RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 For the forgotten crowd: 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Blizzard conditions could become possible if we get enough falling snow on the backside of the storm, winds will be gusting near 50-60mph out of the northeast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Seems maybe a teeny bit slower Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 I think Chicago could see 12"+ from this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Minimal ice: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Well the trend is still ok. If everything holds the Leon push st 12z I think the pike region can more confidently entertain bigger totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, weathafella said: Well the trend is still ok. If everything holds the Leon push st 12z I think the pike region can more confidently entertain bigger totals. I believe so Jerry, I will go heavier further southward if the HIRES models come further south and colder with the main snow shield and surface low track. Watch the surface temps, it is possible CHH to BOS could see all frozen precipitation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 This would have some jumping. Sorry--despite what image I add to my post, it's showing the wrong map (advice welcome!). What I tried to post was the 90% probability amounts. Which showed a lot of 0". It would be a hoot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 4 minutes ago, weathafella said: Seems maybe a teeny bit slower Wouldn’t be shocked once it gets to the Mississippi we see further colder ticks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Minimal ice: That should help solidify what pack we have into a glacier. That way next week's rainstorm can just run off the top of it. Secure things until March.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, moneypitmike said: This would have some jumping. Yesterday’s map...like 24 hours ago...cmon man.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just catching up. Euro didn't move as much as I'd like but at least it's not going warmer anymore. Maybe even a slight tick back cooler at 06z. Still think it's going to be tough to really push that warm layer deep into this airmass with that type of confluence north. Icing threat seems pretty minimal now except maybe in a narrow band somewhere down close to south coast...even then, might not be enough duration or QPF for anything too bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 It's funny, I respect the warm push, but like the tracks closer to NAM type guidance. If that makes any sense. I could see this kissing the islands and near CHH. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 2 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: This would have some jumping. Sorry--despite what image I add to my post, it's showing the wrong map (advice welcome!). What I tried to post was the 90% probability amounts. Which showed a lot of 0". It would be a hoot. 1 minute ago, weathafella said: Yesterday’s map...like 24 hours ago...cmon man.... See my edited comment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 MPM trying his best to get EMA back for all his pain and suffering. Bottled up PTSD. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, CoastalWx said: It's funny, I respect the warm push, but like the tracks closer to NAM type guidance. If that makes any sense. I could see this kissing the islands and near CHH. What about for those of us west of CHH? Could we be all frozen? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Just catching up. Euro didn't move as much as I'd like but at least it's not going warmer anymore. Maybe even a slight tick back cooler at 06z. Still think it's going to be tough to really push that warm layer deep into this airmass with that type of confluence north. Icing threat seems pretty minimal now except maybe in a narrow band somewhere down close to south coast...even then, might not be enough duration or QPF for anything too bad. Amazon generator orders being canceled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: What about for those of us west of CHH? Could we be all frozen? About a 0% chance. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 3 minutes ago, Spanks45 said: That should help solidify what pack we have into a glacier. That way next week's rainstorm can just run off to top of it. Secure things until March.... Rainstorm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, ORH_wxman said: About a 0% chance. Why? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: MPM trying his best to get EMA back for all his pain and suffering. Bottled up PTSD. I'd take the 8" the map was showing, but I'd be disappointed given what's a much higher (more likely) total. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 50 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: 16” in ASH , prolly not 10-12 sounds fine I agree. Big range but I don't see any reason to deviate from 8-15'' here. I'm still not enthused about 18''+ totals in SNE. Models were closing ML centers at 00z and we have the H7 low tracking through NY State and the H85 low cutting right through SNE which is another flag to me for going huge. Never thought I'd say this but if we're QPF queening I'd probably go with the NAM look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Why? Cmon James. You've been onthese boards for like a decade now...this stuff isn't new to you anymore...do you honestly think you're gonna stay frozen with 850 temps 8C? You live on the Cape. 2 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 3 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Why? Think with your big brain, not your little one. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 5 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: What about for those of us west of CHH? Could we be all frozen? No way. Not with the low tickling your bum bum. Maybe a few inches prior to changeover. Then expect heavy rain, before flash over to some Ip and sn at end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 13 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Just catching up. Euro didn't move as much as I'd like but at least it's not going warmer anymore. Maybe even a slight tick back cooler at 06z. Still think it's going to be tough to really push that warm layer deep into this airmass with that type of confluence north. Icing threat seems pretty minimal now except maybe in a narrow band somewhere down close to south coast...even then, might not be enough duration or QPF for anything too bad. Euro makes me nervous for the ice threat. Wish I could see a sounding. +7 at 850 is alot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Euro makes me nervous for the ice threat. Wish I could see a sounding. +7 at 850 is alot There will def be some ZR but I seems that the residence time and total QPF after the flip is going to be short of big time numbers. There's def still a chance in a small zone down in S CT somewhere though. Can't totally ignore it. I still think in the end, it will end up a bit sleetier than the euro shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 James, Take them off!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 11 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Cmon James. You've been onthese boards for like a decade now...this stuff isn't new to you anymore...do you honestly think you're gonna stay frozen with 850 temps 8C? You live on the Cape. It helps for those of us who remember the 80s and early 90s to know whats going to happen with a storm like this lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Euro is one the warmer side of guidance now, even at the surface. It brings the 32F line into LWM and 495 area. Have a hard time believing that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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