Hoosier Posted January 20, 2019 Author Share Posted January 20, 2019 Just now, CoalCityWxMan said: The new NAM has bumped south and now keeps much of Chicagoland rain free Yeah, colder/weaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 2 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Yeah, colder/weaker. Still looks to squeeze out 3-4 inches in N IL. I'll take that and run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoalCityWxMan Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 8 minutes ago, ChiTownSnow said: Still looks to squeeze out 3-4 inches in N IL. I'll take that and run Me too. I’d take nothing over a 34 degree snowpack depleting rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 Yea I don’t really care how much snow I get so long as it isn’t freaking rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 7 minutes ago, hlcater said: Yea I don’t really care how much snow I get so long as it isn’t freaking rain. in depth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 29 minutes ago, hlcater said: Yea I don’t really care how much snow I get so long as it isn’t freaking rain. I'd much rather have snow as well, but if it is primarily a rain event it won't be the end of the world to me. We have a good 8" depth out there, and it's quite dense. Any rain will only glacier-ize it and cement it in good before the next arctic intrusion. There's signs we could see some clippers beyond this storm so hopefully they would refresh the snow pack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaveNay Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 6 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: I'd much rather have snow as well, but if it is primarily a rain event it won't be the end of the world to me. We have a good 8" depth out there, and it's quite dense. Any rain will only glacier-ize it and cement it in good before the next arctic intrusion. There's signs we could see some clippers beyond this storm so hopefully they would refresh the snow pack. Personally, I like to see either a nice sunny 34 degree day or a touch of rain to stop the constant drifting across my driveway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 All the globals are cutting it right through Iowa. It looks pretty good for areas along the MN/IA border that just got nailed by the northern band of the last storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 Models have actually trended NORTH so far on 00z with the exception of the Ukie and the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 Don’t hate this storm right now. Won’t get excited until it starts snowing though. Plenty of shifts possible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 New Euro has a nice snow from Waterloo to Madison. Looks like mostly rain a little south of that line. Southerly surface flow out ahead of the system looks to keep any freezing rain a very fleeting event for any given location. Since the system hasn't shown any signs of adjusting southward I'm expecting a primary rain event for here/QC. Possibly a very brief glaze at onset, and a few wet flakes at the tail-end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 20, 2019 Author Share Posted January 20, 2019 47 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: New Euro has a nice snow from Waterloo to Madison. Looks like mostly rain a little south of that line. Southerly surface flow out ahead of the system looks to keep any freezing rain a very fleeting event for any given location. Since the system hasn't shown any signs of adjusting southward I'm expecting a primary rain event for here/QC. Possibly a very brief glaze at onset, and a few wet flakes at the tail-end. I was looking at the Euro 2m temp progs, and it goes from 10 to 36 here between 6 am and 6 pm Tuesday. Not going to have much assistance from insolation either... that is almost entirely advective driven. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 4 hours ago, cyclone77 said: New Euro has a nice snow from Waterloo to Madison. Looks like mostly rain a little south of that line. Southerly surface flow out ahead of the system looks to keep any freezing rain a very fleeting event for any given location. Since the system hasn't shown any signs of adjusting southward I'm expecting a primary rain event for here/QC. Possibly a very brief glaze at onset, and a few wet flakes at the tail-end. LOT clearly not buying this. In fact allude to continuing frain even after temps go above freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILwxchr Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 6z NAM tracking the low up through Northwest IL. But shows an unusual setup for a heavier period of snow over much of Central/Northwest IL into Iowa. Not sure if I buy that or not considering it basically is where the low is tracking and one would expect some sort of dry slot there....or maybe not. We shall see if future model runs hold onto this new idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 12Z NAM interesting..continues south solution icy mess for N IL then convective cooling, I assume, turns it to snow , up to .8 inches precip falls Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 1 hour ago, ILwxchr said: 6z NAM tracking the low up through Northwest IL. But shows an unusual setup for a heavier period of snow over much of Central/Northwest IL into Iowa. Not sure if I buy that or not considering it basically is where the low is tracking and one would expect some sort of dry slot there....or maybe not. We shall see if future model runs hold onto this new idea. Agree with this. Seems as if we would get dry slotted with this path. But who knows at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
King James Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 LOT clearly not buying this. In fact allude to continuing frain even after temps go above freezing.Skilling hasn’t really backed off from forecasting ice yet. He’s had snow/ice and rain/ice in the forecast despite also forecasting temps in the mid-upper 30s. Potential to be a real mess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILwxchr Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 12z NAM (12k and 3k) sticking with this same idea of snowfall further SE along the low track from Missouri into NW IL. Interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 12ZNAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 My god the MOS has me at 6 right now!? Would flooding be a serious threat to the region with this system? I can’t imagine 2” of rain on top of all of this snow and ice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 Ill gladly take freezing rain from this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 GFS remains north of NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 When tracking the last event once I seen the blocking situation I pretty much shut the curtains on this one. went from extreme blocking too of course MIA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 4 hours ago, Baum said: LOT clearly not buying this. In fact allude to continuing frain even after temps go above freezing. We'll see. I def agree there may be additional freezing rain as temps rise above freezing due to the very cold surface, but even with that I believe it should be a pretty short window. Of course it only takes a very short period of glazing to create huge problems on the road. To me the deep southerly flow with rapid WAA screams a very short duration glaze event. Some areas, particularly further west out this way may already be too warm for the brief glazing. The 12z NAM solution is interesting, and to be honest I kind of expected the models to trend in that direction over the past few days. So far the globals, including the mighty Euro refuse to adjust southward, so I'm tossing the NAM solutions at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 38 minutes ago, UMB WX said: When tracking the last event once I seen the blocking situation I pretty much shut the curtains on this one. went from extreme blocking too of course MIA. eh...you discounted the last storm when you thought it was a arch way special. Your probably in line for 6". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoalCityWxMan Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 This will be an interesting storm, could be one of those cases where we see icing even if temps are above freezing as mentioned. Wonder what future runs will have to say Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 Just now, Baum said: eh...you discounted the last storm when you thought it was a arch way special. Your probably in line for 6". Haaa. Man it seems every storm for the last 3 winters we've had to fight for any scraps of snow from surrounding area's. No way I was getting sucked in to tracking this Rochester special. I conceded early to the AFD's and reading this thread. I gave all my fight to the last event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 Ukie remains south and colder than the rest of guidance along with the NAMs and the Euro to an extent. Against the GFS, the FV3 and the CMC. I *still* think we see this trend colder/south, but I guess we will have to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 Ukie remains south and colder than the rest of guidance along with the NAMs and the Euro to an extent. Against the GFS, the FV3 and the CMC. I *still* think we see this trend colder/south, but I guess we will have to see. The Ukie solution for the surface low makes sense to me. It's not like this is gonna be a negatively tilted wave, it's a sheared/elongated, positively tilted wave embedded in southwest midlevel flow. I still think the warmer models are not adequately accounting for the extent of deep, cold snowpack across the region, which *should* cause a sfc low adjustment southeast closer to edge of low level baroclinic zone. The NAM12 solutions have been interesting because they are wet bulb cooling the profile to snow despite what is typically a not good surface low track for snow in northeast IL. The 3km NAM is even weaker with the sfc low and looks to be close to all snow here. Perhaps this is a case in which they're handling the lower level thermals and dew points better coming out of a deep cold airmass. I find it hard to believe that we're gonna start the day with dewpoints in the low-mid teens here and push them to above freezing just hours later. This also could be a case even with a farther west low track that the warm front does get hung up because of the snowpack and prolongs icing concerns, plus the idea we could still be icing with temps above 32. Still lots to sort out with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 20, 2019 Author Share Posted January 20, 2019 1 hour ago, cyclone77 said: We'll see. I def agree there may be additional freezing rain as temps rise above freezing due to the very cold surface, but even with that I believe it should be a pretty short window. Of course it only takes a very short period of glazing to create huge problems on the road. To me the deep southerly flow with rapid WAA screams a very short duration glaze event. Some areas, particularly further west out this way may already be too warm for the brief glazing. The 12z NAM solution is interesting, and to be honest I kind of expected the models to trend in that direction over the past few days. So far the globals, including the mighty Euro refuse to adjust southward, so I'm tossing the NAM solutions at this point. Part of this of course comes down to the system strength. Weaker system would tend to promote weaker waa and vice versa. Still some differences with that. Totally agree that this setup does not suggest long duration icing in any particular location, or at least long duration icing with 2m temps below freezing. How long the surfaces lag is a question. I remember an extreme case of icing continuing with temps well above freezing back in January 2014, but the magnitude/duration of this preceding cold is not as impressive. Will have to watch the qpf trends too to see if there's any trend toward putting more precip in the window when temps are below freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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