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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