January/February Medium/Long Range Disco

[frd]

15 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

This is what I was talking about in my post last night. That is a severely negative AO. And look at this NAO forecast. It doesnt make sense to me. I cant ever remember a time with a positive nao with the ao tanked like that?

Well statisically the great the -SD in the AO the more likely the NAO will go negative. 

If you play that stats game we really need a true drop in real time to -4  SD AO for a very good chance at the NAO going negative. 

I know what HM was talking about yesterday with NAO but maybe we indeed get the oppurtunity to change up its mostly neutral or positive phase in Feb. 

As Ventrice stated Feb is when the NAO would indeed tend to go negative.   

[frd]

 @poolz1 This is truly remarkable, moved up closer in time, then extended the time over many days. The NAO countermeasure we have to see, but from a AO point of view this is big news.

 

 

Also of interest despite the robust nature of this SSWE and spit , third longest behind 2009, 1987 I believe, for wind reversal is the delayed response to a downwelling to occur.But now it is at the door step . 

This is happening as the GWO and AAM improves,  as well as a downward trend in the SOI and a move of the MJO to 7 and maybe 8 longer-term. Also, even tohugh there is   

 

 

[LP08]

Isn’t the worst look.  Would probably need the lower heights further south in Canada but I like the higher heights up top.

[Bob Chill]

10 minutes ago, LP08 said:

Isn’t the worst look.  Would probably need the lower heights further south in Canada but I like the higher heights up top.

If the pac ridge axis really is going to develop as shown on the gefs/eps it will take a lot of atlantic help to avoid an ugly period. Just mho but I think it's way to early to spike disaster pattern footballs. We'll see how things look midweek next week. I remain skeptical of a drawn out eastern ridge/western trough. Enough interesting stuff to watch before having to worry about the long range. Just me though. I expect a barrage of sky is falling posts all weekend and beyond. 

[LP08]

1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

If the pac ridge axis really is going to develop as shown on the gefs/eps it will take a lot of atlantic help to avoid an ugly period. Just mho but I think it's way to early to spike disaster pattern footballs. We'll see how things look midweek next week. I remain skeptical of a drawn out eastern ridge/western trough. Enough interesting stuff to watch before having to worry about the long range. Just me though. I expect a barrage of sky is falling posts all weekend and beyond. 

Agreed.  I’m naturally an optimist and enjoy learning here so I’m not going to deb everything when it looks unfavorable.  We get four months of tracking a year so I will keep watching a posting, lol.  I guess I should have clarified more that it’s close but better than some of the previous runs.

[poolz1]

LR is so jumpy right now...but, 12z gefs is at least jumping in the right direction this run.  

[frd]

4 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

LR is so jumpy right now...but, 12z gefs is at least jumping in the right direction this run.  

Yeah, I think any bad window is very short. Maybe never gets " bad " . HM feels the over overnight models went Nina like but there are reasons for this and he expects things to realign and look better as a whole.  I think it is best to visit his thread.    

[frd]

Good news 

 

 

[Bob Chill]

6 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

LR is so jumpy right now...but, 12z gefs is at least jumping in the right direction this run.  

Not bad d8-11 with the -nao compressing flow in the east. Not enough help because the pna goes the wrong way beyond that period. If (size 40pt font IF) models are underdoing the -nao then things will end up being far less dire than what is being advertised right now.

This is one of the better -pna looks I've seen in many years...

[poolz1]

Just now, Bob Chill said:

Not bad d8-11 with the -nao compressing flow in the east. Not enough help because the pna goes the wrong way beyond that period. If (size 40pt font IF) models are underdoing the -nao then things will end up being far less dire than what is being advertised right now.

This is one of the better -pna looks I've seen in many years...

 

Yea, the west based block really goes nuts from that panel on out....Def areas that need some fixing for a great pattern but the changes were noticeable pretty early on.  An indication that we are still adjusting even in the med range.  

[Bob Chill]

Just now, poolz1 said:

Yea, the west based block really goes nuts from that panel on out....Def areas that need some fixing for a great pattern but the changes were noticeable pretty early on.  An indication that we are still adjusting even in the med range.  

Just posting this as an example and absolutely not implying this is a specific threat... lol. The Fv3 builds a nice west based block and it forces a storm under us with a -pna. 

 

[CAPE]

Just now, poolz1 said:

Yea, the west based block really goes nuts from that panel on out....Def areas that need some fixing for a great pattern but the changes were noticeable pretty early on.  An indication that we are still adjusting even in the med range.  

GEFS really likes a Baffin block. Very impressive this run. If the EPAC is gonna be a bit unfavorable for a time, it would be very helpful if that NA look becomes reality.

[CAPE]

Monster block is getting it done this run.

[frd]

13 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

Yea, the west based block really goes nuts from that panel on out....Def areas that need some fixing for a great pattern but the changes were noticeable pretty early on.  An indication that we are still adjusting even in the med range.  

@poolz1  @psuhoffman I believe a few days ago we talked about the CFS and how well it does with blocking forecasts. 

But after asking Isotherm, it really seems to excell, if that is a good word, when it comes to the MJO. I would speculate if it does so correctly it will do better with blocking as well. So another step ahead speculating that if that is all true then maybe the CFS forecast of Geenland blocking and the focus on Davis Straights is the real deal. 

It very much possible we here in the Northern Mid Atlantic get a good storm threat from the Baffin block while we get the improvement out West. Then we progress into a period more Nino like with a -NAO continuing and a +PNA with undercutting storm threats. So everything comes together if you will . 

This might present one way of having a long duration storm threat window which could last over 4 weeks.  

Form Isotherm courtesy 33andrain 

<<

    I'm not sure of the exact statistics, but the CFS has performed the best with respect to the accurate MJO propagation - i.e., not prematurely dissolving the wave -- which certainly has high latitude ramifications as well. The latest GEFS shift toward more conducive PNA is a function of these MJO resolution alterations, which some of us have been underscoring re: the erroneous depictions beyond D6.

 

>>

 

[Bob Chill]

4 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

GEFS really likes a Baffin block. Very impressive this run. If the EPAC is gonna be a bit unfavorable for a time, it would be very helpful if that NA look becomes reality.

Man, you aren't kidding. It starts building way before this panel but at least the gefs (this run) tosses us a bone that the "bad period" could potentially be really short. This panel is pretty close to very good...

[CAPE]

Just now, Bob Chill said:

Man, you aren't kidding. It starts building way before this panel but at least the gefs (this run) tosses us a bone that the "bad period" could potentially be really short. This panel is pretty close to very good...

 

Ha I just posted that one too. Compare it to 6z- huge difference in the height fields over the eastern US. If there is to be a so-called bad period, this would mitigate it.

[psuhoffman]

16 minutes ago, frd said:

Good news 

 

 

To be clear I’ve always agreed with this. I’ve never cancelled winter. But I have lamented losing about a 7-10 day period during prime climo AFTER I already kicked the first half (plus keep in mind I didn’t get the storm 2 weeks ago so I’m still waiting for winter to start where others here see this as a break).  There is a huge different imo between things getting good around Jan 25-feb 1 and getting good around Feb 10-15. I wasn’t expecting the additional delay and didn’t like it. But I have not cancelled anything or said it won’t snow again (hell its likely to snow we least some this week).  

[poolz1]

2 minutes ago, frd said:

@poolz1 I believe a few days ago we talked about the CFS and how well it does with blocking forecasts. 

But after asking Isotherm, it really seems to excell, if that is a good word, when it comes to the MJO. I would speculate if it does so correctly it will do better with blocking as well. So another step ahead speculating that if that is all true then maybe the CFS forecast of Geenland blocking and the focus on Davis Straights is the real deal. 

It very much possible we here in the Northern Mid Atlantic get a good storm threat from the Baffin block while we get the improvement out West. Then we progress into a period more Nino like with a -NAO continuing and a +PNA with undercutting storm threats. So everything comes together if you will . 

This might present one way of having a long duration storm threat window which could last over 4 weeks.  

Form Isotherm courtesy 33andrain 

    I'm not sure of the exact statistics, but the CFS has performed the best with respect to the accurate MJO propagation - i.e., not prematurely dissolving the wave -- which certainly has high latitude ramifications as well. The latest GEFS shift toward more conducive PNA is a function of these MJO resolution alterations, which some of us have been underscoring re: the erroneous depictions beyond D6.

 

I dont really follow the CFS besides it's MJO forecast.  Seeing some of the CFS forecasts posted here, the latest GEFS look pretty similar.  Hoping we start to see the block trend stronger in the med range....with some of the systems set to cross the CONUS a stronger block could start to change the mood a bit.

[Bob Chill]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

To be clear I’ve always agreed with this. I’ve never cancelled winter. But I have lamented losing about a 7-10 day period during prime climo AFTER I already kicked the first half (plus keep in mind I didn’t get the storm 2 weeks ago so I’m still waiting for winter to start where others here see this as a break).  There is a huge different imo between things getting good around Jan 25-feb 1 and getting good around Feb 10-15. I wasn’t expecting the additional delay and didn’t like it. But I have not cancelled anything or said it won’t snow again (hell its likely to snow we least some this week).  

What if we only lose three days...

[osfan24]

Maybe this is the year we get a March HECS.

[WxUSAF]

Courtesy of @mitchnick.  Ukie looks VERY good for next weekend's setup:

TPV rotates to the 50/50 spot, good PNA ridge axis, nice shortwave over the Rockies and precip streaming up from the Gulf.  

[CAPE]

CFS for week 2 looks very similar to the 12z GEFS panel(s) posted above for the same period.

Week 3 looks like this, and week 4 might be even better. That general look sticks through week 6, the end of the run. CFS has been very consistent lately with its h5 depiction.

 

 

[psuhoffman]

32 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

What if we only lose three days...

Let me be really careful by saying this is only about what has been happening, NOT about our prospects the whole rest of the winter... since there seems to be some who think I am cancelling winter.  But imo we have already lost 7-10 days.  The failure of the NAO to develop adequately is why we have just had 2 cutters during the middle of what was supposed to be our "epic" pattern.  And this week is also being somewhat muted in potential, the initial wave along the arctic front cuts way west of us which causes the need for the weird miller b secondary wave to develop which is limiting the potential of a bigger event in our area.  I am not complaining or saying I won't take a 2-3" arctic wave...I would gladly, but it could have had more potential.  So I am not just saying we waste time going forward...we might we might now, the LR is really jumpy right now, BUT we already have lost some prime time regardless.

This is why I was so focused on the NAO...  I have a feeling the issues regarding the misplaced EPO ridge are not going to just go away.  Its obviously the base state imo.  Even the majority of guidance that shows a good look doesn't have a great PNA ridge, its mostly done though split flow and -NAO.  The guidance that does have a pna ridge also has a -nao and isotherm pointed out the causality link there.  ANy runs that fail to have a -nao also fail to have any pna ridge.  I just think we are unlikely to get a long term favorable pna ridge all by itself to save us.  So I was focused on the failure of the blocking to initiate when expected mid-late January as the main cause of our woes.

Going forward I still think the NAO will help at some point.  My confidence is lower than it was...but i still think it will get right at some point and we will get at least one more good snowstorm.  But depending how long it takes a good winter as a while might be off the table for MY area...DC still has a good chance.  It looks like the soi and mjo are heading the right way.  And as wavelengths shorten it should help mitigate the pacific wave train from running interference with the blocking.  Of course...if we dont get blocking it also would make the inadequate EPO problems even worse by pulling the trough west even more.  We have kind of seen that in the runs of guidance that lack the blocking to offset. 

So I dont think its a permanent problem.  I am not sure how much more time it kills but it has already killed off 7-10 days of what I thought would be a good pattern.  Hopefully it gets right soon and we score some hits. 

[cbmclean]

I will be rooting for you guys.  I am waving the flag for me personally.  By that I mean that think that the goose is cooked for the SE for the rest of Met winter.  This is not just blind Debbism.  I am basing this off of the sum of you guys' discussions of the LR ensembles, the stubborn MJO, and also general interdecadal trends.

Things are obviously not quite as dire for your guys.  Wouldn't be surprised at all to see the epic -NAO finally blossom in March when you guys can still benefit (well those of you who don't hate March snow).

I have to admit to pretty severe disappointment.  It might not be technically correct to say that this winter had promise, since we are now seeing warning signs that have become apparent in retrospect, but it had "promise of promise" if you know what I mean.  My hopes were up anyway.  And around 1/9-10 when the pac puke unexpectedly relaxed and everything looked so darn good in the long range, I really got reeled in.

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, cbmclean said:

I will be rooting for you guys.  I am waving the flag for me personally.  By that I mean that think that the goose is cooked for the SE for the rest of Met winter.  This is not just blind Debbism.  I am basing this off of the sum of you guys' discussions of the LR ensembles, the stubborn MJO, and also general interdecadal trends.

Things are obviously not quite as dire for your guys.  Wouldn't be surprised at all to see the epic -NAO finally blossom in March when you guys can still benefit (well those of you who don't hate March snow).

I have to admit to pretty severe disappointment.  It might not be technically correct to say that this winter had promise, since we are now seeing warning signs that have become apparent in retrospect, but it had "promise of promise" if you know what I mean.  My hopes were up anyway.  And around 1/9-10 when the pac puke unexpectedly relaxed and everything looked so darn good in the long range, I really got reeled in.

if the nao goes negative you have just as much chance at one fluke storm as anywhere else. 

[cbmclean]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

if the nao goes negative you have just as much chance at one fluke storm as anywhere else. 

Perhaps, but I honestly believe that it is unlikely to happen, at least in time for my forum.  I am not trying to convince anyone or to turn into the southern version of you know who.  And I would love to be proven completely and utterly wrong.

In the meantime, I will continue to read and learn.

[psuhoffman]

NC has had snowstorms in March.  And you are right its unlikely but a snowstorm in NC is highly unlikely at any given point, just saying its not MORE highly unlikely now IMO

[CAPE]

If the EPS is to be believed D9-15 would be pretty mild for the eastern half of the country. Looks like it would continue beyond that for a time. We shall see. Hopefully its just more MJO messing up  the model mojo.

[Maestrobjwa]

1 minute ago, C.A.P.E. said:

If the EPS is to be believed D9-15 would be pretty mild for the eastern half of the country. Looks like it would continue beyond that for a time. We shall see. Hopefully its just more MJO messing up  the model mojo.

I hope so too...because once ya start saying "pattern relax" in February...time starts gettin' a bit short!!

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, C.A.P.E. said:

If the EPS is to be believed D9-15 would be pretty mild for the eastern half of the country. Looks like it would continue beyond that for a time. We shall see. Hopefully its just more MJO messing up  the model mojo.

Maybe it’s wrong. Hopefully. But the eps has locked into the idea of retrograding the epo ridge to an Aleutian ridge and parking it there. If that happens it’s shut out the lights time for a while. It’s been showing that for several runs and getting stronger. Hopefully the eps has an epic fail. 

Wait it’s the typical euro bias of holding energy back right....lol