hlcater Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 Just now, RCNYILWX said: You look pretty golden out there as things stand right now. I think this is not done trending yet, but you should do well even if it trends a bit more south and east. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk I’m in Iowa City for this one, so I’m all for that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 South enough where Northern tier of IL counties have more of an icing/frozen threat or is this approaching greater chance of snow? Trending toward more of a snow threat with some icing as well. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoalCityWxMan Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 1 minute ago, RCNYILWX said: You look pretty golden out there as things stand right now. I think this is not done trending yet, but you should do well even if it trends a bit more south and east. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Wonder how far it’ll go. Wouldn’t take much more of a shift to include more of the northern parts of the area in an area of possibly significant snow, would really be interesting if it keeps trending Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoalCityWxMan Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 Also interesting to note that each run of the hrrr has been coming in slightly south of the previous run since about 19z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 Just now, CoalCityWxMan said: Also interesting to note that each run of the hrrr has been coming in slightly south of the previous run since about 19z Models playing catch-up. Come tomorrow should be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 Wonder how far it’ll go. Wouldn’t take much more of a shift to include more of the northern parts of the area in an area of possibly significant snow, would really be interesting if it keeps trending Will check them out in morning but would be nice to see a southern lean in EPS to possibly foretell another shift in next cycle. As it looks now, I'd imagine midnight shift at my office will be considering going to a warning for parts of northern CWA. Also FWIW, 00z Euro has an axis of about 0.3" ice from near SQI to RPJ to just northwest of ORD to near UGN. 12z run had no ice accums in northern IL. Another thing to consider in headline decisions with 0.25"+ being threshold for warning for ice accums.Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 2 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: Will check them out in morning but would be nice to see a southern lean in EPS to possibly foretell another shift in next cycle. As it looks now, I'd imagine midnight shift at my office will be considering going to a warning for parts of northern CWA. Also FWIW, 00z Euro has an axis of about 0.3" ice from near SQI to RPJ to just northwest of ORD to near UGN. 12z run had no ice accums in northern IL. Another thing to consider in headline decisions with 0.25"+ being threshold for warning for ice accums. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Wouldn’t take much for ice accretion with temps so low. Could end up being interesting depending on how high the surface temp actually gets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoalCityWxMan Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 3 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: Will check them out in morning but would be nice to see a southern lean in EPS to possibly foretell another shift in next cycle. As it looks now, I'd imagine midnight shift at my office will be considering going to a warning for parts of northern CWA. Also FWIW, 00z Euro has an axis of about 0.3" ice from near SQI to RPJ to just northwest of ORD to near UGN. 12z run had no ice accums in northern IL. Another thing to consider in headline decisions with 0.25"+ being threshold for warning for ice accums. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Good to know, thank you for the info, always very much appreciated. If the trend continues you’ll be the one seeing the 0.25”+ of ice...or heck maybe even JOT will be Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 One thing about the Kuchera euro snow map. It has 10 inches in Cedar Rapids. However, the actual precip is only 0.60". We would need a pretty high ratio to reach 10 inches. If we do get 0.60" precip, I'd be more comfortable guessing 6-8 inches of snow. The track is just fine now. I wouldn't mind if the strength ramped up a bit more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 Last minute shift south is pretty compelling to say the least after the models seemed to stagnate on the same track solution for days. Won't be enough to deliver much snow for the QCA, but it will make what was looking like mostly a rainer into a kitchen sinker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 22, 2019 Author Share Posted January 22, 2019 Surface low goes right over Chicago on the 00z Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IllinoisWedges Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 06z 12km NAM coming in a tick south and weaker. Edit: Suburbs of Chicago receive warning-level snow and .2" of ice. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 22, 2019 Author Share Posted January 22, 2019 2 minutes ago, IllinoisWedges said: 06z 12km NAM coming in a tick south and weaker. And slower again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IllinoisWedges Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 1 minute ago, Hoosier said: And slower again. Same with the 3k. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 22, 2019 Author Share Posted January 22, 2019 This run comes a whisker away from getting sig snow in here lol. Any additional slower shift might just do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 3 minutes ago, Hoosier said: And slower again. Upper level low is slower taking on a neutral tilt which allows the surface low to gain some eastward movement before turning more to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ConvectiveIA Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 It’s 6 degrees colder here than was predicted yesterday for this time of morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 NAMs are a 33˚ and rainer here, while the Euro torches into the mid 40's. Either way, a lose lose. Going to be a mess with all this rainfall falling on top of the snowpack. Might need to make a few posts in the complaint thread soon... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
King James Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 Wife has a conference in the Loop (Chicago) today and ends at 4:30pm. We are down in eastern Kankakee county. I know you all can only answer the best you can, but is this a situation where I should be getting her a hotel room? She will be driving Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ams30721us Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 Yikes, just woke up to peak at the overnight data. Now looking more and more like a Icy mess today for the QCA with a bit of everything, followed by a few inches of wet snow overnight into Wednesday morning. 00z Euro now popping out 4"+ for the QC, although I would be inclined to believe more of a 1"-3" for the Metro itself, after a decent frz. rain and sleet early event. Just a mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevlon62 Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 Working up in Milwaukee today. Love the trends and thinking a midday precip start will yield a wintry drive home whether that be 43 or 94 south toward the border. After that - will we stay all snow on the northern tier is the beautiful nowcast question.Quick mention in the LOT AFD on their contemplated inclusion of McHenry in the WSW was a sign things have trended positive. Nice little about face shaping up - fingers crossed the local sled trails are on their way to a half-foot refresher.Sent from my SM-G935P using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 Actually concerned that I’ll be missed to the south today. It’s almost inconceivable that the 12z runs yesterday were showing sleet/rain here and not a lot of snow. I don’t know how he did it, but this is all @cyclone77‘s fault. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 May get interesting for my area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 NAM about 3 degrees too cold here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 33 minutes ago, King James said: Wife has a conference in the Loop (Chicago) today and ends at 4:30pm. We are down in eastern Kankakee county. I know you all can only answer the best you can, but is this a situation where I should be getting her a hotel room? She will be driving Think we are pretty much in the clear here are far as any wintry precipitation, but heavy rain will be a concern. Just to our north will be a different story. Probably best to play it safe for her. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
King James Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 Think we are pretty much in the clear here are far as any wintry precipitation, but heavy rain will be a concern. Just to our north will be a different story. Probably best to play it safe for her. Thank you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 Just can’t score anything this season in Minneapolis. Haven’t been outside yet but looks like 1/2” would be a stretch. Futility continues... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aleksey Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 NAM giving me 5-6" today. Temps don't seem to be a problem for my area, will be interesting to see how this unfolds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ConvectiveIA Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 48 minutes ago, AppsRunner said: Actually concerned that I’ll be missed to the south today. It’s almost inconceivable that the 12z runs yesterday were showing sleet/rain here and not a lot of snow. I don’t know how he did it, but this is all @cyclone77‘s fault. It’s a little weird and scary. We are in the bullseye now but it’s a skinny swath Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geoboy645 Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 MKX is saying 6-11" for me now. Woo! Edit: Also This is my first WSW of the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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