Nelson Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Still has a nice look to it but there has been a weakening trend overall. Could be rain for those south of the WI/IL border but could be looking at a decent snow north of the border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nelson Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Looks like the main energy holds back resulting in a weaker storm overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 GFS has had the low running from Kansas City to just north of Chicago for the past couple runs. ECMWF has a similar idea. Both bring a big hit to southern Wisconsin. Unfortunately looks like rain for areas further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Hoosier, please delete this thread and let Cyclone start a new one before it's too late Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 18, 2019 Author Share Posted January 18, 2019 Watch the trailing energy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 2 hours ago, madwx said: GFS has had the low running from Kansas City to just north of Chicago for the past couple runs. ECMWF has a similar idea. Both bring a big hit to southern Wisconsin. Unfortunately looks like rain for areas further south. What side of town are you on? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 18, 2019 Author Share Posted January 18, 2019 54 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Watch the trailing energy. 12z Euro goes to town with this (pressure wise). Nice hit especially eastern sub. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
outflow Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 20 minutes ago, Hoosier said: 12z Euro goes to town with this (pressure wise). Nice hit especially eastern sub. And says let's do it again 3 days later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 18, 2019 Author Share Posted January 18, 2019 11 minutes ago, outflow said: And says let's do it again 3 days later lol... nice phase with the polar vortex. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 35 minutes ago, Hoosier said: 12z Euro goes to town with this (pressure wise). Nice hit especially eastern sub. It did that a few days ago further west out this way. Kind of get the feeling it's sort of kicking the can down the road so to speak. Hopefully today's Euro is on to something and blows up something nice for the east sub. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 2 hours ago, CheeselandSkies said: What side of town are you on? Live near downtown but work on the SW side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 18, 2019 Author Share Posted January 18, 2019 Quite a change in airmass from Sun/Mon into Tue if you're on the warm side. Also spells inversion hell with the WAA over an expansive snow field. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nelson Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Last few runs are too close, thermally, IMBY - would like to see if shift SE a bit. Either way, starting to look likely that someone in the immediate region is going to see more snow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 43 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Quite a change in airmass from Sun/Mon into Tue if you're on the warm side. Also spells inversion hell with the WAA over an expansive snow field. The point of all this snow is to cover up all of the mud! If I can squeeze 5 or 6 out this weekend or even more and end up with a potential foot snow pack (lost about 5 inches this week) it really sucks it could all be for not and end up with bare ground to maybe a dirty 2 or 3 inches moving into an epic cold snap. Clippers and the back side of next weeks storm my only saving grace. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Am I wrong to think this trends south due to the fact the system is shearing out as it moves east and that the snow and cold(especially if cold is under estimated) could shunt the baroclinic zone south into Missouri? I think models are cutting the system a bit too hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geoboy645 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 31 minutes ago, hlcater said: Am I wrong to think this trends south due to the fact the system is shearing out as it moves east and that the snow and cold(especially if cold is under estimated) could shunt the baroclinic zone south into Missouri? I think models are cutting the system a bit too hard. Please don't trend south. I want the max snowfall danig ti all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Am I wrong to think this trends south due to the fact the system is shearing out as it moves east and that the snow and cold(especially if cold is under estimated) could shunt the baroclinic zone south into Missouri? I think models are cutting the system a bit too hard. I've been thinking the same thing and suspect there will be at least some correction colder. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 1 hour ago, RCNYILWX said: I've been thinking the same thing and suspect there will be at least some correction colder. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Yeah I would also agree which is good because right now it brings cold rain here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 19, 2019 Author Share Posted January 19, 2019 5 hours ago, RCNYILWX said: I've been thinking the same thing and suspect there will be at least some correction colder. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Wonder about freezing rain possibility as well. Not your classic ice setup but there just might not be enough time to warm to stop it from happening entirely, even with waa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 It’s not going to be a huge system but GFS/Euro both paint a swath of 3-6” somewhere in IA/WI/Maybe IL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 looks like 12z GFS shifted SE a bit like some predicted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoalCityWxMan Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 GEFS shifted SE too. GFS has it going from the single digits to 37 in just a few hours. It’s possible, but seems unlikely and I’d also bet on a SE shift Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 NAM looks to be coming in South. SLP in Texas panhandle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Step in the right direction at least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoalCityWxMan Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 LOT highlights uncertainty with the system and its track in afternoon AFD, also shares concerns warm air may not make it as far north as some models think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 19, 2019 Author Share Posted January 19, 2019 32 minutes ago, CoalCityWxMan said: LOT highlights uncertainty with the system and its track in afternoon AFD, also shares concerns warm air may not make it as far north as some models think. WAA looks pretty robust, but it will be a cold start on Tuesday and the question is how fast the warming is realized at the surface. I gotta think there's a good chance for at least some front end snow/ice for a good chunk of LOT, and it wouldn't take much of a southeast trend to put more of the area in line for significant snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 This one's looking like a mix-bag for east IA/northern IL. Definitely doesn't look to be an all snow event. If we get some rain/freezing rain it will really act to turn the existing snow pack into a glacier, as it is pretty deep and shouldn't melt much during the event. Our snow pack will start layering up like lasagna, as there's already a thin layer of icy crust about 5" below the surface lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 20, 2019 Author Share Posted January 20, 2019 GFS and NAM 2m from 60-84 hrs. Without a high to the north, you'd normally lean more on the warmer solutions but it will be interesting to watch. The NAM struggles sometimes with WAA over snowpack. Also something to keep in mind... coming out of the deep cold, it could be one of those scenarios that roads/sidewalks are icing even when 2m is a little above freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 3 minutes ago, Hoosier said: GFS and NAM 2m from 60-84 hrs. Without a high to the north, you'd normally lean more on the warmer solutions but it will be interesting to watch. The NAM struggles sometimes with WAA over snowpack. Also something to keep in mind... coming out of the deep cold, it could be one of those scenarios that roads/sidewalks are icing even when 2m is a little above freezing. IND already mentioned this. They sounded concerned about some substantial icing for awhile Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoalCityWxMan Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 The new NAM has bumped south and now keeps much of Chicagoland rain free Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.