snowmagnet Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 5 minutes ago, frd said: Was hoping for a great March this year, but not really sure at this point. I think you can make the point that the beginning of the March might be good, but if the MJO once again goes into the warmer phases we lose the Pac in the process. But, way too early to speculate on that. It happens pretty regularly around here. People say “winter is over”, and then we get hit with one or 2 more storms that pile up quickly and then melt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 The weeklies tonight might be ugly which may not be a bad thing lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 24 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: GEFS is more encouraging than the EPS. Looks better out west and the stronger blocking is getting it done- starting to see lower heights in the east towards the end of the run. 1 minute ago, Ji said: 24 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: GEFS is more encouraging than the EPS. Looks better out west and the stronger blocking is getting it done- starting to see lower heights in the east towards the end of the run. Yes for sure but gefs has a mega mjo going into phase 8. Eps still sucks but made strides imo That seems to be the model war. GEFS and cfs is blasting the mjo towards 8. All other guidance is killing it barely into 7. 7 is a transition phase so it’s not like the mjo crosses a magic line and it’s good. In reality 7 starts as a warm signal and ends cold so there is a big difference between a wave near 6/7 and a wave near 7/8 and blasting towards 8. Unfortunately it’s gefs vs world here. Almost every other guidance agrees with the euro and no shockingly the geps is a torch day 16 with no end in sight. The hope is that even a compromise would be ok. Guidance has prematurely killed the mjo all year. And there is obviously some disagreement within the eps since there are some snowy members day 10-15. Gefs is downright weenie day 10-16. Im rooting for the gefs obviously but I’d like to see some blink by the euro guidance sometime soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 Just now, Ji said: The weeklies tonight might be ugly which may not be a bad thing lol I bet they look great- they will have an epic look for late Feb now, the same look they had for early Feb a couple weeks ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 I bet they look great- they will have an epic look for late Feb now, the same look they had for early Feb a couple weeks ago.Lots of delay of game flags this year. Well see. Maybe we do a pattern flip like January around feb 10 for a few weeks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 6 minutes ago, snowmagnet said: March snow is awesome. Just when you think Winter is over, we get a surprise. Also, Fairfax County schools have no days off in March so I’m counting on snow to linger this year. Was hoping for a great March this year, but not really sure at this point. I think you can make the point that the beginning of the March might be good, but if the MJO once again goes into the warmer phases we lose the Pac in the process. But, way too early to speculate on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: That seems to be the model war. GEFS and cfs is blasting the mjo towards 8. All other guidance is killing it barely into 7. 7 is a transition phase so it’s not like the mjo crosses a magic line and it’s good. In reality 7 starts as a warm signal and ends cold so there is a big difference between a wave near 6/7 and a wave near 7/8 and blasting towards 8. Unfortunately it’s gefs vs world here. Almost every other guidance agrees with the euro and no shockingly the geps is a torch day 16 with no end in sight. The hope is that even a compromise would be ok. Guidance has prematurely killed the mjo all year. And there is obviously some disagreement within the eps since there are some snowy members day 10-15. Gefs is downright weenie day 10-16. Im rooting for the gefs obviously but I’d like to see some blink by the euro guidance sometime soon. This is where I am/have been. I keep saying this, but in order for me to believe the advertised -NAO on the GEFS/CFS is legit, I need to see the EPS be a little more enthusiastic about the idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 4 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: This is where I am/have been. I keep saying this, but in order for me to believe the advertised -NAO on the GEFS/CFS is legit, I need to see the EPS be a little more enthusiastic about the idea. Hasn't the EPS been schooled by the GEFS at times the last couple years ( re HL blocking ) ? If the CFS and the GEFS have a -NAO then I be inclined to think the EPS will move to that in the next 3 to 5 days after things play out in the PAC side and the Atlantic side. HM had some good points on the NAO last night too. Seems what has been going on for a while will change finally, and the net effect is a more conducive background state for a developing -NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 @C.A.P.E. @Ji If the weeklies look good it doesn’t matter. But if they look bad it probably is a bad sign. That’s my take. Imo using the evidence all year the long range guidance has been misplaying the mjo. Beyond day 15 they keep messing that up and so trying to go to a look that as soon as it gets closer and the mjo impact gets correctly factored in evaporates. The tell here is 4 specific time periods. 1. In early December as soon as the mjo signal went ape all the guidance went warm and the cold late December look evaporated. 2. Through late December the guidance kept killing the mjo too fast and thus trying to establish a cold pattern too soon. 3. Second week of January. This time it went the other way. Guidance missed the mjo move through 8 and so suddenly the trough shifted into the east with almost no lead time warning. 4. Right after that guidance picked up on the mjo going are right back into warm and suddenly the great epic pattern evaporated. That to me is clear what’s going on. So if the weeklies again go right to a good look after day 15 that’s no different than all winter. Still no reason to believe it’s getting it right this time. It could be. I’m not saying no chance. But it depends what the mjo does. It hurts me to even say this but some guidance now kills it right at the 6/7 phase then cycles it right back into 6. I have no faith the mjo actually gets into 8 or worse doesn’t cycle back into warm. It’s obviously been favoring warm phases. Something is causing the forcing around the maritime continent and since we haven’t identified what (it’s not the sst, even without nino they aren’t a look that should favor this) how can we be confident it’s going to just stop? So I’d rather it look good than bad. But good won’t really make me feel that much better. Seeing the mjo guidance move towards cold phases and a response in the pattern and get it inside day 10 and I’ll feel better. We’re a long way from that though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 Vegas has odds for the weeklies: 2-1 weeklies start so-so week 2 being meh then progress into an epic sustained winter pattern thru the end 6-1 weeklies are run of the mill and back off on any epic winter looks aside from one 1-week panel 10-1 weeklies start off solid first week, then week 2 breakdown the PNA ridge and crap the bed from there thru remainder of the run 1-3 whatever weeklies show doesnt verify Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Round Hill WX Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 51 minutes ago, frd said: Hasn't the EPS been schooled by the GEFS at times the last couple years ( re HL blocking ) ? If the CFS and the GEFS have a -NAO then I be inclined to think the EPS will move to that in the next 3 to 5 days after things play out in the PAC side and the Atlantic side. HM had some good points on the NAO last night too. Seems what has been going on for a while will change finally, and the net effect is a more conducive background state for a developing -NAO. I can't speak for the last couple of years, but recently the GEFS has beaten the EPS in skill. This is the 11-15 day range over the last 90 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 2 minutes ago, Round Hill WX said: I can't speak for the last couple of years, but recently the GEFS has beaten the EPS in skill. This is the 11-15 day range over the last 90 days. Do you know when the forecast mean absolute errors for climatology equal those of the ensembles and GFS? From the above it looks like it could range from day 9-13 depending on guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 1 hour ago, frd said: Was hoping for a great March this year, but not really sure at this point. I think you can make the point that the beginning of the March might be good, but if the MJO once again goes into the warmer phases we lose the Pac in the process. But, way too early to speculate on that. Ok frd your mission should you choose to accept it is to scour the Twitter verse and post all the “expert” good news you can find. The survival of this forums emotional health is depending on you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Ok frd your mission should you choose to accept it is to scour the Twitter verse and post all the “expert” good news you can find. The survival of this forums emotional health is depending on you! I just found some really crappy news about where things might be going for week 3. I'll not post that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 5 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: I just found some really crappy news about where things might be going for week 3. I'll not post that. from Mikael Ventrice.....lol? Anyway..it showed normal temps for DC week 3 but much warmer than it had been Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Round Hill WX Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 22 minutes ago, dallen7908 said: Do you know when the forecast mean absolute errors for climatology equal those of the ensembles and GFS? From the above it looks like it could range from day 9-13 depending on guidance. I should not have used the word "skill" in my description of this model chart because it is measured in absolute error which by definition is different than "skill" compared to climatology. "Absolute error" tells us about the size of the forecast error based on the difference between the forecast conditions and what actually happens. Using temperature as an example, absolute error does not tell you whether the forecast was warmer or cooler than what actually happened; it only tells you about the size of the error. In other words, a forecast that is 5 degrees Fahrenheit too high would have the same absolute error as a forecast that is 5 degrees Fahrenheit too low. "Skill" compared to climatology are forecasts that have more accuracy than a generic "climatology" forecast of 30-year normal conditions. If the forecast is less accurate than using a forecast of climatological normals, then the forecast has no skill and is essentially useless. It would be interesting to chart the "skill" of the ensembles but for NWP, absolute error is easier for verification purposes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 this might 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: @C.A.P.E. @Ji If the weeklies look good it doesn’t matter. But if they look bad it probably is a bad sign. That’s my take. Imo using the evidence all year the long range guidance has been misplaying the mjo. Beyond day 15 they keep messing that up and so trying to go to a look that as soon as it gets closer and the mjo impact gets correctly factored in evaporates. The tell here is 4 specific time periods. 1. In early December as soon as the mjo signal went ape all the guidance went warm and the cold late December look evaporated. 2. Through late December the guidance kept killing the mjo too fast and thus trying to establish a cold pattern too soon. 3. Second week of January. This time it went the other way. Guidance missed the mjo move through 8 and so suddenly the trough shifted into the east with almost no lead time warning. 4. Right after that guidance picked up on the mjo going are right back into warm and suddenly the great epic pattern evaporated. That to me is clear what’s going on. So if the weeklies again go right to a good look after day 15 that’s no different than all winter. Still no reason to believe it’s getting it right this time. It could be. I’m not saying no chance. But it depends what the mjo does. It hurts me to even say this but some guidance now kills it right at the 6/7 phase then cycles it right back into 6. I have no faith the mjo actually gets into 8 or worse doesn’t cycle back into warm. It’s obviously been favoring warm phases. Something is causing the forcing around the maritime continent and since we haven’t identified what (it’s not the sst, even without nino they aren’t a look that should favor this) how can we be confident it’s going to just stop? So I’d rather it look good than bad. But good won’t really make me feel that much better. Seeing the mjo guidance move towards cold phases and a response in the pattern and get it inside day 10 and I’ll feel better. We’re a long way from that though. dude our entire winter may hinge on this mjo wave...if the GEFS is right...it could truly end epic. If all the other models are right...we are in big trouble. It will take a dramatic shift for the GEFS to be wrong though. Ive never seen it so robust Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Round Hill WX Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 1 minute ago, Ji said: from Mikael Ventrice.....lol? Anyway..it showed normal temps for DC week 3 but much warmer than it had been The maps he posted this morning had 2 different temp scales which gave the appearance of a massive torch in the east for the 1st week of February. It was deceiving as hell. Probably doesn't matter because it isn't going to snow either way! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 12 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: I just found some really crappy news about where things might be going for week 3. I'll not post that. I am not a stick your head in the sand kind of guy. What's the scoop? Besides I assigned Frd to find the good stuff. You have no such assignment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 3 minutes ago, Round Hill WX said: The maps he posted this morning had 2 different temp scales which gave the appearance of a massive torch in the east for the 1st week of February. It was deceiving as hell. Probably doesn't matter because it isn't going to snow either way! yea and that guy has been busting winter all winter too...we are going to get a massive torch in 1st week of Feb..but i think the map he posted was for week 3 which showed DC as normal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I am not a stick your head in the sand kind of guy. What's the scoop? Besides I assigned Frd to find the good stuff. You have no such assignment. Read the posts above. Its just more Twitter "expert" stuff. Not anything I would truly put any stock in. Was funny I saw your post just as I was reading that lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 14 minutes ago, Ji said: this might dude our entire winter may hinge on this mjo wave...if the GEFS is right...it could truly end epic. If all the other models are right...we are in big trouble. It will take a dramatic shift for the GEFS to be wrong though. Ive never seen it so robust LOL WHAT??? kidding aside your right. The mjo differences are extreme. American products want to take the MJO into beast mode and head towards phase 8. The other guidance wants to just kill it basically right now before it even sniffs anywhere close to 8. One thing is...we should start to see one side cave really soon because the differences start like NOW. Seriously the GFS products amplify the mjo wave starting today and the other guidance starts the nosedive within the next day or two. This can't go on much longer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 7 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Read the posts above. Its just more Twitter "expert" stuff. Not anything I would truly put any stock in. Was funny I saw your post just as I was reading that lol. Frd is slacking though... waiting on all this good news from the experts... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: LOL WHAT??? kidding aside your right. The mjo differences are extreme. American products want to take the MJO into beast mode and head towards phase 8. The other guidance wants to just kill it basically right now before it even sniffs anywhere close to 8. One thing is...we should start to see one side cave really soon because the differences start like NOW. Seriously the GFS products amplify the mjo wave starting today and the other guidance starts the nosedive within the next day or two. This can't go on much longer. More amped than guidance has suggested seems to have been the tendency this winter. In general models want the kill it prematurely. Of course now that most guidance is advertising a collapse into COD just as it heads into the good phases, it probably happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Frd is slacking though... waiting on all this good news from the experts... I am sure he will come through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: LOL WHAT??? kidding aside your right. The mjo differences are extreme. American products want to take the MJO into beast mode and head towards phase 8. The other guidance wants to just kill it basically right now before it even sniffs anywhere close to 8. One thing is...we should start to see one side cave really soon because the differences start like NOW. Seriously the GFS products amplify the mjo wave starting today and the other guidance starts the nosedive within the next day or two. This can't go on much longer. no man...i am saying if you look at the GEFS MJO forecast...it will take a massive shift in the modeling in that forecast to bust because its so robust! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 Just now, Ji said: no man...i am saying if you look at the GEFS MJO forecast...it will take a massive shift in the modeling in that forecast to bust because its so robust! Almost like being 6-3 then finishing 7-9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Frd is slacking though... waiting on all this good news from the experts... there was some weenie back in the early 2000s that had a thread called from the desk of Larry Cosgrove, Joe Bastardi and Gary Gray and he would cut and paste excerpts of their columns,newsletters,etc. It might of been @buckeye LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 Just now, leesburg 04 said: Almost like being 6-3 then finishing 7-9 or paying a QB 90 million guaranted to go from Epic pattern to not making the playoffs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 Just now, Ji said: or paying a QB 90 million guaranted to go from Epic pattern to not making the playoffs perfect!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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