dryslot Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Faster may not be a bad thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 too bad it stops at 90.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Slightly more amped and faster....still really juicy at least through 90h which is the final frame of the off hour runs. Pellet line is prob right near or just S of pike at 12z Sunday on the final frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 On 1/17/2019 at 12:08 AM, dryslot said: Yeah, 18z Euro more amped and going to come more NW. Expand Goal posts seem to be narrowing. I think tomorrow's 12z suite is sort of the lock and load time as by then the energy is well into the United States. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 On 1/17/2019 at 12:14 AM, ORH_wxman said: Slightly more amped and faster....still really juicy at least through 90h which is the final frame of the off hour runs. Pellet line is prob right near or just S of pike at 12z Sunday on the final frame. Expand Looks pretty close to 12z in terms of outcome. That is really juicy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 How is qpf looking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 If you look at hr90 on the 18z and hr99 on the 12z run @h5 its quite similar, Just was faster this run by about 3 hrs or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Where do you guys get the 18z EURO so quickly? Only out to 30 hours on weathermodels.com. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderblizzard Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 On 1/17/2019 at 12:19 AM, powderfreak said: Where do you guys get the 18z EURO so quickly? Only out to 30 hours on weathermodels.com. Expand Comes out quick on StormVista. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 On 1/17/2019 at 12:18 AM, dryslot said: If you look at hr90 on the 18z and hr99 on the 12z run @h5 its quite similar, Just was faster this run by about 3 hrs or so. Expand Main thing is it wasn't further east. To me that's the take-home message. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 On 1/17/2019 at 12:16 AM, CT Rain said: Looks pretty close to 12z in terms of outcome. That is really juicy. Expand Yeah basically model noise...the faster progression made it a little bit harder to compare apples to apples....but either way, changes were not large from 12z. Clearly that is going to be a pretty cold solution too at the sfc with the CAD sig already pointing the low south of the Cape at 90h. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Euro says fuk you GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WthrJunkyME Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 On 1/17/2019 at 12:18 AM, dryslot said: If you look at hr90 on the 18z and hr99 on the 12z run @h5 its quite similar, Just was faster this run by about 3 hrs or so. Expand Why is faster possibly a good thing? Track? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 On 1/17/2019 at 12:20 AM, ORH_wxman said: Yeah basically model noise...the faster progression made it a little bit harder to compare apples to apples....but either way, changes were not large from 12z. Clearly that is going to be a pretty cold solution too at the sfc with the CAD sign already pointing the low south of the Cape at 90h. Expand Probably a lot of pingers here - but that has a nasty ice storm look for NYC/CT Shoreline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 On 1/17/2019 at 12:20 AM, ORH_wxman said: Yeah basically model noise...the faster progression made it a little bit harder to compare apples to apples....but either way, changes were not large from 12z. Clearly that is going to be a pretty cold solution too at the sfc with the CAD sig already pointing the low south of the Cape at 90h. Expand Are any of you really honestly concerned about warming above freezing? I mean it seems like a no brainer for days now, beaten like a dead horse. It's cold and will be below freezing regardless of where the low or mid-levels go. It's frigid cold in the low levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 On 1/17/2019 at 12:20 AM, ORH_wxman said: Yeah basically model noise...the faster progression made it a little bit harder to compare apples to apples....but either way, changes were not large from 12z. Clearly that is going to be a pretty cold solution too at the sfc with the CAD sign already pointing the low south of the Cape at 90h. Expand Is it actually faster or is it more of where the closed contour is being developed? I've noticed through the week (especially when tracking this for the central Plains and Ohio Valley) that at times timing seemed way different, but then it looked to do more with where the development of the low was occurring. I'm also wondering if there is never one distinct area of low pressure but more multiple low developments along the way...one takes precedence then like "fizzles" and a different circulation develops. If this turns out to be the case this could have big time havoc on solutions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 On 1/17/2019 at 12:19 AM, powderfreak said: Main thing is it wasn't further east. To me that's the take-home message. Expand No, It was not further east, It was heading towards another big hit it looked like, It was still qpf loaded and that looked like it wasn't backing off of that either., We needed like 9 more hours on that lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Is this starting before 8:00 Sat nite and lasting into Monday AM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Harvey showed the EURO and said he think it has the right solution... 6+ nearly a lock in BOS methinks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 On 1/17/2019 at 12:14 AM, ORH_wxman said: Slightly more amped and faster....still really juicy at least through 90h which is the final frame of the off hour runs. Pellet line is prob right near or just S of pike at 12z Sunday on the final frame. Expand 3 hr snowfall rates are 1 to 1.5 per hour, Thumpity thump Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Keith Carson up here on NBC had a map ready to go at the 6pm news until he saw that 18z GFS and pulled it back lol, But he still threw out possible dbbl digits total in the 10-18" range, Just should have put up the map if you mention totals on air............lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Qpf map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 On 1/17/2019 at 12:30 AM, dryslot said: Keith Carson up here on NBC had a map ready to go at the 6pm news until he saw that 18z GFS and pulled it back lol, But he still threw out possible dbbl digits total in the 10-18" range, Just should have put up the map if you mention totals on air............lol Expand Some mets in the Boston market will put out a map with a GFS track and one with a Euro map...then give their own... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 On 1/17/2019 at 12:31 AM, HoarfrostHubb said: Some mets in the Boston market will put out a map with a GFS track and one with a Euro map...then give their own... Expand He is a big Euro guy too, He showed two maps of the track of the 12z Euro and the 18z GFS to show where the mixing could possibly be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 On 1/17/2019 at 12:23 AM, powderfreak said: Are any of you really honestly concerned about warming above freezing? I mean it seems like a no brainer for days now, beaten like a dead horse. It's cold and will be below freezing regardless of where the low or mid-levels go. It's frigid cold in the low levels. Expand No im pretty confident in low levels staying below freezing though these minor differences could matter for a place like BOS or even moreso the south shore from Scooter down to like GHG. A more amped solution might put the CF near BOS or even a shade west. But most of these solutions like the euro would pin it well south of BOS so even the coastline north of that line would stay well below freezing. My gut continues to be that this will make some more tickles southeast or at least the profiles will become colder even if the upper air itself doesn't trend that much. It's going to be very hard to advect warm air over this airmass with the southern stream getting pinched the way it does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 On 1/17/2019 at 12:23 AM, powderfreak said: Are any of you really honestly concerned about warming above freezing? I mean it seems like a no brainer for days now, beaten like a dead horse. It's cold and will be below freezing regardless of where the low or mid-levels go. It's frigid cold in the low levels. Expand I could see here ticking above 32 for a bit. Depends on the track. But inland is a lock for sub 32. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 GYX would have probably had a prelim map out if we didn't have that POS on friday.............................. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 On 1/17/2019 at 12:15 AM, powderfreak said: Goal posts seem to be narrowing. I think tomorrow's 12z suite is sort of the lock and load time as by then the energy is well into the United States. Expand Since Monday I have been steadfast in waiting until the Thursday morning runs to begin any hand wringing over model outcomes. I don't expect too many changes, but a slight tick or two SE with a slightly faster forward motion and qpf dialed back by about a third is what I am expecting. Anywhere from NY border and N of Mass Pike up to Dendrite and Dry Slot should be a general 8-14". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 On 1/17/2019 at 12:33 AM, ORH_wxman said: No im pretty confident in low levels staying below freezing though these minor differences could matter for a place like BOS or even moreso the south shore from Scooter down to like GHG. A more amped solution might put the CF near BOS or even a shade west. But most of these solutions like the euro would pin it well south of BOS so even the coastline north of that line would stay well below freezing. My gut continues to be that this will make some more tickles southeast or at least the profiles will become colder even if the upper air itself doesn't trend that much. It's going to be very hard to advect warm air over this airmass with the southern stream getting pinched the way it does. Expand Yeah exactly. Well said. And those that do get above 32 will rapidly drop in a short time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WthrJunkyME Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 On 1/17/2019 at 12:35 AM, dryslot said: GYX would have probably had a prelim map out if we didn't have that POS on friday.............................. Expand Ironically, we’d be watching Friday’s storm with great interest if “the big one” wasn’t coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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