January/February Medium/Long Range Disco

[Ralph Wiggum]

7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Maybe it’s wrong. Hopefully. But the eps has locked into the idea of retrograding the epo ridge to an Aleutian ridge and parking it there. If that happens it’s shut out the lights time for a while. It’s been showing that for several runs and getting stronger. Hopefully the eps has an epic fail. 

Wait it’s the typical euro bias of holding energy back right....lol 

Can we maybe finally get an early sustained spring pattern this year? I actually miss it.

[Maestrobjwa]

9 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Maybe it’s wrong. Hopefully. But the eps has locked into the idea of retrograding the epo ridge to an Aleutian ridge and parking it there. If that happens it’s shut out the lights time for a while. It’s been showing that for several runs and getting stronger. Hopefully the eps has an epic fail. 

Wait it’s the typical euro bias of holding energy back right....lol 

Oof, that would hurt...but at least we wouldn't be suffering alone, lol So we'd be lookin' at what, 7-10 days of a torch if that were to verify?

[psuhoffman]

4 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Can we maybe finally get an early sustained spring pattern this year? I actually miss it.

No, you have 6 months to enjoy warm. 

[SnowGoose69]

26 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Maybe it’s wrong. Hopefully. But the eps has locked into the idea of retrograding the epo ridge to an Aleutian ridge and parking it there. If that happens it’s shut out the lights time for a while. It’s been showing that for several runs and getting stronger. Hopefully the eps has an epic fail. 

Wait it’s the typical euro bias of holding energy back right....lol  

It probably is because its at odds with its own weeklies.  The last time it did that about a month back it ended up being wrong

[osfan24]

5 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

It probably is because its at odds with its own weeklies.  The last time it did that about a month back it ended up being wrong

Have to hope so because that kind of development would put us into close to mid-February. It's getting late, early. I'll trust the people much smarter than me that this thing is still going to flip to a really good pattern soon, but unless it happens really soon, the potential window for a flip is relatively small to cash in.

[showmethesnow]

33 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Maybe it’s wrong. Hopefully. But the eps has locked into the idea of retrograding the epo ridge to an Aleutian ridge and parking it there. If that happens it’s shut out the lights time for a while. It’s been showing that for several runs and getting stronger. Hopefully the eps has an epic fail. 

Wait it’s the typical euro bias of holding energy back right....lol 

You have to laugh though. Isn't that a fairly stable -NAO just as the PAC goes to crap? Who said Mother Nature doesn't have a sense of humor. Think it is time we start sacrificial offerings to the Snow Gods. I am thinking maybe start with Ji? 

[frd]

13 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

It probably is because its at odds with its own weeklies.  The last time it did that about a month back it ended up being wrong

Hopefully that period is only 5 days, or so.  Seems the models are reacting to a mid latitude momentum loss. HM mentioned early this morning. 

 

 

[psuhoffman]

37 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

You have to laugh though. Isn't that a fairly stable -NAO just as the PAC goes to crap? Who said Mother Nature doesn't have a sense of humor. Think it is time we start sacrificial offerings to the Snow Gods. I am thinking maybe start with Ji? 

It’s more just a full latitude ridge. Yea it will show up as a negative NAO numerically but it won’t affect the pattern the way we need. 

I’ve always liked Ji. I kinda find his act funny. I know it annoys many. But if it will get me an inch more snow tie him up and throw more wood on the fire!!!

[psuhoffman]

50 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

It probably is because its at odds with its own weeklies.  The last time it did that about a month back it ended up being wrong

The weeklies haven’t been right all winter. 

[SnowGoose69]

8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The weeklies haven’t been right all winter. 

They seem to have verified fairly well to me.  They may have not hit the pattern dead on but they pretty much got the January flip 5-6 weeks out

[psuhoffman]

Just now, SnowGoose69 said:

They seem to have verified fairly well to me.  They may have not hit the pattern dead on but they pretty much got the January flip 5-6 weeks out

Wow you grade easy. They have been teasing an NAO block since December that hasn’t happened yet and they keep placing the epo ridge east of where it ends up. The result of those 2 errors is why you haven’t had much snow lately.  

[Maestrobjwa]

3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Wow you grade easy. They have been teasing an NAO block since December that hasn’t happened yet and they keep placing the epo ridge east of where it ends up. The result of those 2 errors is why you haven’t had much snow lately.  

I'm starting to not believe we can even have a neg-NAO anymore, smh What has it been now, 9 years???

[winterymix]

2 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

Maybe it’s wrong. Hopefully. But the eps has locked into the idea of retrograding the epo ridge to an Aleutian ridge and parking it there. If that happens it’s shut out the lights time for a while. It’s been showing that for several runs and getting stronger. Hopefully the eps has an epic fail. 

Wait it’s the typical euro bias of holding energy back right....lol 

I invite banter about the attached GEFS 500 vorticity yield. 

1.  split flow

2. drainage from Siberia

3.  (-)NAO

[Ji]

Please

[Bob Chill]

56 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

I'm starting to not believe we can even have a neg-NAO anymore, smh What has it been now, 9 years???

We've had a few nice ones in the last few years. March 18 and Jan 16 were real -nao's. March 13 as well. 2012 had one but the AK vortex relentlessly cooked north america. The last stable one during met winter was 2010-11. 

Keep in mind the majority of our snow events do not have a -nao. The -AO correlates with somewhere around 80% of snow events over 4". The -NAO correlates with our really big storms which happen infrequently. 

[cbmclean]

57 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

I'm starting to not believe we can even have a neg-NAO anymore, smh What has it been now, 9 years???

That's the funny thing.  We had a giant -NAO less then 10 months ago.  Brought some of you guys some significant March snow.  Even snowed a bit down in my neck of the woods which is impressive. Other early springs lately have had similar, though less extreme events.

But for some reason we can't seem to get it in Met winter.  Some have pondered whether AGW is the cause.  Maybe so.  But I do not understand what about AGW that would prevent -NAO in Dec - Feb, but not in March or April.

[cbmclean]

3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

We've had a few nice ones in the last few years. March 18 and Jan 16 were real -nao's. March 13 as well. 2012 had one but the AK vortex relentlessly cooked north america. The last stable one during met winter was 2010-11. 

Keep in mind the majority of our snow events do not have a -nao. The -AO correlates with somewhere around 80% of snow events over 4". The -NAO correlates with our really big storms which happen infrequently. 

Yes, I keep forgetting about Jan 16.  Didn't lead to anything significant down here, so it doesn't stick in my mind.  Also, I think I was still mentally stunned by the previous 80 F Christmas.

[cbmclean]

6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

2012 had one but the AK vortex relentlessly cooked north america.

Back during the pac puke, I mentioned 2012 in comparison to this year, but you said that the mechanisms were nothing at all alike.  Can you explain that?  I thought that in both cases a really strong Pacific jet flooded the conus with mild air.  Do you just mean that the cause of the strong pacific jet was different in the two years?

[Bob Chill]

2 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

That's the funny thing.  We had a giant -NAO less then 10 months ago.  Brought some of you guys some significant March snow.  Even snowed a bit down in my neck of the woods which is impressive. Other early springs lately have had similar, though less extreme events.

But for some reason we can't seem to get it in Met winter.  Some have pondered whether AGW is the cause.  Maybe so.  But I do not understand what about AGW that would prevent -NAO in Dec - Feb, but not in March or April.

There is some sort of decadal or long term cycle with the NAO. If you look back through monthy nao data in the winter it's streaky. Some periods are loaded with blocking and others not. Late 80s and early 90s had somewhere around a 6 year period of +nao winters. The recent drought isn't very unusual. For all we know we're just about to enter another another multi year period of -nao winters. 

[Bob Chill]

1 minute ago, cbmclean said:

Back during the pac puke, I mentioned 2012 in comparison to this year, but you said that the mechanisms were nothing at all alike.  Can you explain that?  I thought that in both cases a really strong Pacific jet flooded the conus with mild air.  Do you just mean that the cause of the strong pacific jet was different in the two years?

2011-12 has an extremely positive epo with a large (stable) vortex spinning around AK for pretty much the entire winter. It relentlessly pumped warm pac maritime air into Canada so our source region was cooked...literally. Very different than this year. This year has been more -pna driven versus epo. 

[cbmclean]

Just now, Bob Chill said:

2011-12 has an extremely positive epo with a large (stable) vortex spinning around AK for pretty much the entire winter. It relentlessly pumped warm pac maritime air into Canada so our source region was cooked...literally. Very different than this year. This year has been more -pna driven versus epo. 

But how is that different from a run-of-the-mill Pac puke?

[Bob Chill]

Just now, cbmclean said:

But how is that different from a run-of-the-mill Pac puke?

A big AK vortex is a stable feature than can literally cancel an entire winter in the conus coast to coast outside the mountains. Earlier this year was just part of an oscillation that can happen in any winter and is rarely a long duration event. Neither are good but the AK vortex is the worst thing you ever want to see in December. We had legit blocking in 2011-12 and all it did was displace already much above normal airmasses from Canada into the US. Epic disaster is a gross understatement for that type of regime.

[cbmclean]

33 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

A big AK vortex is a stable feature than can literally cancel an entire winter in the conus coast to coast outside the mountains. Earlier this year was just part of an oscillation that can happen in any winter and is rarely a long duration event. Neither are good but the AK vortex is the worst thing you ever want to see in December. We had legit blocking in 2011-12 and all it did was displace already much above normal airmasses from Canada into the US. Epic disaster is a gross understatement for that type of regime.

I am curious.  Is there mirror image regime which is as good as the AK vortex is bad?

[psuhoffman]

4 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

I am curious.  Is there mirror image regime which is as good as the AK vortex is bad?

The inverse of that is a epo ridge. That’s good. Unfortunately because of our climo we need more to go right to get snow than one thing. Snow around here is like a golf swing. It takes a multitude of things all working together in harmony to get a good hit but any one little thing can screw it all up. 

[SnowGoose69]

7 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

I am curious.  Is there mirror image regime which is as good as the AK vortex is bad?

2002-2003

[Ji]

no offense to anyone but the long range prognostication this year has been pretty awful. I dont think anyone has a clue of how we got here....and where we are going. I remember in early January---we looked at a pattern change for Jan 15.....and then we got what we thought might be the appetizer(jan 11-12)....as we grew closer---the models started throwing out 4,5,6 threats in a 384 run(remember those)....and then it all went away. And then there was eternal wait for the long awaited February and the EPS is throwing a blowtorch in our face. Even the superstars like Isotherm,Don Sutherland..JB have been way off even though they sound like things are on track. No matter what happens...this winter is a bust and anyone who tells you things are on track or this is how i thought things would go down is just lying. 

[Bob Chill]

1 hour ago, Ji said:

no offense to anyone but the long range prognostication this year has been pretty awful. I dont think anyone has a clue of how we got here....and where we are going. I remember in early January---we looked at a pattern change for Jan 15.....and then we got what we thought might be the appetizer(jan 11-12)....as we grew closer---the models started throwing out 4,5,6 threats in a 384 run(remember those)....and then it all went away. And then there was eternal wait for the long awaited February and the EPS is throwing a blowtorch in our face. Even the superstars like Isotherm,Don Sutherland..JB have been way off even though they sound like things are on track. No matter what happens...this winter is a bust and anyone who tells you things are on track or this is how i thought things would go down is just lying. 

It really all comes down to one thing that was pretty much universally wrong so far. Winter clearly hasn't behaved like a nino. If all I saw were the Dec & Jan h5 composites and nothing else I would not guess this was nino. Not even close. Temps and precip in early Dec was sorta like a Nino but ends there. 

 

[Maestrobjwa]

8 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

It really all comes down to one thing that was pretty much universally wrong so far. Winter clearly hasn't behaved like a nino. If all I saw were the Dec & Jan h5 composites and nothing else I would not guess this was nino. Not even close. Temps and precip in early Dec was sorta like a Nino but ends there. 

 

So what will we call this when all is set and done, then? Positive neutral? (And I hope next winter we get another shot at a legit weak-moderate Niño)

[Bob Chill]

1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said:

So what will we call this when all is set and done, then? Positive neutral? (And I hope next winter we get another shot at a legit weak-moderate Niño)

The classification doesn't really matter. Even if it is a defined technical weak nino the atmosphere didn't respond accordingly. Happens sometimes with both ninos and ninas. 

[Ji]

This has to be a record