ChiTownSnow Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 2 minutes ago, beavis1729 said: Yeah...and ORD has a dewpoint of -7. Hard to fathom the Td increasing by 35+ degrees over the next 24 hours. Normally you'd lean against it, but the model support seems overwhelming. Hopefully the Ukie and NAM can win out...but, unfortunately, WAA can overwhelm everything if the conditions are right. I've learned to never underestimate WAA. Been burned too many times Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 21, 2019 Author Share Posted January 21, 2019 Just now, beavis1729 said: Yeah...and ORD has a dewpoint of -7. Hard to fathom the Td increasing by 35+ degrees over the next 24 hours. Normally you'd lean against it, but the model support seems overwhelming. Hopefully the Ukie and NAM can win out...but, unfortunately, WAA can overwhelm everything if the conditions are right. I still wouldn't be surprised to see the dews come up slower. If that happens, then it will be interesting to see if it delays precip onset at all. Hard to say since it also depends how dry it is aloft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 1 hour ago, Harry Perry said: Well explained Hoosier. I certainly don’t envy a forecaster in this position. SREF ensembles nearly literally spilt in two over my area. Half the members give us rain with little snow accumulation and the other half gives us a respectable amount of snow. The NWS torn on which direction to go so they go right down the middle. In my experience when you have high heights to your E/NE and skin temps at 0-10° for over 48 hours, a storm system is really going to have to pack quite the punch with WAA to boost temps to near 40° (as some models are hinting at) and this system just isn’t that robust. Don’t see it happening as some global models are depicting especially when some don’t even have a handle on current temps. Short range models will hopefully have a better handle on this. Another interesting system to watch. If its any help we were in a similar position along I-70 for the Sat. storm which gave us more freezing rain than originally expected here in central IN and less snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 Would like to see WAA of this magnitude in an April system with severe potential... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 The 18z Euro just came in and it's wayyyyy south. Like normal with the euro maps I post in here, this isn't mine. Seems that models are picking up on the widespread snowcover hanging things up? Whatever the cause, every 18z run has moved south in some capacity. In fact, it's so much of an outlier I'm almost tempted to ignore it and I probably would if it wasn't an outlier in my favor lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 22, 2019 Author Share Posted January 22, 2019 Definitely farther south. The southern cutoff is barely south of 12z though once you get into IL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoalCityWxMan Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 8 minutes ago, hlcater said: The 18z Euro just came in and it's wayyyyy south. Like normal with the euro maps I post in here, this isn't mine. Seems that models are picking up on the widespread snowcover hanging things up? Whatever the cause, every 18z run has moved south in some capacity. In fact, it's so much of an outlier I'm almost tempted to ignore it and I probably would if it wasn't an outlier in my favor lol. We all predicted there’d be a SE trend, just not this late in the game lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 7 minutes ago, CoalCityWxMan said: We all predicted there’d be a SE trend, just not this late in the game lol I was starting to lose faith in my initial SE call. But it's definitely happening today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 25 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said: Would like to see WAA of this magnitude in an April system with severe potential... I'd love to see a LLJ like this in April... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 1 hour ago, Indystorm said: If its any help we were in a similar position along I-70 for the Sat. storm which gave us more freezing rain than originally expected here in central IN and less snow. Now that you mention it I remember you saying that. Thanks for the input, definitely a similar situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 The NAM is going to be... interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 NAM rolling in now. Looks like some signific6snt changes in SLP position so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoalCityWxMan Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 2 minutes ago, ChiTownSnow said: NAM rolling in now. Looks like some signific6snt changes in SLP position so far Way south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 Way south UKMET and NAM FTW?Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoalCityWxMan Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 What a huge jump south on the NAM. Odd it’s remained so consistent the last few days up till now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 As a result also slower. Not sure if that will help or hurt the temp situation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 If the NAM/UKMET score here, well, I'm going to be hella wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 What a huge jump south on the NAM. Odd it’s remained so consistent the last few days up till now Not sure I've seen that big of a jump in near term before, but we also saw the large shift in 18z Euro, so something in the data getting into latest guidance. NAM had also been in general running south/colder.Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoalCityWxMan Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 Just now, RCNYILWX said: Not sure I've seen that big of a jump in near term before, but we also saw the large shift in 18z Euro, so something in the data getting into latest guidance. NAM had also been in general running south/colder. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk That is true. If the NAM ends up being right, parts of N IL would be in store for a snow/ice storm that looked to be mostly rain/frz rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 22, 2019 Author Share Posted January 22, 2019 30 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: UKMET and NAM FTW? Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Interesting run here in a way. There's not a lot of precip when it's below freezing, but then there's quite a bit when it pokes a little above freezing. It's not much above freezing though and the evening timing of that heavier precip means no assistance from insolation to help warm the ground, so it would probably continue freezing on the ground before the cold hits again. Let's see what the other models have to say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geoboy645 Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 2 hours ago, hlcater said: The 18z Euro just came in and it's wayyyyy south. Like normal with the euro maps I post in here, this isn't mine. Seems that models are picking up on the widespread snowcover hanging things up? Whatever the cause, every 18z run has moved south in some capacity. In fact, it's so much of an outlier I'm almost tempted to ignore it and I probably would if it wasn't an outlier in my favor lol. NNNNOOOOOOO!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 Enjoy your possible ice storm Calumet and Chicago posters per NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maneee Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 .10-.20 of Ice and 3 inches of snow? Sure! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 Interesting run here in a way. There's not a lot of precip when it's below freezing, but then there's quite a bit when it pokes a little above freezing. It's not much above freezing though and the evening timing of that heavier precip means no assistance from insolation to help warm the ground, so it would probably continue freezing on the ground before the cold hits again. Let's see what the other models have to say.Another thing I've been thinking is that if the lake can hold up warm fronts in the spring, the extensive deep and cold snowpack could have a similar effect, especially the weaker and farther south the surface low. Despite the magnitude of WAA aloft, I question how much will translate to surface because this is a special case, southeast not southwest winds blowing over extensive snow cover and starting out quite dry as well. The 00z NAMs owing to weaker and farther south surface low shifted icing zone south as well. Also note that though the COD shows a clear rain/snow demarcation in ptype algorithm over the area tomorrow evening and night, temps with rain are 32-33, so that speaks to your concern about icing even with marginal to slightly above freezing temps. We'll see what the rest of the 00z suite shows. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nelson Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 The NAMs. Huge jump in snowfall overall for these models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 0z nam would be something. Prolonged icing event here. I been thinking models are warming too fast given the arctic air mass in place and deep snow pack. Dews are low with temps in the teens. Evaporative cooling could offset major temperature increase. This could get interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maneee Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 Just now, StormChaser4Life said: 0z nam would be something. Prolonged icing event here. I been thinking models are warming too fast given the arctic air mass in place and deep snow pack. Dews are low with temps in the teens. Evaporative cooling could offset major temperature increase. This could get interesting Yeah-- you guys got over .5 an inch of precip. One would certainly wonder about how much of that will freeze. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 RGEM is south too. Not nearly like the NAM but still south of its previous runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 22, 2019 Author Share Posted January 22, 2019 7 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: Another thing I've been thinking is that if the lake can hold up warm fronts in the spring, the extensive deep and cold snowpack could have a similar effect, especially the weaker and farther south the surface low. Despite the magnitude of WAA aloft, I question how much will translate to surface because this is a special case, southeast not southwest winds blowing over extensive snow cover and starting out quite dry as well. The 00z NAMs owing to weaker and farther south surface low shifted icing zone south as well. Also note that though the COD shows a clear rain/snow demarcation in ptype algorithm over the area tomorrow evening and night, temps with rain are 32-33, so that speaks to your concern about icing even with marginal to slightly above freezing temps. We'll see what the rest of the 00z suite shows. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk The 850 mb warm layer isn't even super warm. I mean, 850's are progged around +3C to +4C around the I-80 corridor, so good enough for melting, but it's not one of those +8 or +10 deals. With the starting point of the temps/dews, this wouldn't even be a question about getting a significant ice storm if the surface high was positioned a bit differently to induce more of an easterly low level flow. But we are dealt the cards we're dealt and it's usually tough to pull off a lot of ice with a setup like this. The impacts could be magnified though because of the ground temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 Obviously, the 18z Euro and the first evening model runs have the eastern Iowa members excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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