Bob Chill Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: But I have no freaking idea which way it will go. I have given up trying to figure this winter out. Its kicked my a$$ in every way. I am just along for the ride now. Ah ha! We're on the same page now. I gave up when it became clear the last weeklies run was wrong. Final straw for me. We no longer have weeks on end for things to "get right". That ticking clock is going to get really loud in the first week of Feb. Long range guidance has been a constant fail since the beginning of this boring winter. No reason to expect that to change. Watch the weeklies come in tonight and look like dirty ass but we walk right into epicness within 2 weeks. That would be a perfect thing to happen honestly. It will probably end up working like picking stocks. Just when you've lost all faith and capitulate and sell... it goes on an epic heater and you cry in your bowl of cornflakes. At least with snow we can't miss unless we sell our house in the next week and pack up and leave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 12 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I went way too hard trying to pound my point last week but when I saw the NAO blocking deteriorate and it became obvious that was likely to fail...this evolution became pretty inevitable in my mind. Typically big TPV displacements without blocking are quick hitters and when the TPV rotates through the cold evacuates quickly without blocking to hold the pattern. You then tend to get a yo yo effect. On top of that as the TPV rotates through NAM you tend to get retrogression in the high latitudes above it, which would pull the epo ridge even further west. It was already too far west, and as we head later in winter and wavelengths shorten we need it further east to even have the same effect. So the combination of a TPV retreat, a retrograding EPO, and the change to February climo would make a ridge in the east inevitable without NAO blocking and it became pretty clear that wasnt happening about a week ago. Everything since was the inevitable progression without that. So now that its pretty obvious we are going to lose some serious prime time climo...the question is do we recover and salvage something of the rest of winter, or does the trough go into the west, the ridge southwest of AK locks in and its game over. My gut says that is where the EPO is going to be. If we ever get serious NAO blocking that will force the jet to undercut and we will get another snow threat period. If the NAO continues to fail we will pretty much be in an eastern ridge most of the rest of winter. But I have no freaking idea which way it will go. I have given up trying to figure this winter out. Its kicked my a$$ in every way. I am just along for the ride now. FWIW, if winter totally fails the rest of the way, you were one of the first, including the experts, to sound the alarm and say things weren't going well and it didn't look like things were going to change. I'm sure you would rather be measuring snow with a yardstick, but at least you will have that feather in your cap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestminsterSnowCapitalMA Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 Looks like we are in for a series of warm ups and cool downs with some events like tomorrow's thrown in there. zzz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: It will probably end up working like picking stocks. Just when you've lost all faith and capitulate and sell... At least your picking stocks in your anology, not going on margin, that would be bad! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 3 minutes ago, osfan24 said: FWIW, if winter totally fails the rest of the way, you were one of the first, including the experts, to sound the alarm and say things weren't going well and it didn't look like things were going to change. I'm sure you would rather be measuring snow with a yardstick, but at least you will have that feather in your cap. Catching that wont erase my epic bust on winter in general. But there are mutiple strategies out there on forecasting. I am somewhere in the middle. I believe in making the best forecast each day based on the best evidence available at that exact time. That doesn't mean rip and read and flip around every model run. But it also doesn't mean sticking to an old forecast long past when new evidence has rendered it obsolete in some hope that things turn around and you can save face and this weird fear of "busting twice". That is bad imo. I don't flip based on one model run or some op at range. But when the NAO failed for like the 3rd time, and a clear pattern established itself...it forced me to re-examine what the likely pattern progression would be without the NAO and it didn't look good. But the NAO could flip next week and then JB and those like him will say "delayed not denied" and say I flip flopped and that was worse. I dont know, I only know I re-evaluate everything everyday and say what I think at that moment. That is what I think is best. To each their own. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vastateofmind Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 16 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Catching that wont erase my epic bust on winter in general. But there are mutiple strategies out there on forecasting. I am somewhere in the middle. I believe in making the best forecast each day based on the best evidence available at that exact time. That doesn't mean rip and read and flip around every model run. But it also doesn't mean sticking to an old forecast long past when new evidence has rendered it obsolete in some hope that things turn around and you can save face and this weird fear of "busting twice". That is bad imo. I don't flip based on one model run or some op at range. But when the NAO failed for like the 3rd time, and a clear pattern established itself...it forced me to re-examine what the likely pattern progression would be without the NAO and it didn't look good. But the NAO could flip next week and then JB and those like him will say "delayed not denied" and say I flip flopped and that was worse. I dont know, I only know I re-evaluate everything everyday and say what I think at that moment. That is what I think is best. To each their own. Yes, but -- your "middle ground" approach is appreciated, as well as your willingness to concede potential errors in your previous judgments and/or predictions. Without errors or mistakes identified...I don't learn. I don't hold anybody to their predictions...we're all aware of how difficult it can be to achieve any snow here at times. I'm still learning to see how all of the moving pieces of the atmospheric machinery interact to produce conditions conducive to colder/snowier winter wx (which, I think most of us want to some degree). You, @Bob Chill, @showmethesnow have broken down the long range discussions SO well in step-by-step fashion, particularly over the past three months...so thanks for that. And thanks for going out on a limb for longer-range predictions. It helps me a lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 17 minutes ago, frd said: At least your picking stocks in your anology, not going on margin, that would be bad! lol- far more disaster stories and/or bankruptcies have come out of trading on margin than winners. I've had a margin account for 20 years and have never touched it. I never asked for it in the first place either. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 28, 2019 Author Share Posted January 28, 2019 21 minutes ago, WestminsterSnowCapitalMA said: Looks like we are in for a series of warm ups and cool downs with some events like tomorrow's thrown in there. zzz Welcome to a typical winter around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 Looks like the 12z GEFS just blinked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar of Herndon Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 2 hours ago, Ji said: there was some weenie back in the early 2000s that had a thread called from the desk of Larry Cosgrove, Joe Bastardi and Gary Gray and he would cut and paste excerpts of their columns,newsletters,etc. It might of been @buckeye LOL Gary Gray is a blast from the past. I would wait impatiently on his email updates in late 1990s/early 2000. LOL! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar of Herndon Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 2 hours ago, buckeye said: lol, 'some weenie', as though you aren't one. As far as the thread you are talking about...I don't recall that one, (although that sounds like a good one). I haven't heard Gary Gray's name in years, I miss his non-commital writing style. I still have this one in my attachment files, (mention of the eta dates it lol): This is priceless! LOL! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 12 minutes ago, MD Snow said: Looks like the 12z GEFS just blinked. No surprise at all given its MJO cave earlier. On top of that, when I saw that pretty much EVERYTHING else agrees with the euro progression and NOT the gfs that was kind of a red flag that it was wrong. Maybe it's just too fast with the pattern progression and it does get there a few days later...but at least the way it was going was wrong. Of course, some of the mjo projections are starting to have the look of a hook back into warm phases. That might be game over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 I'm fairly certain that Gary Gray passed away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 re: El Nino/La Nina.. it might just be general Hadley Cell expansion in the Pacific. (I think we'll see 70s and 80s in January in 5-10 years.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 Many of the celebrity weather guys are excellent discussers of weather but poor predictors of it. We tend to be the opposite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 39 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: No surprise at all given its MJO cave earlier. On top of that, when I saw that pretty much EVERYTHING else agrees with the euro progression and NOT the gfs that was kind of a red flag that it was wrong. Maybe it's just too fast with the pattern progression and it does get there a few days later...but at least the way it was going was wrong. Of course, some of the mjo projections are starting to have the look of a hook back into warm phases. That might be game over. Dang...if that's the case, we are DUE in 2019-20...Three straight years below 20" for the corridor (even though we did hit 15" last year). But I have to wonder...when this winter is over (assuming we don't rebound), what will we say sank the winter (and why nobody could see it coming). There have got to be a factor(s) out in the Pacific we can point to and say "yep, that did it". This year seems to be it's own analog, but...I find it hard to accept that things just went bad for no foreseeable reason. Is it the MJO bully, or was something else at play as well? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 2 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said: Many of the celebrity weather guys are excellent discussers of weather but poor predictors of it. We tend to be the opposite. Tell me who here accurately predicted how this winter would go, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 3 hours ago, psuhoffman said: @Ji mjo updated and gefs just blinked. that new loopy loop is right where the other guidance kills it. Yea the gfs reamplifies the wave and heads towards 8 after but come on that’s a big step towards a cave. why is this different from yours? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 where is the heat wave?/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 3 minutes ago, Ji said: why is this different from yours? That’s yesterday’s and not bias corrected. This is today’s non bias one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: That’s yesterday’s and not bias corrected. This is today’s non bias one. okay...ill take todays non bias one then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 5 minutes ago, Ji said: where is the heat wave?/ Fits right in with the ensembles dropping temps around 2/7. I can also extrapolate the closed ridge near Hudson moving into the Davis Strait in 24 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 Just now, Bob Chill said: Fits right in with the ensembles dropping temps around 2/7. I can also extrapolate the closed ridge near Hudson moving into the Davis Strait in 24 hours yep...ensembles should be interesting. Thats a convoluted look. We dont do complex well but we do convoluted pretty decent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 If we can just get things rolling around February 10, that gives us a solid month or so to make something happen, and maybe even a bit longer for a hail mary. Come on, weather Gods. Do it for Ji! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 9 minutes ago, Ji said: yep...ensembles should be interesting. Thats a convoluted look. We dont do complex well but we do convoluted pretty decent We should probably pump the brakes on saying a Feb disaster is a lock honestly. Sometimes when the EPS or GEFS looks like dung d10-15, mean temps are above normal and snowfall is virtually non-existent. Seen it plenty of times. That stretch in late Dec/early Jan was like that. I'm just not seeing that right now. Like the 0z EPS for instance. 2m mean temps are below normal through our region from the 7th through the end of the run. Also, nearly half of the EPS members drop at least some snowfall and a dozen or so show a half decent to even a large storm. When you look at the mean h5 panels it looks like a steaming turd. But how do you get mean 2m temps below normal and a number of solutions with snowfall? The only way I can think of it within the suite there are 2 camps at odds with each other. Some are probably really cold and have a good pattern while others are a nightmare with warmth and no chance. Not saying I have a warm fuzzy feeling that we are walking into epicness but otoh I don't feel confident saying we're doomed. We'll know which camp is right within 5 days or so. Probably earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: We should probably pump the brakes on saying a Feb disaster is a lock honestly. Sometimes when the EPS or GEFS looks like dung d10-15, mean temps are above normal and snowfall is virtually non-existent. Seen it plenty of times. That stretch in late Dec/early Jan was like that. I'm just not seeing that right now. Like the 0z EPS for instance. 2m mean temps are below normal through our region from the 7th through the end of the run. Also, nearly half of the EPS members drop at least some snowfall and a dozen or so show a half decent to even a large storm. When you look at the mean h5 panels it looks like a steaming turd. But how do you get mean 2m temps below normal and a number of solutions with snowfall? The only way I can think of it within the suite there are 2 camps at odds with each other. Some are probably really cold and have a good pattern while others are a nightmare with warmth and no chance. Not saying I have a warm fuzzy feeling that we are walking into epicness but otoh I don't feel confident saying we're doomed. We'll know which camp is right within 5 days or so. Probably earlier. yep i noticed that....the 2 temp anomolies d10-15 were average or below average. I mean i have a hard time believing that Feb is going to be SE ridge and mild the entire month. My biggest fear is that it comes back after my period of losing interest. Post PD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: We should probably pump the brakes on saying a Feb disaster is a lock honestly. Sometimes when the EPS or GEFS looks like dung d10-15, mean temps are above normal and snowfall is virtually non-existent. Seen it plenty of times. That stretch in late Dec/early Jan was like that. I'm just not seeing that right now. Like the 0z EPS for instance. 2m mean temps are below normal through our region from the 7th through the end of the run. Also, nearly half of the EPS members drop at least some snowfall and a dozen or so show a half decent to even a large storm. When you look at the mean h5 panels it looks like a steaming turd. But how do you get mean 2m temps below normal and a number of solutions with snowfall? The only way I can think of it within the suite there are 2 camps at odds with each other. Some are probably really cold and have a good pattern while others are a nightmare with warmth and no chance. Not saying I have a warm fuzzy feeling that we are walking into epicness but otoh I don't feel confident saying we're doomed. We'll know which camp is right within 5 days or so. Probably earlier. Regime change is hard....and sometimes it takes longer than expected. My uneducated guess is not that the "models are wrong" as some like to say as the excuse but that the models are struggling with any changes that may be occurring and are not necessarily spitting out the final solution. Meanwhile it may snow twice this week and it "MIGHT NOT" get as warm next week. My mantra...the pattern hasn't changed until it changes. I wish it would snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 Just now, Ji said: yep i noticed that....the 2 temp anomolies d10-15 were average or below average. I mean i have a hard time believing that Feb is going to be SE ridge and mild the entire month. My biggest fear is that it comes back after my period of losing interest. Post PD Yea, it would fit history if the ugliness last longer than we want before something good comes along. Assuming the -pna dominant pattern is coming, it's reasonable to expect that to last up to 2 weeks at least. Pretty typical time cycle when dealing with a strong pna (one way or the other). Not a damn thing we can do about it. You know as well as I do, when a winter clearly never wants to get right for an extended period it can just as easily last the entire stretch versus flipping good late. I'd go with equal odds in Feb from how it looks now. Enough evidence has built up to say a period of warmth and hostile for snow is a lock. How long it lasts is something I'm not going to try and predict. Neither a good or bad outcome would surprise me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 34 minutes ago, Ji said: where is the heat wave?/ This is 12z Euro Wednesday 2/4 at noon. Pretty warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 You can't make this stuff up any better... Now that I capitulated (and I think PSU did today), EPS made a sig shift colder d9+. With another possible threat to boot. If we really do flip cold around the 7th and enter an active period, this winter will no doubt be the absolute WORST long range model performance I've ever seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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