January/February Medium/Long Range Disco

[BTRWx's Thanks Giving]

1 hour ago, SnowGoose69 said:

It’s not a big sample size but the tendency in El Niño winters where the SOI averages near zero is for March to be fairly lousy in regards to snow and cold.  As if we needed more bad news the ENSO models are becoming increasingly less loving of an El Niño in 19-20 recently too.   

But February those years rocked!

[Bob Chill]

12 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

March can be a great equalizer. March is probably the month with the greatest disparity between our two snowfall averages. A lot of ~6” DC area March snowfalls were 15”+ storms up here.  And a lot of sloppy insignificant DC ones were 6”+ up here. But while I don’t mind March saves like some on here that seem to be unrealistically picky about when and how it snows, that doesn’t mean I want to live dangerously like that every year. 

To each their own. I'm never picky. Dec struggles because temps in our source region aren't great most of time and wavelengths aren't favorable. Jan can be cold but we normally struggle with big qpf as snow. Feb will always be the best month whether people like it or not.

Deep winter for weeks on end is rare and always will be. It's neat that our area can get some deep winter periods but they are so rare that using that metric as a primary grade means one or maybe 2 winters a decade get a passing grade. In the end I don't care how anybody grades winter except me. I can't nor want to control how anyone feels. Winter wx is a very personal experience.

I do know that i'm a lot happier than many here. Lol. I also enjoy the technical side of all this. Great mental exercise. Most here just want us to tell them how much and when and don't give one iota about the technical side. I'm a prolific poster when there is potential while many others are only prolific when there isn't potential. Quite the dichotomy and it will never change. 

[BTRWx's Thanks Giving]

3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

To each their own. I'm never picky. Dec struggles because temps in our source region aren't great most of time and wavelengths aren't favorable. Jan can be cold but we normally struggle with big qpf as snow. Feb will always be the best month whether people like it or not.

Deep winter for weeks on end is rare and always will be. It's neat that our area can get some deep winter periods but they are so rare that using that metric as a primary grade means one or maybe 2 winters a decade get a passing grade. In the end I don't care how anybody grades winter except me. I can't nor want to control how anyone feels. Winter wx is a very personal experience. 

I do know that i'm a lot happier than many here. Lol. I also enjoy the technical side of all this. Great mental exercise. Most here just want us to tell them how much and when and don't give one iota about the technical side. I'm a prolific poster when there is potential while many others are only prolific when there isn't potential. Quite the dichotomy and it will never change.  

I'm going to disagree. Most just don't know how to do it as well as you.

[osfan24]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

March can be a great equalizer. March is probably the month with the greatest disparity between our two snowfall averages. A lot of ~6” DC area March snowfalls were 15”+ storms up here.  And a lot of sloppy insignificant DC ones were 6”+ up here. But while I don’t mind March saves like some on here that seem to be unrealistically picky about when and how it snows, that doesn’t mean I want to live dangerously like that every year. 

I don’t mind March snows but they certainly aren’t as enjoyable or long-lasting as snows earlier in the year when it’s colder and the sun angle isn’t so strong. Also, for those of us in the metro areas, we often don’t do nearly as well as your area in March as you pointed out. A March HECS would be fun since I’ve never seen one.

[CAPE]

41 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

I don’t mind March snows but they certainly aren’t as enjoyable or long-lasting as snows earlier in the year when it’s colder and the sun angle isn’t so strong. Also, for those of us in the metro areas, we often don’t do nearly as well as your area in March as you pointed out. A March HECS would be fun since I’ve never seen one.

We had this discussion in banter yesterday. Check it out!

[psuhoffman]

12z GEFS at the end is 48 hours from those great looking cfs looks. Loop the last 48 hours and the NAO block is forcing the tpv to elongate west to east and the war is about to get das boot. As soon as that happens the energy in the SW will cut across into an eastern trough. 

Yea I know it’s extrapolating a day 16 ensemble but it’s hope. 

[Maestrobjwa]

3 hours ago, SnowGoose69 said:

It’s not a big sample size but the tendency in El Niño winters where the SOI averages near zero is for March to be fairly lousy in regards to snow and cold.  As if we needed more bad news the ENSO models are becoming increasingly less loving of an El Niño in 19-20 recently too.  

Is that even reliable this far in advance? I hope that's not the case (or that perhaps it can at least be a neutral and not nina). We can't waste two winters of low solar and not cash in...Looking at our history, most of the time we did cash in (except maybe the 1979-80 season). All season I have had some reserve hope for 2019-20 winter in case this one would've gone terribly. But we shall see...

[psuhoffman]

56 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

I don’t mind March snows but they certainly aren’t as enjoyable or long-lasting as snows earlier in the year when it’s colder and the sun angle isn’t so strong. Also, for those of us in the metro areas, we often don’t do nearly as well as your area in March as you pointed out. A March HECS would be fun since I’ve never seen one.

I tend to think the long lasting snow thing is a myth. Snow rarely lasts long here in any month. Our climo is just too warm.  We were talking about this the otter day in banter. 

Ninjad by @C.A.P.E.

you getting better at this game 

[psuhoffman]

GEFS also has an oddly high number of snows in the 10-15 day period considering how bad the pattern looks. 

[Steve25]

I'm no expert, but it surely looks like all the models are in agreement that it'll be bitter cold Wednesday-Friday but things will warm up substantially over the weekend with our next significant rain threat early the next week. I know this is true for every system, but I think it would be very smart to enjoy WHATEVER were able to squeeze out on Tuesday. 

[CAPE]

29 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

GEFS also has an oddly high number of snows in the 10-15 day period considering how bad the pattern looks. 

Hopefully it isn't right, but the EPS sure wants to lock in a stable pattern with a mean W US trough/ E US ridge from day 8 onward. That would likely waste a big chunk of our prime snow climo, and we have already done enough of that.

eta- the advertised "-NAO " on the EPS is absolute weak sauce. Useless.

[frd]

 

I was not aware nationwide it is has been this warm. Sure the cold blast is arriving, but after that, well.  

First time in a long time at this point, ( yes, things can change still )  the computers/models and the humans are going down the tubes with signifant colder forecasts and above climo snowfall for wide areas in the East. 

Maybe a MECS happens in later Feb that helps those who went with well above normal snowfall,  otherwise I don't see how those who called for -2 to -4 below normal temps for Feb. will ever verify.  

It is not time to grade the winter yet, but when you look back there was a time when this winter seemed to want to be a better one due to colder weather setitng in, record North America snowfall, quick SAI, cold winning out in November, Canada very cold and very snowy. 

Whether it was the weakening of the El Nino, as Bob stated,possibly PDO issues, or the SSWE,  not sure. I leave that to the experts. 

I would tend to think the issue was Pacific Ocean and atmosphere related. Just a guess. 

There was universal agreement with the seasonal models, JAM, UkMet, Euro, etc. for colder weather and stormier as well. Also a -EPO and a -NAO singnal .      

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[poolz1]

I know most are probably done with SOI and MJO talk....usually when it is discussed it's due to a crap pattern in the LR.  Believe me, I want to strangle my laptop after every ens run in the past 24-36 hrs. 

I may be grasping here but I feel like the D12-16 on the ens will start to morph into a workable pattern.  We were at this same point last time the MJO was in this location.....Euro said the MJO would die and head into the center while the GEFS said we were looking at a historic phase 7 amp.  What happened was a compromise and a move into 8. It's almost a carbon copy right now in terms of the forecasted progression.  

Pressure panels are moving forward in time in regards to the SOI turning neg....and by neg I mean something more than a -3 or 4.  We need some -20s and -30s.  There are some big departures showing up on the GEFS starting just after D10. A big neg turn in the SOI combined with the models coming to their senses with the MJO and I think we will find that the trough west/ridge east will not be a stable pattern.

[CAPE]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

12z GEFS at the end is 48 hours from those great looking cfs looks. Loop the last 48 hours and the NAO block is forcing the tpv to elongate west to east and the war is about to get das boot. As soon as that happens the energy in the SW will cut across into an eastern trough. 

Yea I know it’s extrapolating a day 16 ensemble but it’s hope. 

This is what I have been watching with the GEFS depiction- the similarity to the  week 2 CFS, and how it  progresses  to week 3, which is the transition to the really good h5 look. Both have been  gung-ho with advertising a west based block. Need the EPS to start budging though.

Things looked pretty good on the EPS a few days ago when that piece of the PV retrograded to AK and then towards the Aleutians. Looked like a temporary reshuffle, but that mother just kept on going and looks like it wants to park in the Arctic. GEFS has it in the same general position, but manages a better AK ridge position/orientation, and of course the NA blocking is much stronger (on most runs) than the EPS. If you look at some of the previous GEFS runs that have weaker NA blocking though, the overall look leans more towards what the EPS is advertising. The EPS is consistently showing a weaker  -NAO, which is a big reason the general look is crappier, with more prominent ridging in the east.

[psuhoffman]

Lost in the near term focus on the Tuesday wave and possibly something later in the week is the fact we are getting a little NAO help right now. 

it’s not showing well numerically because the high heights near the Azores but that’s a real NAO ridge. It’s weak, and transient, and a bit north of ideal, but it forces the extension of the tpv going to our north today to cut through the war which helps temporarily shift the trough axis east enough to create the next 2 threats. 

I’m mentioning this to 1 point out why this week is different from the last 10 days of cutters and 2 to show something that could help us luck unto snow again later edge if epic hardcore NAO blocking never develops. Even a transient weaker block can help if it times up. The actual pattern is close enough that some Atlantic help gets it done. But it has to be a real NAO closer contour block (even transient) and not just the northern extension of a ridge that extends from the mid latitudes. That isn’t a real NAO block and won’t help at all. 

But these things can pop up quick and suddenly alter the pattern in our favor. 

[frd]

19 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

Pressure panels are moving forward in time in regards to the SOI turning neg....and by neg I mean something more than a -3 or 4.  We need some -20s and -30s.  There are some big departures showing up on the GEFS starting just after D10. A big neg turn in the SOI combined with the models coming to their senses with the MJO and I think we will find that the trough west/ridge east will not be a stable pattern.

That's a great point and why many who focus on the Pac extensively are looking for a 5 day warmer period, and then a transition to a better period.

More and more casual guideance and some analogs are looking good later in Feb and to start March. Worthwhile to keep invested and see what transpires.  We are due for a March MECS in these parts. But please, no Pamela Anderson this time !    

[psuhoffman]

20 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

This is what I have been watching with the GEFS depiction- the similarity to the  week 2 CFS, and how it  progresses  to week 3, which is the transition to the really good h5 look. Both have been  gung-ho with advertising a west based block. Need the EPS to start budging though.

Things looked pretty good on the EPS a few days ago when that piece of the PV retrograded to AK and then towards the Aleutians. Looked like a temporary reshuffle, but that mother just kept on going and looks like it wants to park in the Arctic. GEFS has it in the same general position, but manages a better AK ridge position/orientation, and of course the NA blocking is much stronger (on most runs) than the EPS. If you look at some of the previous GEFS runs that have weaker NA blocking though, the overall look leans more towards what the EPS is advertising. The EPS is consistently showing a weaker  -NAO, which is a big reason the general look is crappier, with more prominent ridging in the east.

That’s not just a GEFS EPS thing. Pretty much all winter any guidance that fails to initiate good NAO blocking looks like crap for us. We haven’t had more than a fluke run here or there that manages a good snow look absent an NAO block. That’s why i keep pounding that it’s “all about the NAO”.  Even now we finally got a weak but legit NAO ridge and not just an extension of the war and suddenly it might snow and 2 waves in a row get under us. That’s not a fluke imo. 

[joeride]

5 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

@showmethesnow@C.A.P.E. @Bob Chill

I’ll try to keep this as non deb as I can.   This could still flip. I’m not saying we’re done and winters over. But...when I saw the signs the NAO was unlikely to flip again...for the 3rd time, this progression was what I saw as inevitable.

So let me post some of the “epic” looks from the weeklies from several different runs. 

look at the ridge axis and pna out west on all those and the NAO.

First of all a full latitude ridge into the NAO domain isn’t a NAO block. It won’t have the impact we need on the longwave trough axis even if it shows up on a numerical chart as a -NAO.  The pacific has never been right, but I think what many missed was it was never actually supposed to get great. It was “ok” but the NAO was the driver.  Look at those panels. The epo/pna isn’t the driver in any of them. There were some off runs of a random week in all those weekly or cfs runs that had us excited with a pna ridge but 80% of the good look was NAO driven. The epo has always been centered too far west to be the primary driver of a snowy pattern here.

Our epo snow looks feature an epo ridge in western Canada not AK. And a pna has only been a sporadic thing that last a week it is on one run and gone the next. So the attempts to find a way to make this work without the NAO never interested me much. I don’t see a path there. The guidance hasn’t been wrong about that either. It’s been wrong about the NAO. So I don’t put much stock or hope into the “Maybe it’s wrong” theme. It hasn’t been wrong about the epo locations at all. And I’ll make an argument that if you adjust for the NAO error is he coming retrogression of the epo ridge is the direct consequence. 

If the NAO block fails as wavelengths shorten an epo becomes less helpful and correlates with cold and snow here less. And that’s even with an ideal epo axis. An epo off the west coast is useless for snow. The trough axis will naturally shift west the later we go and it was already too far west in January. 

So my gut “uh oh” was that I saw signs the NAO was failing again. And if it fails the epo will retrograde some and the trough will end up west of us. The epo ridge has been a stable feature except for the 2 week AK vortex period around the holidays. But it’s been consistently too far west to help. Even if it stayed centered around AK it would likely become even less helpful.  But now it looks to retrograde a little which would be really bad without any NAO help. 

If the NAO block develops that same look becomes workable. The pac jet undercuts the ridge. The energy is forced under the block which knocks down the WAR and then suddenly you have the look in those panels above. Remove the NAO block and you have a massive full latitude eastern NAM ridge. 

So im not saying we’re done. It’s still only January. Long range could flip. Maybe the euro is dumping too far west and GEFS isn’t as bad and if the NAO truly develops it would flip quick and Bob is right that often that happens fast without warning.  But what I was and am saying is the attempts to get it to snow a lot here without the NAO are unlikely to work this year imo. I guess if someone is in the camp that the NAO is hopeless then I am saying it’s over lol. But I’m not in that camp. I don’t know what the NAO will do. But unless the blocking look that was the driver in the “good pattern” we were expecting develops this is not likely to end well. 

Lastly...when I say won’t end well that is a matter of perspective. I’m not saying it won’t snow again even if the NAO fails. But I don’t expect any epic run of snow oh snow warning events or a mecs/hecs levek event.  But we can fluke our way to something in almost any pattern. A wave following a cutter could finally work. We got a 4-8” snow in feb 1997 during a flat out god awful H5 pattern because a system lucked under us. It happens.  

And keep in mind my mood can’t be separated from my results. For many in here if we get 2 more snows and about 10” total this was an ok winter. But I’m still 32” away from average and 11” from my least snow ever. For me that same result would make this the worst winter ever out of the 14 I’ve been up here.  So I might be more negative about a mediocre look than some will. For me I need epic just to save me from a total dumpster fire winter.  So I’m probably in a much more negative POV than the dc area and I’m sorry and I’ll try to keep that out of my analysis from now on. 

I enjoy your analysis. I live in Thurmont and have had basically no snow what so ever, approx. 12" which includes the Nov. snow of 8".  

[CAPE]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

That’s not just a GEFS EPS thing. Pretty much all winter any guidance that fails to initiate good NAO blocking looks like crap for us. We haven’t had more than a fluke run here or there that manages a good snow look absent an NAO block. That’s why i keep pounding that it’s “all about the NAO”.  Even now we finally got a weak but legit NAO ridge and not just an extension of the war and suddenly it might snow and 2 waves in a row get under us. That’s not a fluke imo. 

No argument on that here. I always want a -NAO, but when the pattern is flawed on the PAC side, it becomes vital. Problem is- it is often advertised and rarely materializes, outside of the bootleg/transient variety.

Thus far we have not seen the epic blocking looks on the EPS that we see on the GEFS. CFS, and even the EPS weeklies. My gut says the bad look that the EPS is currently advertising will be transient. I doubt the PAC is about to go completely to crap for the long term, but I sure would love to see a few runs where the EPS goes a little nuts with the -NAO like some other guidance.

[yoda]

Lol 18z GFS pushing 70 in parts of VA on Monday Feb 4th with mid 60s for most

[psuhoffman]

@C.A.P.E. I saw “some” positive in the eps today. The ridge getting cut down some to our north is a sign some members are trying to cut the jet under the block. The temps aren’t that warm and the mslp plots are good with low pressure to our south and high to the north.  The one feature that based on anomalies is likely dead locked in is the epo ridge and it’s not in a good spot absent NAO blocking.  So my guess is there is more divergence with runs that lack the adequate blocking torching the east and creating the mean ridge and runs with better blocking having more trough into the east. That would create that mean look. It wasn’t a good run but I thought a baby step from the complete dumpster fire of the last few eps runs. 

[Bob Chill]

34 minutes ago, yoda said:

Lol 18z GFS pushing 70 in parts of VA on Monday Feb 4th with mid 60s for most

Eps mean temps are mid-upper 50s. That's a really warm mean so I'm sure there's plenty of members in the 60s. If we're going to be warm I'm going to take full advantage of it. And yes, I will definitely enjoy it. 

[psuhoffman]

Just now, Bob Chill said:

Eps mean temps are mid-upper 50s. That's a really warm mean so I'm sure there's plenty of members in the 60s. If we're going to be warm I'm going to take full advantage of it. And yes, I will definitely enjoy it. 

I do enjoy warm weather and if it’s warm upper get out and make the best of it. But we have 8-9 months of the year that than are mostly warm. I never like warmth eating into our 3 months of cold enough to snow climo. 

 

[Bob Chill]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

@C.A.P.E. I saw “some” positive in the eps today. The ridge getting cut down some to our north is a sign some members are trying to cut the jet under the block. The temps aren’t that warm and the mslp plots are good with low pressure to our south and high to the north.  The one feature that based on anomalies is likely dead locked in is the epo ridge and it’s not in a good spot absent NAO blocking.  So my guess is there is more divergence with runs that lack the adequate blocking torching the east and creating the mean ridge and runs with better blocking having more trough into the east. That would create that mean look. It wasn’t a good run but I thought a baby step from the complete dumpster fire of the last few eps runs. 

I keep seeing a lot of west based  -nao looks on the gfs. 18z did it again. And Ralph... I'm posting this as an example and it builds well before this d10 panel. Looks good at d6-7.

I'm starting to lean towards being confident that the -nao is coming. Too many hints and leads are shortening daily.

The pna looks like it's going to offset but if the -nao stays and the pna flips then things could get good with plenty of time to spare. Not a damn thing I can do one way or the other. It would be epic irony if we get a money baffin block but the pna locks in negative and renders the block useless. 

[HighStakes]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I do enjoy warm weather and if it’s warm upper get out and make the best of it. But we have 8-9 months of the year that than are mostly warm. I never like warmth eating into our 3 months of cold enough to snow climo. 

 

Especially when it gets warm during most prime climo 10 day period we have.

[Bob Chill]

3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I do enjoy warm weather and if it’s warm upper get out and make the best of it. But we have 8-9 months of the year that than are mostly warm. I never like warmth eating into our 3 months of cold enough to snow climo. 

 

Oh don't get me wrong, it sucks because time is ticking. I'm not rooting for warm in any way. Can't control weather so if it comes I'll take full advantage of it. Lemomade and stuff. 

[wasnow215]

1 hour ago, yoda said:

Lol 18z GFS pushing 70 in parts of VA on Monday Feb 4th with mid 60s for most

Euro has it 2/5 Tue. So looks like gonna happen

[Maestrobjwa]

1 hour ago, Bob Chill said:

 The pna looks like it's going to offset but if the -nao stays and the pna flips then things could get good with plenty of time to spare.

So now the pna is trying to play bad guy, smh Always somethin'!

But long shutdowns precede snow...I'm tryin' to hang onto that...lol 

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, Bob Chill said:

I keep seeing a lot of west based  -nao looks on the gfs. 18z did it again. And Ralph... I'm posting this as an example and it builds well before this d10 panel. Looks good at d6-7.

I'm starting to lean towards being confident that the -nao is coming. Too many hints and leads are shortening daily.

The pna looks like it's going to offset but if the -nao stays and the pna flips then things could get good with plenty of time to spare. Not a damn thing I can do one way or the other. It would be epic irony if we get a money baffin block but the pna locks in negative and renders the block useless. 

If it’s a true closed block it can offset a -pna. The gfs for instance builds that block day 8-10 and it leads to a snow threat coming at us day 16. The block forces the wave around day 12 under it, still north of us but it knocks down the war and gets stuck as a monster 50/50 and sets up a threat even with the bad pac. That’s likely just how we’re gonna have to roll here. 

[Bob Chill]

22 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

If it’s a true closed block it can offset a -pna. The gfs for instance builds that block day 8-10 and it leads to a snow threat coming at us day 16. The block forces the wave around day 12 under it, still north of us but it knocks down the war and gets stuck as a monster 50/50 and sets up a threat even with the bad pac. That’s likely just how we’re gonna have to roll here. 

18z gefs actually looks pretty good at the end. Solid confluence/compressed flow with low heights near and east of 50/50. 

Getting close to the -pna being a lock. All global ens look similar with that. I'll have no problem dealing with a relax/-pna as long as I can see the end of it and it's not getting pushed out in time. 

I can extrapolate good things beyon this panel. I have 4 weeks of good climo to go at this point and you still have 6. Two 1' storms and a couple moderate ones and you knock dowm climo.