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January 21-24 Winter Storm Potential


Hoosier

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Well now the last four runs of the HRRR have shown temps staying below freezing much longer than previously forecast resulting in more ice accumulation in Northern IN. This is the latest run. I still think this overdone as temperatures do get close to 30/31 with heavier rain resulting in less efficient ice accretion, however, if this trend continues it may become a nowcasting event with a serious possibility of some areas in Michiana seeing 1/4 to 1/3 of an inch of ice.

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL  
1043 AM CST TUE JAN 22 2019  
   
UPDATE  
  
ISSUED AT 1043 AM CST TUE JAN 22 2019  
  
ALREADY UPDATED FORECAST TO EXPAND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY SOUTH  
TO THE I-72 TO DANVILLE CORRIDOR DUE TO REPORTS OF FREEZING  
DRIZZLE/RAIN IN AREAS NOT ALREADY COVERED BY THE EXISTING  
ADVISORY. MADE SOME ADDITIONAL CHANGES TO HOURLY TEMPS AND  
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA WHERE TEMPS WILL  
LIKELY NOT GET QUITE AS HIGH AS ORIGINALLY FORECAST
. TEMPS ARE  
STILL EXPECTED TO GET ABOVE FREEZING STARTING IN THE SOUTHWEST AND  
WORKING NORTHEAST LATE THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE  
WARMER TEMPS WILL BRING AN END TO THE FREEZING POTENTIAL AND WILL  
HAVE TO CANCEL PORTIONS OF THE ADVISORY AS THIS OCCURS. WILL SEND  
AN UPDATE NOW FOR CHANGES ALREADY MADE.  
  
  

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36 minutes ago, janetjanet998 said:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL  
1043 AM CST TUE JAN 22 2019  
   
UPDATE  
  
ISSUED AT 1043 AM CST TUE JAN 22 2019  
  
ALREADY UPDATED FORECAST TO EXPAND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY SOUTH  
TO THE I-72 TO DANVILLE CORRIDOR DUE TO REPORTS OF FREEZING  
DRIZZLE/RAIN IN AREAS NOT ALREADY COVERED BY THE EXISTING  
ADVISORY. MADE SOME ADDITIONAL CHANGES TO HOURLY TEMPS AND  
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA WHERE TEMPS WILL  
LIKELY NOT GET QUITE AS HIGH AS ORIGINALLY FORECAST
. TEMPS ARE  
STILL EXPECTED TO GET ABOVE FREEZING STARTING IN THE SOUTHWEST AND  
WORKING NORTHEAST LATE THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE  
WARMER TEMPS WILL BRING AN END TO THE FREEZING POTENTIAL AND WILL  
HAVE TO CANCEL PORTIONS OF THE ADVISORY AS THIS OCCURS. WILL SEND  
AN UPDATE NOW FOR CHANGES ALREADY MADE.  
  
  

Weird here cuz it shows returns over Peoria but it is barely misting. Not really much of a glaze on anything. Temps already up to 30. Only thing that makes me wonder is with dews holding in the mid 20s wonder if evaporative cooling will prevent rain and favor more mixed precip longer

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15 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said:

Weird here cuz it shows returns over Peoria but it is barely misting. Not really much of a glaze on anything. Temps already up to 30. Only thing that makes me wonder is with dews holding in the mid 20s wonder if evaporative cooling will prevent rain and favor more mixed precip longer

Just drove from Pekin to the north side of PIA...there was some liquid on my car..not frozen 

car temp 34 in pekin and 32 north side

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL  
1136 AM CST TUE JAN 22 2019  
   
UPDATE  
  
1130 AM CST  
  
FREEZING DRIZZLE, WITH SPOTTY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN SHOWERS, HAS   
RESULTED IN WIDESPREAD SLICK CONDITIONS AND THIS WILL CONTINUE   
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. LATER AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING, THE   
INTENSITY OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD INCREASE. THIS OVERLAPS STILL   
SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES WITHIN THE FORECAST, AT LEAST FOR A   
PERIOD, AND THAT WOULD FURTHER INCREASE IMPACTS TO THE EVENING   
COMMUTE DUE TO MORE PROLONGED AND HIGHER ICE ACCUMULATION. HAVE   
RAMPED UP THE MESSAGING SOME. THE ADVISORY MAY ALSO NEED TO BE   
EXTENDED IN TIME WITH WHAT LOOKS LIKE A LONGER PERIOD OF FREEZING   
PRECIPITATION. SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE FAR NORTHWEST AREA, INCLUDING   
ROCKFORD, CONTINUE TO LOOK ON TRACK. OVERALL THOUGH, THIS FORECAST  
FOR 6-12 HOURS OUT, IS RIDDLED WITH CHALLENGES THAT LOWER THE  
CONFIDENCE IN EXACTLY HOW THIS WILL PAN OUT -- NAMELY ICE  
DURATION AND SOUTHERN EXTENT OF SNOW.  
  
THE 45 KT LOW-LEVEL JET OVER THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT  
LOW-LEVEL MOIST ASCENT AND MAINLY FREEZING DRIZZLE THESE NEXT  
SEVERAL HOURS. WITH THE DRIZZLE, CONDITIONS ARE IDEAL FOR QUICK   
ICE ACCUMULATION, IN FACT SOME ASOS SITES HAVE REPORTED 0.04" TO   
0.06" OF ICE IN JUST THE DRIZZLE. SO ROAD IMPACTS WILL CERTAINLY   
BE PREVALENT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AS UPPER FORCING GRADUALLY   
STRENGTHENS...AND THE RATE OF THIS OCCURRING HAS   
SLOWED...PRECIPITATION MAGNITUDE SHOULD INCREASE ACROSS THE   
IOWA/MISSOURI BORDER REGION INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS DURING THE   
LATTER PART OF THE AFTERNOON. THE ROBUST LOW LEVEL JET WILL   
RESULT IN HIGH MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OVER THE AREA AND THUS   
CONCERNS FOR QUITE A BIT OF PRECIPITATION LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO  
MID EVENING. WHERE EXACTLY THAT HIGHER MAGNITUDE AXIS IS AND THE  
START TIME OF IT REMAINS CHALLENGING AS THE MODELS CONTINUE TO   
SHOW LARGE SPREAD IN 6-12 HOUR FORECASTS.   
  
THE SURFACE LOW IS AT 1008 MB (NOT THAT STRONG) ACROSS THE   
OZARKS, AND BEING THAT FAR SOUTH AND WEAKER IS LIMITING HOW   
QUICKLY THE SURFACE WARM ADVECTION IS INTO THE CWA. THE 32 DEGREE  
LINE IS NEARING THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA, HOWEVER THE WET BULB   
TEMPERATURE (PLAYS MORE INTO ICE ACCUMULATION ON MANY SURFACES)   
LAGS THAT CONSIDERABLY, LOCATED IN FAR SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. WITH   
TEMPERATURES ONLY WARMING THROUGH STRAIGHT ADVECTION DUE TO THE   
WIDESPREAD CLOUDS, FEEL IT WILL TAKE UNTIL EVENING TO SEE SURFACE   
WET BULB VALUES ABOVE FREEZING INTO THE CWA. THE AXIS WHERE THE   
HEAVIEST QPF WILL FALL LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING IS   
PARTICULARLY KEY, BECAUSE IF THAT IS THE CENTRAL CWA, IT LOOKS   
LIKE A GOOD PART OF THAT STILL COULD BE ICE. THAT SAID, THERE ARE   
A FEW MODELS THAT TRY TO QUICKLY INCREASE THE TEMPERATURE AND DEW   
POINT AS IT STARTS TO RAIN AND DO NOT TOTALLY BUY INTO THAT. FOR   
NOW HAVE INCREASED FORECAST ICE ACCUMULATIONS A TAD AND WE HAVE   
AGGRESSIVE MESSAGING OF IMPACTS TO THE EVENING COMMUTE. WIND  
SPEEDS WILL EASE LATER AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING FOR THE CENTRAL  
AND NORTHERN CWA AS THE NORTHERN TROUGH APPROACHES. THIS SHOULD  
KEEP IMPACTS TO POWER OUTAGES MORE MINIMAL GIVEN OUR CURRENT  
FORECAST ICE ACCUMULATIONS (0.10" TO NEAR 0.25").  
  
FOR THE NORTHWEST AND FAR NORTHERN CWA BY LATE AFTERNOON AND   
ESPECIALLY EVENING, CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE FOR SNOW AS THE -12C  
AND COLDER LAYER SATURATES AND FORCING STRENGTHENS. SOME OF THIS  
COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES INCLUDING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.  
  
MTF  

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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1139 AM EST Tue Jan 22 2019

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1139 AM EST Tue Jan 22 2019

First warm advection band of light snow is exiting far northern
Lower and working its way through eastern Upper. Area webcams
show only a light coating on some roads, with little impact other
than a temporary reduction in visibility. Looking upstream, radar
returns are starting to fill in over the central and western UP as
a sheared-out shortwave crosses Lake Superior. However, still not
much filling in up to this point over southern WI down into the
Central Plains as the more potent shortwave slowly gathers steam.
That should change soon as we head into the afternoon and the
system drifts farther east, starting to tap into a feed of Gulf
moisture.

The southward/downward trend in QPF continues across northern
Michigan with the latest suite of 12Z guidance for the impending
winter system. Both hi-res and synoptic guidance hint at this
likelihood for the rest of today through tonight. Have tweaked
PoPs and QPF accordingly, which generally reduced snowfall
amounts through daybreak Wed by an inch or so across most of the
area. At this point that wouldn`t affect the ongoing advisory
across the area, but it does suggest that upgrading to a warning
anywhere is looking less likely. Will continue to monitor trends
this afternoon and evening.

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