SnowGoose69 Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 9 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: LOL WHAT??? kidding aside your right. The mjo differences are extreme. American products want to take the MJO into beast mode and head towards phase 8. The other guidance wants to just kill it basically right now before it even sniffs anywhere close to 8. One thing is...we should start to see one side cave really soon because the differences start like NOW. Seriously the GFS products amplify the mjo wave starting today and the other guidance starts the nosedive within the next day or two. This can't go on much longer. I’m never understanding of why killing it in 7 is a bad thing. If it just dies doesn’t it no longer have any impact? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 4 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: More amped than guidance has suggested seems to have been the tendency this winter. In general models want the kill it prematurely. Of course now that most guidance is advertising a collapse into COD just as it heads into the good phases, it probably happens. More amped has been the trend...when the mjo was in phases 4-7. But the last time it got to 8 it totally collapsed quickly and headed right back to phase 4. So is it really that much of a chance if it collapses in the middle of 7 instead of barely into 8 this cycle? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 i started a new Epic Feb long range thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 Just now, SnowGoose69 said: I’m never understanding of why killing it in 7 is a bad thing. If it just dies doesn’t it no longer have any impact? I've read that absent dominant other pattern drivers there is sometimes a lag effect based on where the MJO collapses. So a collapse in warm phases would linger the impacts of those warm phases longer than if it got into cold phases before collapse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 11 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: LOL WHAT??? kidding aside your right. The mjo differences are extreme. American products want to take the MJO into beast mode and head towards phase 8. The other guidance wants to just kill it basically right now before it even sniffs anywhere close to 8. One thing is...we should start to see one side cave really soon because the differences start like NOW. Seriously the GFS products amplify the mjo wave starting today and the other guidance starts the nosedive within the next day or two. This can't go on much longer. Wow are we seriously that close? (And could the next few days be an actual "make or break" point for the winter?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 Looking under the hood of the overnight ens paints a more interesting picture than the h5 mean panels. Ens are locked on a warm period from the 3rd-6th. Prob a shutout imo and possibly some 60s on one or more of those days if i had to guess. From the 7th onward there is a lot of divergence. Eps drops mean temps significantly and even hits below normal towards the end of the run. Snowfall chances go from basically zero on the 3rd-6th then increase to not too bad from the 7th onward on both the gefs and eps. So for right now the 7th marks the beginning of better conditions for winter wx. Will that keep getting pushed out in time? Beats me but I didn't think the ens were that dire at all. Shows the chance of a fairly short 4 day torch with improving conditions after. We have a helluva long time to watch and discuss so I'll end my thoughts here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 19 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: More amped has been the trend...when the mjo was in phases 4-7. But the last time it got to 8 it totally collapsed quickly and headed right back to phase 4. So is it really that much of a chance if it collapses in the middle of 7 instead of barely into 8 this cycle? Probably not. Do we really need the MJO to get a decent pattern though? If it dies and doesn't quickly reemerge in the bad phases, then its out of the way. We can just let the Nina background state do its thing unimpeded then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 3 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: I’m never understanding of why killing it in 7 is a bad thing. If it just dies doesn’t it no longer have any impact? Thinking the same thing. A violent and bloody death is far better than an amped up bull rush and stall through p5-7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Looking under the hood of the overnight ens paints a more interesting picture than the h5 mean panels. Ens are locked on a warm period from the 3rd-6th. Prob a shutout imo and possibly some 60s on one or more of those days if i had to guess. From the 7th onward there is a lot of divergence. Eps drops mean temps significantly and even hits below normal towards the end of the run. Snowfall chances go from basically zero on the 3rd-6th then increase to not too bad from the 7th onward on both the gefs and eps. So for right now the 7th marks the beginning of better conditions for winter wx. Will that keep getting pushed out in time? Beats me but I didn't think the ens were that dire at all. Shows the chance of a fairly short 4 day torch with improving conditions after. We have a helluva long time to watch and discuss so I'll end my thoughts here. I made a post in Banter awhile back talking about how the GFS was showing 60's post 300 hours and that I was surprised Bristow wasn't complaining. That said if we do in fact get a few days of 60s next week then the GFS was hitting that hard long before other models...even though it did lose the idea for a minute it did bring it back.....GFS MJO forecast for the win!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Looking under the hood of the overnight ens paints a more interesting picture than the h5 mean panels. Ens are locked on a warm period from the 3rd-6th. Prob a shutout imo and possibly some 60s on one or more of those days if i had to guess. From the 7th onward there is a lot of divergence. Eps drops mean temps significantly and even hits below normal towards the end of the run. Snowfall chances go from basically zero on the 3rd-6th then increase to not too bad from the 7th onward on both the gefs and eps. So for right now the 7th marks the beginning of better conditions for winter wx. Will that keep getting pushed out in time? Beats me but I didn't think the ens were that dire at all. Shows the chance of a fairly short 4 day torch with improving conditions after. We have a helluva long time to watch and discuss so I'll end my thoughts here. This matches my general thinking. There have been plenty of hints of conflict between the members on recent runs- can see it on mean snowfall and also individual member temp anomalies/probs. I said yesterday it looked like a 4-5 day warmish period. Beyond that my guess is the EPS will trend to a more serviceable pattern. Hopefully we see it move towards the stout blocking idea over the next several runs like the GEFS. That is probably the best way to get the pattern into good territory quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 12 minutes ago, Ji said: there was some weenie back in the early 2000s that had a thread called from the desk of Larry Cosgrove, Joe Bastardi and Gary Gray and he would cut and paste excerpts of their columns,newsletters,etc. It might of been @buckeye LOL lol, 'some weenie', as though you aren't one. As far as the thread you are talking about...I don't recall that one, (although that sounds like a good one). I haven't heard Gary Gray's name in years, I miss his non-commital writing style. I still have this one in my attachment files, (mention of the eta dates it lol): Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 @Ji mjo updated and gefs just blinked. that new loopy loop is right where the other guidance kills it. Yea the gfs reamplifies the wave and heads towards 8 after but come on that’s a big step towards a cave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 Just now, psuhoffman said: @Ji mjo updated and gefs just blinked. that new loopy loop is right where the other guidance kills it. Yea the gfs reamplifies the wave and heads towards 8 after but come on that’s a big step towards a cave. Let it die. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: @Ji mjo updated and gefs just blinked. that new loopy loop is right where the other guidance kills it. Yea the gfs reamplifies the wave and heads towards 8 after but come on that’s a big step towards a cave. Then that's not good...I mean, honestly, how much of a nail would this be? (you sound like this would kill the month, unless I'm interpreting you wrong) I'm trying to figure out whether to put this winter away or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 6 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: This matches my general thinking. There have been plenty of hints of conflict between the members on recent runs- can see it on mean snowfall and also individual member temp anomalies/probs. I said yesterday it looked like a 4-5 day warmish period. Beyond that my guess is the EPS will trend to a more serviceable pattern. Hopefully we see it move towards the stout blocking idea over the next several runs like the GEFS. That is probably the best way to get the pattern into good territory quickly. Now that 2/3rds of met winter is basically in the books, one undeniable message screaming at us is this winter absolutely does not want to settle into a stable pattern that provides multiple chances in the east. Can it change? Yea, sure.. it's possible... Do I really believe it will change? Ahhhh hellz no mang. Give me one legit Feb storm and I'll close the book and walk away from this torture chamber. We are exactly on the same page aren't we? Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 8 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Let it die. The MJO or this winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 31 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Frd is slacking though... waiting on all this good news from the experts... Haven't you heard @psuhoffman, just moments ago all the experts are saying winter is over now. They admit the obvious, after this week it is really warming up, no more snow. I don't have to worry about the weeklies anymore. I am a free man. Yeah Baby. Whew, I feel like a weight has been lifted from my shoulders. Almost a religious experience. If you want to chase unicorns that's cool, I am out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 2 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Let it die. I’m inclined to agree...but are we sure if it does there isn’t a lag that wrecks into mid Feb? Or worse are we sure it doesn’t do this??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Now that 2/3rds of met winter is basically in the books, one undeniable message screaming at us is this winter absolutely does not want to settle into a stable pattern that provides multiple chances in the east. Can it change? Yea, sure.. it's possible... Do I really believe it will change? Ahhhh hellz no mang. Give me one legit Feb storm and I'll close the book and walk away from this torture chamber. We are exactly on the same page aren't we? Lol. I gave up on the fantasy epic looks weeks ago. I just take whatever comes. I like tracking regardless. I haven't even hit 7" in my yard yet. I will take an inch here or there, and somewhere down the line a warning event or 2 will probably come along. If not, I finish below climo. No biggie. I was above last winter when lots of other places in our sub got squat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 4 minutes ago, osfan24 said: The MJO or this winter? LOL Just the MJO... for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 1 minute ago, frd said: Haven't you heard @psuhoffman, just moments ago all the experts are saying winter is over now. They admit the obvious, after this week it is really warming up, no more snow. I don't have to worry about the weeklies anymore. I am a free man. Yeah Baby. Whew, I feel like a weight has been lifted from my shoulders. Almost a religious experience. If you want to chase unicorns that's cool, I am out. Was it really that bad or just can’t bring yourself to look? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 2 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: I gave up on the fantasy epic looks weeks ago. I just take whatever comes. I like tracking regardless. I haven't even hit 7" in my yard yet. I will take an inch here or there, and somewhere down the line a warning event or 2 will probably come along. If not, I finish below climo. No biggie. I was above last winter when lots of other places in our sub got squat. Yeah I'm still hopeful it's delayed and not denied, but the delay is getting quite significant at this point. I'm not far from just rooting for just a small window where we fluke our way to a 2016 redux and call it a season. It's getting to the point where it will take a HECS to make this a successful/memorable winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Was it really that bad or just can’t bring yourself to look? Lol Denial Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 29 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Then that's not good...I mean, honestly, how much of a nail would this be? (you sound like this would kill the month, unless I'm interpreting you wrong) I'm trying to figure out whether to put this winter away or not. wow thats a disaster. winter might actually be over. Now we just hunt for one more fluke Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 21 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I’m inclined to agree...but are we sure if it does there isn’t a lag that wrecks into mid Feb? Or worse are we sure it doesn’t do this??? A Epic Bust so far by JB, and his call for the MJO be mostly in phases 8 1 2 this winter. Basically, what he forecasted is the exact opposite of what has happened so far. Jan. broke an all time record I think for the amount of time the MJO remained in phase 5, or close to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 Just now, frd said: A Epic Bust so far by JB, and his call for the MJO be mostly in phases 8 1 2 this winter. Basically, what he forecasted is the exact opposite of what has happened so far. Jan. broke an all time record I think for the amount of time the MJO remained in phase 5, or close to it. The inverse JB model is the highest scoring long range model in history. Backtested for decades. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 It's January 28th. Winter lasts until early April. We'll be fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 18 minutes ago, osfan24 said: Yeah I'm still hopeful it's delayed and not denied, but the delay is getting quite significant at this point. I'm not far from just rooting for just a small window where we fluke our way to a 2016 redux and call it a season. It's getting to the point where it will take a HECS to make this a successful/memorable winter. I went way too hard trying to pound my point last week but when I saw the NAO blocking deteriorate and it became obvious that was likely to fail...this evolution became pretty inevitable in my mind. Typically big TPV displacements without blocking are quick hitters and when the TPV rotates through the cold evacuates quickly without blocking to hold the pattern. You then tend to get a yo yo effect. On top of that as the TPV rotates through NAM you tend to get retrogression in the high latitudes above it, which would pull the epo ridge even further west. It was already too far west, and as we head later in winter and wavelengths shorten we need it further east to even have the same effect. So the combination of a TPV retreat, a retrograding EPO, and the change to February climo would make a ridge in the east inevitable without NAO blocking and it became pretty clear that wasnt happening about a week ago. Everything since was the inevitable progression without that. So now that its pretty obvious we are going to lose some serious prime time climo...the question is do we recover and salvage something of the rest of winter, or does the trough go into the west, the ridge southwest of AK locks in and its game over. My gut says that is where the EPO is going to be. If we ever get serious NAO blocking that will force the jet to undercut and we will get another snow threat period. If the NAO continues to fail we will pretty much be in an eastern ridge most of the rest of winter. But I have no freaking idea which way it will go. I have given up trying to figure this winter out. Its kicked my a$$ in every way. I am just along for the ride now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: The inverse JB model is the highest scoring long range model in history. Backtested for decades. You say a lot of spot on stuff Bob, but what you say here is Brillant !!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 5 minutes ago, frd said: A Epic Bust so far by JB, and his call for the MJO be mostly in phases 8 1 2 this winter. Basically, what he forecasted is the exact opposite of what has happened so far. Jan. broke an all time record I think for the amount of time the MJO remained in phase 5, or close to it. I can't blast him too hard because I came to the same conclusion as him this year. There have been years where he was putting out contradicting forecasts that I knew he probably didn't even believe himself. Times when he used justifications that didnt even match up things he has said in the past and things I know he knows...a year he was ignoring QBO and PDO influences on the pattern...EVEN when JD was posting them on his blog lol...and showing a cold/snowy forecast using dishonest analogs. This year...I came to the same exact conclusions he did. The only difference is I am not clinging to it and admitting things I got wrong where he will probably wait until its way way way too late to even attempt to spin or deny it before he finally admits he was wrong. I actually think he believed his forecast this year...it wasnt out of line with the majority, but at this point he probably sees the same issues we do and is just doing his typical spin (try to bleed another month out of the winter members) before he admits it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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