ConvectiveIA Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 Just now, hawkeye_wx said: Obviously, the 18z Euro and the first evening model runs have the eastern Iowa members excited. And central Iowa members by golly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 Feel bad for the people working the night shift tonight. Can’t remember seeing such a drastic change while other short range models are generally consistent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 3 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said: Obviously, the 18z Euro and the first evening model runs have the eastern Iowa members excited. Nice to see the southward shifts since 18z. Hope u guys get buried. The southward adjustments should keep more of a messy mix around here a few hrs longer than expected. Funny how many of us for days kind of expected southward adjustments and it waited till 18z today to do it lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 4 hours ago, CoalCityWxMan said: Models seem to be coming in a little colder/wetter/south. Wonder if these trends continue with 00z yep..and slower over 1 inch of precip for me into NE IL on the NAM. .. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 Yea I'm in IC for this one unfortunately with no chance of going back to CR, even though their total may double ours if things set up right. Either way, with these trends even IC may see a few inches out of this when nearly every model was forecasting a big rainer for here even just this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 may be just noise to a little slower then modeled WAA...but at 03Z dew points in the Chicago metro 0 to 4 below while 00z NAM at this time had 1 to 4 above Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 GFS trend at H5. All the models appear to be doing this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 39 minutes ago, Maneee said: Yeah-- you guys got over .5 an inch of precip. One would certainly wonder about how much of that will freeze. Yea that's my thought. As we get closer to freezing it won't accumulate as quickly. But when I see dews hold in the upper 20s that makes me think temps won't climb too aggressively Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michaelmantis Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 The timing of this event in N IL looks to be horrendous for the evening rush hour. My bet is some location trends colder than expected and around mid-day tomorrow conditions go downhill fast somewhere and people get caught by surprise. Interesting to follow this thread the past few days. The whole temperature rise just seems amazing if it actually occurs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 GFS cave some....but not as far south as others Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 GFS cave some....but not as far south as othersStill a very significant southward trend over past 24 hours and it was one of the farthest north/west models so had more distance to make up. I think most important item tonight is the trend on everything being south.Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 Yeah, the GFS went from rain, changing to a bit of sloppy snow for Cedar Rapids, to now clobbering Cedar Rapids with 6-10". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 look at the QPF increase on the GFS from just 12z this morning...almost doubled 12z MAX ..78 NE IA 18z MAX 1.27 N IL 0z max. 1.48 MLI Edit: NAM too but MAX SE of GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 GEM is south, but probably going to be as wet as last run. Part of the reason we’re seeing a shift with this cycle is that models are now slowing the ejection of the main vort where it now misses the more phased solution we’ve seen for days. The result is a slower system that eventually swoops north/northeast towards Chicago, but the slower progression means that QPF increases. I also wonder if ratios will be a bit better on the north end as more cold air filters in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 The models shifted south like I strongly thought it would, but I don't believe its for the same reasons that I had outlined. The changes are with the vort max itself, which shouldn't necessarily be affected by surface snowcover, especially as it is embedded in strong SW flow from that large upper trough to the west. It's clear that the vort has moved significantly south but I can't figure out why. Unless the models just handled things that poorly, but even that seems implausible as the shift is coming within 24 hours. Interesting case if these trends end up verifying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 00z FV3 is considerably slower than the 00z, but it's actually barely farther south. Cedar Rapids still gets into the mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 00z GFS and RAP really hit some areas hard with ZR Accums. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 22, 2019 Author Share Posted January 22, 2019 The initial freezing rain should accrete very efficiently with relatively light precip rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 Skilling looked like he was using the latest NAM runs. Had areas in the NW burbs staying in snow for alot of the event. Rockford, Bevidere,Crystal Lake coming in between 5-6". Will see if this verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 wow the 3km NAM came in JUICED. Don't think we'll be getting 17 inches but have a feeling we will be well into warning criteria snow totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 00z UK is pretty far south. The low track is Quincy to Chicago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 10 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said: 00z UK is pretty far south. The low track is Quincy to Chicago. Precip is pretty far south for that low location; you would expect the heaviest snow from about Waterloo to Madison with that track, but lower QPF in those areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 22, 2019 Author Share Posted January 22, 2019 Fyi, the 00z NAM is running too cold with temps upstream in KS/MO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 Euro came in south yet again. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 2 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: Euro came in south yet again. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk And more juiced. I’ve only seen a kuchera map for the euro, but it has widespread 8-10” amounts in Iowa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoalCityWxMan Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 Just now, hlcater said: And more juiced. I’ve only seen a kuchera map for the euro, but it has widespread 8-10” amounts in Iowa Can you tell how far south the southern edge of snow moved from 12z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 And more juiced. I’ve only seen a kuchera map for the euro, but it has widespread 8-10” amounts in Iowa You look pretty golden out there as things stand right now. I think this is not done trending yet, but you should do well even if it trends a bit more south and east.Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 Just now, CoalCityWxMan said: Can you tell how far south the southern edge of snow moved from 12z? From 12z? Probably a good 40 miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michaelmantis Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 2 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: Euro came in south yet again. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk South enough where Northern tier of IL counties have more of an icing/frozen threat or is this approaching greater chance of snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 DVN will need to seriously consider WSWs for the NW 1/3rd of their CWA. Challenging forecast of whether or not the 00z guidance’s drastic shift is to be believed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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