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January 21-24 Winter Storm Potential


Hoosier

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Temps are definitely warming ahead of the pace as shown on colder guidance. The HRRR is pretty close to what's actually being realized, so I see no reason to deviate from it's output for now...And it's actually a bit too cold in some locations.

Thus, still looks like front end mix (mostly FRZRA), before turning to plain rain for most the the area for the heart of the storm, then ending as a bit of snow. 0.10"+ ice, 1" snow and a lotta rain at ORD is the call. Looks like a nice hit for snow up by DBQ and RFD, with 6-12".

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1 minute ago, Chicago Storm said:

Temps are definitely warming ahead of the pace as shown on colder guidance. The HRRR is pretty close to what's actually being realized, so I see no reason to deviate from it's output for now...And it's actually a bit too cold in some locations.

Thus, still looks like front end mix (mostly FRZRA), before turning to plain rain for most the the area for the heart of the storm, then ending as a bit of snow. 0.10"+ ice, 1" snow and a lotta rain at ORD is the call. Looks like a nice hit for snow up by DBQ and RFD, with 6-12".

Where is the big cutoff line looking at for snow? Looks like mid-way between McHenry county through Dekalb and west if I recall some of the NWS images. 

Just had school announced closing early here, worried about icing on rural roads. 

(Damn, going to miss out on a decent snow by 40 miles as the crow flies it looks like!)

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I shot this earlier this morning along I-74 south of the Quad Cities. Numerous vehicles in the ditch including some that were flipped over. Getting quite a bit of ice up here. Going to be heading to the cities this evening to document the snow portion of the system. Looking like a solid 4-6" if you believe the HRRR....probably like concrete too.

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PajDcsKC4kg

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16 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

Temps are definitely warming ahead of the pace as shown on colder guidance. The HRRR is pretty close to what's actually being realized, so I see no reason to deviate from it's output for now...And it's actually a bit too cold in some locations.

Thus, still looks like front end mix (mostly FRZRA), before turning to plain rain for most the the area for the heart of the storm, then ending as a bit of snow. 0.10"+ ice, 1" snow and a lotta rain at ORD is the call. Looks like a nice hit for snow up by DBQ and RFD, with 6-12".

One of the places it's too cold is in southern LOT.  Even around here, temps are already near 30.  HRRR has freezing temps hanging on here through 6 pm, but I can't see it at this rate, even accounting for periods when the temp may stagnate with precip/wet bulbing.  

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Just now, SchaumburgStormer said:

Total crapshoot for mby. Slight adjustments in track and/or WWA will make huge differences in sensible weather at ground level. Expecting ice to snow to rain for a short period, back to snow. 

Yep, our general area seems to be a mixed bag. The first round of icing here was pretty back on rural roads and school got called early (worried about delays with buses). 

Need at least a fresh layer of snow to end it all off, the landscape is looking pretty ragged with dirty snow and slush!

So far the NWS Chicago call of a Dixon to Elgin to Waukegan line seems sensible giving where temps are. 

My backyard weather station went from 19 degrees to 27 (currently) in just a few hours. 

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10 minutes ago, mimillman said:

It repeatedly initialized several degrees too cold 

Mentioned a few days ago that the NAM seems to repeatedly struggle in WAA regimes over snowpack.  I don't know what it is.  And other times it will have lower temps when it thinks there is snow on the ground when there isn't.

I would definitely lean more on its thermal profiles in situations with an arctic high to the north that feeds in a supply of cold/dry air.  This ain't one of those setups.

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1 hour ago, michaelmantis said:

Where is the big cutoff line looking at for snow? Looks like mid-way between McHenry county through Dekalb and west if I recall some of the NWS images. 

Just had school announced closing early here, worried about icing on rural roads. 

(Damn, going to miss out on a decent snow by 40 miles as the crow flies it looks like!)

The really sharp cutoff will be around DeKalb up to Fox Lake it looks like, for now.

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48 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

One of the places it's too cold is in southern LOT.  Even around here, temps are already near 30.  HRRR has freezing temps hanging on here through 6 pm, but I can't see it at this rate, even accounting for periods when the temp may stagnate with precip/wet bulbing.  

Temps around 32 now for southern CWA.

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28 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said:

Nam was definitely way too cold like several people noted. I'm shocked though given the precedent arctic air mass and snow pack. Goes to show you aggressive WAA can overcome a lot. Already at or slightly above freezing here

You shouldn't be shocked. This is like clockwork when there's strong WAA.

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8 minutes ago, Chicago WX said:

I wouldn’t be using IKK, ever. Light rain still freezing on contact here. Untreated sidewalks and roads are a skating rink. Trust me, I’m out in it. :D

Funny, I actually had your disdain for IKK in mind when I posted.  

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I wouldn’t be using IKK, ever. Light rain still freezing on contact here. Untreated sidewalks and roads are a skating rink. Trust me, I’m out in it. 

Was going to say, I can’t quite describe what’s going on out here but it’s definitely not just rain
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