hlcater Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 Just now, Hoosier said: LOT made a good point about the wet bulbs, though that will be battling the waa so not sure how much it will slow the temperature rise. What I wouldn't do for a windfield like that in May. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 12z Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 Temps are definitely warming ahead of the pace as shown on colder guidance. The HRRR is pretty close to what's actually being realized, so I see no reason to deviate from it's output for now...And it's actually a bit too cold in some locations. Thus, still looks like front end mix (mostly FRZRA), before turning to plain rain for most the the area for the heart of the storm, then ending as a bit of snow. 0.10"+ ice, 1" snow and a lotta rain at ORD is the call. Looks like a nice hit for snow up by DBQ and RFD, with 6-12". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michaelmantis Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 1 minute ago, Chicago Storm said: Temps are definitely warming ahead of the pace as shown on colder guidance. The HRRR is pretty close to what's actually being realized, so I see no reason to deviate from it's output for now...And it's actually a bit too cold in some locations. Thus, still looks like front end mix (mostly FRZRA), before turning to plain rain for most the the area for the heart of the storm, then ending as a bit of snow. 0.10"+ ice, 1" snow and a lotta rain at ORD is the call. Looks like a nice hit for snow up by DBQ and RFD, with 6-12". Where is the big cutoff line looking at for snow? Looks like mid-way between McHenry county through Dekalb and west if I recall some of the NWS images. Just had school announced closing early here, worried about icing on rural roads. (Damn, going to miss out on a decent snow by 40 miles as the crow flies it looks like!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILwxchr Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 I shot this earlier this morning along I-74 south of the Quad Cities. Numerous vehicles in the ditch including some that were flipped over. Getting quite a bit of ice up here. Going to be heading to the cities this evening to document the snow portion of the system. Looking like a solid 4-6" if you believe the HRRR....probably like concrete too. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PajDcsKC4kg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 56 minutes ago, janetjanet998 said: Just drove from Pekin to the north side of PIA...there was some liquid on my car..not frozen car temp 34 in pekin and 32 north side Yea it's weird cuz our temps were several degrees below freezing so not sure why it didn't freeze Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ams30721us Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 Roads are already a mess out this way. Everyone affected by ice please be careful!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 22, 2019 Author Share Posted January 22, 2019 16 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: Temps are definitely warming ahead of the pace as shown on colder guidance. The HRRR is pretty close to what's actually being realized, so I see no reason to deviate from it's output for now...And it's actually a bit too cold in some locations. Thus, still looks like front end mix (mostly FRZRA), before turning to plain rain for most the the area for the heart of the storm, then ending as a bit of snow. 0.10"+ ice, 1" snow and a lotta rain at ORD is the call. Looks like a nice hit for snow up by DBQ and RFD, with 6-12". One of the places it's too cold is in southern LOT. Even around here, temps are already near 30. HRRR has freezing temps hanging on here through 6 pm, but I can't see it at this rate, even accounting for periods when the temp may stagnate with precip/wet bulbing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 DMX trimmed a few more counties off their warning. Euro would be quite nice overnight but I’m certainly not holding my breath. Looking good for southeast Iowa though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 22, 2019 Author Share Posted January 22, 2019 19z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 Total crapshoot for mby. Slight adjustments in track and/or WWA will make huge differences in sensible weather at ground level. Expecting ice to snow to rain for a short period, back to snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ams30721us Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 12z Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 Nam was definitely way too cold like several people noted. I'm shocked though given the precedent arctic air mass and snow pack. Goes to show you aggressive WAA can overcome a lot. Already at or slightly above freezing here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michaelmantis Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 Just now, SchaumburgStormer said: Total crapshoot for mby. Slight adjustments in track and/or WWA will make huge differences in sensible weather at ground level. Expecting ice to snow to rain for a short period, back to snow. Yep, our general area seems to be a mixed bag. The first round of icing here was pretty back on rural roads and school got called early (worried about delays with buses). Need at least a fresh layer of snow to end it all off, the landscape is looking pretty ragged with dirty snow and slush! So far the NWS Chicago call of a Dixon to Elgin to Waukegan line seems sensible giving where temps are. My backyard weather station went from 19 degrees to 27 (currently) in just a few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 3 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said: Nam was definitely way too cold like several people noted. I'm shocked though given the precedent arctic air mass and snow pack. Goes to show you aggressive WAA can overcome a lot. Already at or slightly above freezing here It repeatedly initialized several degrees too cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 So has anyone gone through the cycle over to rain from the onset of the system. Just trying to see the time it takes for the ground temps to get above freezing, after the air temps go above … Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 22, 2019 Author Share Posted January 22, 2019 10 minutes ago, mimillman said: It repeatedly initialized several degrees too cold Mentioned a few days ago that the NAM seems to repeatedly struggle in WAA regimes over snowpack. I don't know what it is. And other times it will have lower temps when it thinks there is snow on the ground when there isn't. I would definitely lean more on its thermal profiles in situations with an arctic high to the north that feeds in a supply of cold/dry air. This ain't one of those setups. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 1 hour ago, michaelmantis said: Where is the big cutoff line looking at for snow? Looks like mid-way between McHenry county through Dekalb and west if I recall some of the NWS images. Just had school announced closing early here, worried about icing on rural roads. (Damn, going to miss out on a decent snow by 40 miles as the crow flies it looks like!) The really sharp cutoff will be around DeKalb up to Fox Lake it looks like, for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 48 minutes ago, Hoosier said: One of the places it's too cold is in southern LOT. Even around here, temps are already near 30. HRRR has freezing temps hanging on here through 6 pm, but I can't see it at this rate, even accounting for periods when the temp may stagnate with precip/wet bulbing. Temps around 32 now for southern CWA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 28 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said: Nam was definitely way too cold like several people noted. I'm shocked though given the precedent arctic air mass and snow pack. Goes to show you aggressive WAA can overcome a lot. Already at or slightly above freezing here You shouldn't be shocked. This is like clockwork when there's strong WAA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 5 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: The really sharp cutoff will be around DeKalb up to Fox Lake it looks like, for now. Ouch that's painful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 21° and light rain here. Freezing on contact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 22, 2019 Author Share Posted January 22, 2019 33 at Kankakee and Pontiac. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 30 in northern Cook in Elmwood Park. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 8 minutes ago, Hoosier said: 33 at Kankakee and Pontiac. I wouldn’t be using IKK, ever. Light rain still freezing on contact here. Untreated sidewalks and roads are a skating rink. Trust me, I’m out in it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 On I-94 WB @ 85 - highway is a solid sheet of ice. Several slide offs. State Police even slid off tending to one of the calls. Moderate rain and 21° atm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 22, 2019 Author Share Posted January 22, 2019 8 minutes ago, Chicago WX said: I wouldn’t be using IKK, ever. Light rain still freezing on contact here. Untreated sidewalks and roads are a skating rink. Trust me, I’m out in it. Funny, I actually had your disdain for IKK in mind when I posted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 RN- in the city, no longer freezing on surfaces Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
King James Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 I wouldn’t be using IKK, ever. Light rain still freezing on contact here. Untreated sidewalks and roads are a skating rink. Trust me, I’m out in it. Was going to say, I can’t quite describe what’s going on out here but it’s definitely not just rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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