MarkO Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 That'd cause some serious power outages without the snow. I agree (with generally everyone) who think the CAD will overperform. I think this storm is going to be more problematic than general population thinks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuildingScienceWx Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 On 1/17/2019 at 6:46 PM, dendrite said: Thatwill be IP in NH and most of MA. Expand What are your thoughts on my area in Bethany, CT? I'm just SW of the 1.0" reading. I have a feeling I'm in a location primed for ZR with this storm... Which is not a good thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Someone care to break out the "SWFE of yore" T-Shirt that @Arnold214 created? Goes back to like 2007. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 On 1/17/2019 at 6:49 PM, Damage In Tolland said: Like Spanker in DXR and Marky thinking plain rain and 35-45. Maybe in ACY. Not CT Expand I'll say this....a change rain is still possible. But it is just going to take a much more amped solution than what any model is spitting out today. We will need to go back to the solutions that attempted to cut the low inland...that will cut off the CAD dewpoint source from the N and NW...you'd still get a lot of ZR even on a track that tried to rip to ALB but the latent heat would eventually succeed even if the low at the last second formed an appendage out over block island or something. I think that type of track is becoming a lot less likely now. We've lost most of the northwest outliers even on the ensembles. There's still a few so we can't rule it out, but assuming the globals have the right idea, nobody is going to sniff freezing in CT outside of the GON region over to maybe the immediate coastline in SW CT but even there could be tough..the low is trying to string out to the east so SW CT's longitude keeps them colder...might even see rapidly falling temps before anyone else. I could see HVN never reaching freezing. Certainly just inland. Someone there could get a devastating ice storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuildingScienceWx Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 On 1/17/2019 at 6:59 PM, ORH_wxman said: I'll say this....a change rain is still possible. But it is just going to take a much more amped solution than what any model is spitting out today. We will need to go back to the solutions that attempted to cut the low inland...that will cut off the CAD dewpoint source from the N and NW...you'd still get a lot of ZR even on a track that tried to rip to ALB but the latent heat would eventually succeed even if the low at the last second formed an appendage out over block island or something. I think that type of track is becoming a lot less likely now. We've lost most of the northwest outliers even on the ensembles. There's still a few so we can't rule it out, but assuming the globals have the right idea, nobody is going to sniff freezing in CT outside of the GON region over to maybe the immediate coastline in SW CT but even there could be tough..the low is trying to string out to the east so SW CT's longitude keeps them colder...might even see rapidly falling temps before anyone else. I could see HVN never reaching freezing. Certainly just inland. Someone there could get a devastating ice storm. Expand Thank you, that answers my question. I'm 5 miles northwest of HVN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 On 1/17/2019 at 6:59 PM, ORH_wxman said: I'll say this....a change rain is still possible. But it is just going to take a much more amped solution than what any model is spitting out today. We will need to go back to the solutions that attempted to cut the low inland...that will cut off the CAD dewpoint source from the N and NW...you'd still get a lot of ZR even on a track that tried to rip to ALB but the latent heat would eventually succeed even if the low at the last second formed an appendage out over block island or something. I think that type of track is becoming a lot less likely now. We've lost most of the northwest outliers even on the ensembles. There's still a few so we can't rule it out, but assuming the globals have the right idea, nobody is going to sniff freezing in CT outside of the GON region over to maybe the immediate coastline in SW CT but even there could be tough..the low is trying to string out to the east so SW CT's longitude keeps them colder...might even see rapidly falling temps before anyone else. I could see HVN never reaching freezing. Certainly just inland. Someone there could get a devastating ice storm. Expand I'm wondering if there's enough QPF for that? We'll lose some in the beginning to snow and sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 On 1/17/2019 at 6:40 PM, MarkO said: Da Nile ain't just a river in Egypt Jerry. It's a little warmer. As a matter of fact it's showing rain over the Tolland Massif at hr 72. Expand It was quite similar to 6z, about 20 miles north vs 0z with the mid levels. I. No way, shape, or form did it move to GFS which was 150 miles NW yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 On 1/17/2019 at 7:01 PM, BuildingScienceWx said: Thank you, that answers my question. I'm 5 miles northwest of HVN. Expand You are pretty close to ground zero for the biggest icing threat. I think anyone near or just north of the Merritt in that area should be the most concerned. Basically an area bounded HVN up to Middletown over to Waterbury and DXR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 On 1/17/2019 at 7:03 PM, CT Rain said: I'm wondering if there's enough QPF for that? We'll lose some in the beginning to snow and sleet. Expand Yeah there may be enough thump of non-ZR at the beginning to save it from being really bad. Some of it will probably depend too on how quickly the WCB moves east. The trend has kind of been to scoot it out eastward a bit quicker which dryslots everyone faster. Prob why the qpf numbers are falling somewhat back to more reasonable levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A Moonlit Sky Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 On 1/17/2019 at 7:05 PM, ORH_wxman said: You are pretty close to ground zero for the biggest icing threat. I think anyone near or just north of the Merritt in that area should be the most concerned. Basically an area bounded HVN up to Middletown over to Waterbury and DXR. Expand Do not want this. Send the ice to Tolland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 On 1/17/2019 at 6:59 PM, ORH_wxman said: I could see HVN never reaching freezing. Certainly just inland. Someone there could get a devastating ice storm. Expand Hi. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 On 1/17/2019 at 6:59 PM, ORH_wxman said: I'll say this....a change rain is still possible. But it is just going to take a much more amped solution than what any model is spitting out today. We will need to go back to the solutions that attempted to cut the low inland...that will cut off the CAD dewpoint source from the N and NW...you'd still get a lot of ZR even on a track that tried to rip to ALB but the latent heat would eventually succeed even if the low at the last second formed an appendage out over block island or something. I think that type of track is becoming a lot less likely now. We've lost most of the northwest outliers even on the ensembles. There's still a few so we can't rule it out, but assuming the globals have the right idea, nobody is going to sniff freezing in CT outside of the GON region over to maybe the immediate coastline in SW CT but even there could be tough..the low is trying to string out to the east so SW CT's longitude keeps them colder...might even see rapidly falling temps before anyone else. I could see HVN never reaching freezing. Certainly just inland. Someone there could get a devastating ice storm. Expand Hello. Just wanted to say thank you and to the others who really do add amazing input to this forum. I have not had a chance to really look at all the models in the HVN area. I work as a paramedic for AMR in New Haven and will be working this weekend. Just wanted to know what you think the impacts will be, start time and when the most intense part of storm will be. I appreciate it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Ryan, we may get to test some of our weird soundings. The midlevels get furnaced pretty fast down in SW CT but the sfc and boundary layer temps will probably be frigid still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 What are winds on the coast looking like with this? Might Bring the snow shoes and go out to Plum Island on Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 12z Euro looks a lot more realistic. The widespread 2" QPF in like 18 hours wasn't happening without closed mid levels advecting Atlantic moisture into the fray and slowing it down. The EURO looked more like a SWFE on crack but much more realistic with widespread 1-1.5" QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 On 1/17/2019 at 7:16 PM, powderfreak said: 12z Euro looks a lot more realistic. The widespread 2" QPF in like 18 hours wasn't happening without closed mid levels advecting Atlantic moisture into the fray and slowing it down. The EURO looked more like a SWFE on crack but much more realistic with widespread 1-1.5" QPF. Expand TWC maps are going to end up being off by like 50%. The media sensational BS dries me crazy . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 On 1/17/2019 at 7:03 PM, CT Rain said: I'm wondering if there's enough QPF for that? We'll lose some in the beginning to snow and sleet. Expand Rainfall rate may also preclude it from getting out of hand. If it's anything more than light intensity, most of what falls will go down storm drains as accretion becomes much less efficient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 On 1/17/2019 at 7:12 PM, ORH_wxman said: Ryan, we may get to test some of our weird soundings. The midlevels get furnaced pretty fast down in SW CT but the sfc and boundary layer temps will probably be frigid still. Expand I was just thinking that looking through BUFKIT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 On 1/17/2019 at 7:22 PM, snowman21 said: Rainfall rate may also preclude it from getting out of hand. If it's anything more than light intensity, most of what falls will go down storm drains as accretion becomes much less efficient. Expand Yup - that will be a factor too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 How's travel looking on Sunday morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Almost time for a zoinked NGW run, I can sense one coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 On 1/17/2019 at 5:31 PM, weathafella said: http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/forecast/text/state/MA.MRF.htm Expand I'm reading that correctly, it's showing BOS getting same or greater than AQW and ORE. I must be reading it wrong. On 1/17/2019 at 6:42 PM, ORH_wxman said: I don't think it can emphasized enough that this is not a classic in-situ or "eroding" CAD situation. This is actually being actively fed by pure arctic dewpoints from the north and northwest ageostrophically. This is not like a lot of other storms in that sense. Typically a high in this position keeps us all snow...so we don't really pay attention to how the CAD is working when we're getting wite to wire heavy snowfall. But I can already see a lot of people being surprised come Sunday wen their temps aren't rising anywhere near what they thought. Expand Would that tend to have any impact on ratios for areas that remain snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 On 1/17/2019 at 7:33 PM, moneypitmike said: Would that tend to have any impact on ratios for areas that remain snow? Expand No. The ratios are almost entirely driven by snow growth. If the lift is in the SGZ, then the ratios will be high. If not, then It's prob 10 to 1 baking powder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Eps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 12z EPS snow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 On 1/17/2019 at 7:33 PM, moneypitmike said: I'm reading that correctly, it's showing BOS getting same or greater than AQW and ORE. I must be reading it wrong. Would that tend to have any impact on ratios for areas that remain snow? Expand The max snow number is 8. So if the model says BOS is getting 8 and ORE 18, both will have 8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 On 1/17/2019 at 7:26 PM, CT Rain said: Yup - that will be a factor too. Expand Does FRZN accumulate more or less efficiently on snow on trees, or bare limbs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 On 1/17/2019 at 7:37 PM, powderfreak said: 12z EPS snow... Expand That map over the past several runs may have changed 1" over this way and i don't see that changing from here until go time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 I wonder if any of the NWS would put out an ice storm warning? Probably pretty hard to do since the area is hard to exactly pinpoint. If it was a stalled front with wave after wave traversing the same area I guess it would be much easier to do. Winter Storm Warning to Joe public would cover anything frozen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 On 1/17/2019 at 7:45 PM, wxeyeNH said: I wonder if any of the NWS would put out an ice storm warning? Probably pretty hard to do since the area is hard to exactly pinpoint. If it was a stalled front with wave after wave traversing the same area I guess it would be much easier to do. Winter Storm Warning to Joe public would cover anything frozen. Expand Gotta have high confidence in half an inch of ice and I don't think you can say that anywhere...esp at this time lead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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