SchaumburgStormer Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 12z HRRR keeps the freezing line wavering over mby for hours. Going to be quite the nail biter, as minor temp flux’s either way will drastically change local effects Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 Key thing to watch today is the surface low position and strength compared to 12z guidance. According to our latest MSAS analysis, surface low center is at 1003 mb east of LBB Texas with pressure trough extending northeast into Kansas, 1006 mb to ICT area. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoalCityWxMan Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 3 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said: 12z HRRR keeps the freezing line wavering over mby for hours. Going to be quite the nail biter, as minor temp flux’s either way will drastically change local effects With the way things have been trending it’ll hopefully set up just south. I mean 12 hours ago the freezing line was modeled to be in southern Wisconsin at that point so we take what we can get lol. The 12z NAM should be interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michaelmantis Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 Just now, SchaumburgStormer said: 12z HRRR keeps the freezing line wavering over mby for hours. Going to be quite the nail biter, as minor temp flux’s either way will drastically change local effects 25, heck 10 miles will make a huge difference in parts of extreme NE IL. I am 15 miles west of you, if I had to guess now both of us end up with an icy sloppy mess for most of this followed by 2 inches of snow and the tail end. Basically icing on the cake to give a fluffy snow layer to the cement that will form. Anyway, we should know by mid afternoon areas that are trending cooler/warmer than expected. This is one of those days where comparing model positions makes all the difference to the Nowcast: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ams30721us Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 4 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: Key thing to watch today is the surface low position and strength compared to 12z guidance. According to our latest MSAS analysis, surface low center is at 1003 mb east of LBB Texas with pressure trough extending northeast into Kansas, 1006 mb to ICT area. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 NAM coming in weaker yet again. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 1 hour ago, ConvectiveIA said: It’s a little weird and scary. We are in the bullseye now but it’s a skinny swath Not anymore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 12Z HRRR has us up to 8.4" (Kuchera) by 15Z tomorrow and still snowing. I was thinking the main impacts would be from this evening's rush into the overnight, but it looks like it will be rough well into tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 Ill be following SE MI closely tonight. The models have shifted just enough now that were going to get everything in the GTA. Looks like a widespread 2-3" snow followed by several hours of freezing rain followed by about 8-12 hours above 32F. The local media isnt discussing this system at all and since the forecast says 40F and rain during the day the public doesnt seem aware that tomorrow mornings commute is snow and freezing rain. Should be interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoalCityWxMan Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 1 minute ago, RCNYILWX said: NAM coming in weaker yet again. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Looks like it’ll be a pretty good run for N IL. Narrow but impressive band of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 Ha! The 12z HRRR really held on to that freezing rain over Northern IN for a long time. Not buying into those extreme amounts since it's just one run of one model showing this output but I couldn't help but share. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geoboy645 Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 I love how all the schools to my N and W have cancelled for today but my school hasn't. You can literally draw a line across the southern part of the state. West of that schools are closed while east of that schools aren't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 NAM still looks a few degrees too cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 14 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: NAM coming in weaker yet again. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Yep, and well south. Low tracks over Bloomington on the 3KM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TravisWx Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 Lol @ the past few runs of the NAM. Went from missing us to the north, to right in the bullseye, now missing us to the south. It'll be interesting how APX handles the headlines today. It will also be interesting to see the 12z GFS to see if it caves to the south trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 Just now, SchaumburgStormer said: Yep, and well south. Low tracks over Bloomington on the 3KM. any further impact on sensible weather? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 NAM still looks a few degrees too coldSurface temps not a big deal IMO, surface low track and strength is more important. We've clouded up, so temp rise will be advection driven over deep snowpack. Surface freezing line is way downstate still in central PAH CWA.Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 any further impact on sensible weather? Several inches of snow for much of the metro. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 4 minutes ago, Baum said: any further impact on sensible weather? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ams30721us Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 3 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said: Oh my! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 39 minutes ago, michaelmantis said: 25, heck 10 miles will make a huge difference in parts of extreme NE IL. I am 15 miles west of you, if I had to guess now both of us end up with an icy sloppy mess for most of this followed by 2 inches of snow and the tail end. Basically icing on the cake to give a fluffy snow layer to the cement that will form. Anyway, we should know by mid afternoon areas that are trending cooler/warmer than expected. This is one of those days where comparing model positions makes all the difference to the Nowcast: Will have to see if there is a difference that sets up just in the distance from Elgin to Cary Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 Just your casual 200 mile trend over 5 models runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 Wow, the NAM is really juiced (what else is new), depicting a stripe of 1.5"+ QPF from SPI to FWA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoalCityWxMan Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 Just now, AppsRunner said: Just your casual 200 mile trend over 5 models runs. That’s awful. Looks like the long range GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 Didn't realize that LOT issued a warning overnight for the NW part of the FA, including Rockford. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Chicago IL 324 AM CST Tue Jan 22 2019 ...Freezing Rain and Snow Expected Today into Wednesday Morning... ILZ003-004-008-221800- /O.UPG.KLOT.WW.Y.0005.190122T1500Z-190123T0000Z/ /O.NEW.KLOT.WS.W.0003.190122T1500Z-190123T1800Z/ Winnebago-Boone-Ogle- Including the cities of Rockford, Belvidere, and Oregon 324 AM CST Tue Jan 22 2019 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO NOON CST WEDNESDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow expected through Wednesday morning, mixing with freezing rain this afternoon. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 7 inches expected. Total ice accumulations of up to one tenth of an inch expected this afternoon. * WHERE...Winnebago, Boone and Ogle Counties. * WHEN...From 9 AM this morning to noon CST Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 Freezing drizzle started in Madison at 8:30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bl5585 Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 Just got a bit of mixed snow, sleet, and freezing drizzle here. Seemed like the heaviest portion was sleet and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 2 minutes ago, bl5585 said: Just got a bit of mixed snow, sleet, and freezing drizzle here. Seemed like the heaviest portion was sleet and snow. some enhanced returns over your area for some reason Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 RGEM is a tick south from the 6z run. Ends up a little slower/stronger with the low in north central IL at 12z tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoalCityWxMan Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 FWIW the ICON is south too and looks similar to the NAM, just not as far SE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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