January/February Medium/Long Range Disco

[Ji]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

We’re gonna slight delay ourselves right into spring at this rate. 

Fwiw I was in a twitter thread with Ian and HM and asked what his gut was and he said that we would “get right” at some point. But I’m not sure if he just meant for one snowstorm or a more significant run. Keep in mind his area is having an atrocious year so far, even worse than mine. 

ETA ninjad 

ive been saying the delays of this winter remind me of 01-02.....and pattern finally did change...in Dec 2002!

[CAPE]

1 hour ago, Bob Chill said:

I agree about things improving faster than people currently think. If we do get a big dig in the west I'm almost positive it won't last long (if it happens at all). A lot of high pressure showing on the ens means around the pole and greenland. That counts for something. I'd be surprised if the long range blocking we've seen over and over never happens at all. 

I'm not going to post much about it though. The fun of discussing this stuff is at an all time low. 

GFS/GEFS sure have been bullish on stout Baffin/ Davis Strait Blocking. CFS has been too. EPS is a bit more luke warm on the idea, but still persistently showing higher h5 heights in the NAO domain. The GEPS...eh, who cares.

If legit blocking verifies, there will be lower heights in the east than most models are currently depicting.

 

eta- 18z GEFS seems to be showing some 'response' to the blocking. Quite a bit colder look on the east coast towards D15.

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

19 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

2) ?

We should create an index for 500mb ridge over the Mid-Atlantic that doesn't fit the rest of the global pattern. 

[psuhoffman]

21 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

2) ?

Now you’ve done it 

[psuhoffman]

22 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

I agree he has been uncanny over the years he's obviously ahead of most. I could feel him getting a tad annoyed as some of the questions tried to put words in his mouth. I think with your question he felt like Virginia has had an ok winter...certainly your area is far behind 

They thought he was making a prediction when he was more so doing an analysis of what has been disrupting the NAO so far. 

[psuhoffman]

5 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said:

We should create an index for 500mb ridge over the Mid-Atlantic that doesn't fit the rest of the global pattern. 

But what about the patterns in between the pattern?

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

But what about the patterns in between the pattern?

All I know is that it doesn't snow. 

[psuhoffman]

16 minutes ago, Ji said:

ive been saying the delays of this winter remind me of 01-02.....and pattern finally did change...in Dec 2002!

Yea... I was in the snowy camp so I’m by no means trolling or rooting for a fail and I’m not giving up yet either. We saw the pattern flip on a dime in 2015 and last March. But at some point I have to admit there is a chance it’s just not right this year. The pac forcing has been all wrong all winter. 

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said:

All I know is that it doesn't snow. 

It never snows except when it does 

[CAPE]

Just now, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said:

All I know is that it doesn't snow. 

Except it did 2 weeks ago. It must be La Nina!

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

Just now, C.A.P.E. said:

Except it did 2 weeks ago. It must be La Nina!

It's a pretty major shift. 

[CAPE]

Epic west-based blocking on the 12z CFS run for the next 6 weeks. Full-on weenie. Not unexpectedly, the 2M temp anomalies over the east are below normal for the next 6 weeks.

 

eta- kinda looks cold and dry though

[frd]

1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Epic west-based blocking on the 12z CFS run for the next 6 weeks. Full-on weenie. Not unexpectedly, the 2M temp anomalies over the east are below normal for the next 6 weeks.

 

eta- kinda looks cold and dry though

I really think Isotherm stated the CFS verifies blocking better , and I am not drunk. 

[Maestrobjwa]

1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Epic west-based blocking on the 12z CFS run for the next 6 weeks. Full-on weenie. Not unexpectedly, the 2M temp anomalies over the east are below normal for the next 6 weeks.

 

eta- kinda looks cold and dry though

Man I can't stand that emoji, lol

[frd]

I like where we could be headed. Good stats about the AO

From Don S over at 33andrain :

With the MJO's likely pushing toward or reaching Phase 7 toward the start of February, the AO will very likely see predominantly negative values for a sustained period of time. Strong to perhaps severe blocking could develop in the closing days of January.

　

The latest GEFS is forecasting a situation where the AO is at or below -3.000 during the opening of February in combination with a positive NAO and positive PNA.

　

A positive NAO in combination with a severely negative AO during the February 1-15, 1950-2018 period has been uncommon. In cases where the AO was -3.000 or below, just 17% of days had a positive NAO. In cases where the AO was -4.000 or below, just 14% of cases saw a positive NAO. Such combinations have featured a much above climatological frequency of measurable snow events.

　

The February 1-5, 1978 period featured a similar teleconnections setup. In addition, that period saw the MJO move from Phase 6 into Phase 7. By February 5, a major blizzard was developing along the Middle Atlantic coast. Afterward, the NAO went negative. February 1978 featured much above normal snowfall in much of the Northeast.

　

In sum, February will very likely open on a cold note. The potential for a snowy to possibly very snowy month remains on the table.

[frd]

I like this to.

Some of these changes point to a good period coming up.

 

 

 

[psuhoffman]

4 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

Imho- the reason behind all wx models not doing well beyond just 10 days let alone 6 weeks is that we're a helluva long way away from that type of reliable skill modeling global weather patterns. As advanced as NWP has become it's still far away from good skill in the long range.

In our area, if you guess above normal temps and below normal snow you'll be right 70% of the time. It's that easy here. Lol. From the way it looks now it appears that every long ranger who went active and snowy in the east is in trouble. Still time for a 4th quarter comeback but the ticking clock is getting louder and louder. 

I do appreciate long rangers and i read their stuff like everyone else. I'm not knocking them at all because the good ones have exceptional knowledge about the various drivers of the global atmosphere. It's a very humbling hobby fraught with curve balls and surprises.

If I had followed my own rules in November I could have nailed this winter based on the PDO alone. When the pdo is negative going into winter we struggle here. I'll go back and double check through the years however i already know there aren't many exceptions. 2013-15 was a long duration +pdo and there's no doubt in my mind a good portion of our success those winters had to do with that. 

Ninos generally have a defined +pdo by December. This year did not. It had the opposite. It has improved quite a bit since Dec but still not a solid +pdo. We can do a post mortem in 6 weeks or so and see what happened with the very accurate 20/20 hindsight model. 

I’ve read some Mets saying the amplified pac this year is causing guidance to struggle. On top of that I’ve noticed that some years the guidance seems to simply struggle to correctly account for a major pattern driver.  I’ve seen it in the past where the guidance will repeatedly want to adjust the pattern to what it would look like without that factor it’s missing. I’ve seen it work in our favor. In 2014 guidance continually looked like crap at range as it tried to revert to a pattern more typical of the enso and global factors but it seemed to be missing the effect of that N Pac warm pool. It did that all winter.  There was another year when it kept teasing blocking that never came. I remember reading that guidance was over estimating a favorable Atlantic sst for an NAO ridge but underestimating the interference from an enhanced pac jet. That’s why in a Nina we typically don’t get much blocking until March when shorter wavelengths mute the destructive interference of the pac jet. But either way when this happens it seems to keep happening all season. This year my guess is it’s happening with the mjo. The guidance has been late to see the impacts of every major phase change in the tropical forcing all year. 

Long range is really hard because you have to make predictions based on predictions or assumptions. What will the tropical forcing be. Qbo. Pdo. Enso. Get some wrong and it all goes to crap. Or sometimes subtle things combine to throw it off anyways. Like you say weather just weathers. 

Regarding your excellent point on the pdo...I think in addition to mistaking the enso for a legit nino when in fact it’s behaving like a neutral or even a Nina at times...my biggest other error was weighting the pdo. I noticed the pdo in the fall. But several of the best analogs at that time like 1978, 1969, 1966, 1964, and 1958 all started with a -pdo in fall through December. 78 flipped in January. The others stayed negative. And they all turned out cold and snow. (69 was only average but it was kind of a bad fluke imo). So I sort of tossed it as a negative factor. But looking back now that was a big mistake. The pdo seems to be a much better predictor of snowfall now than it was in the past. Notice all those years are pre 1980. There were other -pdo  non nino years that were snowy also like 1979. It was common back then. But not anymore. The last several decades a good snow year with a -pdo is just extinct. I’ve read some arguments that using analogs from before ~1980 is a bad idea as they just aren’t very valid anymore. I don’t want to start a climate debate so I’ll just leave that there. 

It could be the NAO. Blocking was more common back then and so overcoming a hostile pdo was more likely. With the predominance of a +NAO lately winning without pdo help is more challenging. It also seems lately that when we do get mid winter blocking it goes with a pos pdo. Either way I think I messed up that factor when weighting things this year. 

[Maestrobjwa]

1 minute ago, frd said:

I like where we could be headed. Good stats about the AO

From Don S over at 33andrain :

With the MJO's likely pushing toward or reaching Phase 7 toward the start of February, the AO will very likely see predominantly negative values for a sustained period of time. Strong to perhaps severe blocking could develop in the closing days of January.

　

The latest GEFS is forecasting a situation where the AO is at or below -3.000 during the opening of February in combination with a positive NAO and positive PNA.

　

A positive NAO in combination with a severely negative AO during the February 1-15, 1950-2018 period has been uncommon. In cases where the AO was -3.000 or below, just 17% of days had a positive NAO. In cases where the AO was -4.000 or below, just 14% of cases saw a positive NAO. Such combinations have featured a much above climatological frequency of measurable snow events.

　

The February 1-5, 1978 period featured a similar teleconnections setup. In addition, that period saw the MJO move from Phase 6 into Phase 7. By February 5, a major blizzard was developing along the Middle Atlantic coast. Afterward, the NAO went negative. February 1978 featured much above normal snowfall in much of the Northeast.

　

In sum, February will very likely open on a cold note. The potential for a snowy to possibly very snowy month remains on the table.

Ya don't say...well that certainly heightens the interest!

[psuhoffman]

42 minutes ago, frd said:

I really think Isotherm stated the CFS verifies blocking better , and I am not drunk. 

Figures the one year we are talking about the cfs so much and Mitch goes away. 

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Epic west-based blocking on the 12z CFS run for the next 6 weeks. Full-on weenie. Not unexpectedly, the 2M temp anomalies over the east are below normal for the next 6 weeks.

 

eta- kinda looks cold and dry though

If after all this rain we finally get epic blocking and then no precip for 5 weeks...well every puppy and bunny and cute furry creature better hide. Just sayin. 

[psuhoffman]

18z GEFS was actually a legit good look at the end. 

split flow. Ridge in western Canada. -NAO. The war is about to get booted is my guess when the system in the lakes slides east under the blocking. 

[Maestrobjwa]

25 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

18z GEFS was actually a legit good look at the end. 

split flow. Ridge in western Canada. -NAO. The war is about to get booted is my guess when the system in the lakes slides east under the blocking. 

And yet another hour 384 panel crying neg nao...after it continuously disappearing, it is hard to believe anything anymore, lol

[Maestrobjwa]

28 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

18z GEFS was actually a legit good look at the end. 

split flow. Ridge in western Canada. -NAO. The war is about to get booted is my guess when the system in the lakes slides east under the blocking. 

And yet another hour 384 panel crying neg nao...after it continuously disappearing, seems almost meaningless to look at. But, this is long range...I guess we just gotta look for baby steps...

[cbmclean]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

I’ve read some Mets saying the amplified pac this year is causing guidance to struggle. On top of that I’ve noticed that some years the guidance seems to simply struggle to correctly account for a major pattern driver.  I’ve seen it in the past where the guidance will repeatedly want to adjust the pattern to what it would look like without that factor it’s missing. I’ve seen it work in our favor. In 2014 guidance continually looked like crap at range as it tried to revert to a pattern more typical of the enso and global factors but it seemed to be missing the effect of that N Pac warm pool. It did that all winter.  There was another year when it kept teasing blocking that never came. I remember reading that guidance was over estimating a favorable Atlantic sst for an NAO ridge but underestimating the interference from an enhanced pac jet. That’s why in a Nina we typically don’t get much blocking until March when shorter wavelengths mute the destructive interference of the pac jet. But either way when this happens it seems to keep happening all season. This year my guess is it’s happening with the mjo. The guidance has been late to see the impacts of every major phase change in the tropical forcing all year. 

Long range is really hard because you have to make predictions based on predictions or assumptions. What will the tropical forcing be. Qbo. Pdo. Enso. Get some wrong and it all goes to crap. Or sometimes subtle things combine to throw it off anyways. Like you say weather just weathers. 

Regarding your excellent point on the pdo...I think in addition to mistaking the enso for a legit nino when in fact it’s behaving like a neutral or even a Nina at times...my biggest other error was weighting the pdo. I noticed the pdo in the fall. But several of the best analogs at that time like 1978, 1969, 1966, 1964, and 1958 all started with a -pdo in fall through December. 78 flipped in January. The others stayed negative. And they all turned out cold and snow. (69 was only average but it was kind of a bad fluke imo). So I sort of tossed it as a negative factor. But looking back now that was a big mistake. The pdo seems to be a much better predictor of snowfall now than it was in the past. Notice all those years are pre 1980. There were other -pdo  non nino years that were snowy also like 1979. It was common back then. But not anymore. The last several decades a good snow year with a -pdo is just extinct. I’ve read some arguments that using analogs from before ~1980 is a bad idea as they just aren’t very valid anymore. I don’t want to start a climate debate so I’ll just leave that there. 

It could be the NAO. Blocking was more common back then and so overcoming a hostile pdo was more likely. With the predominance of a +NAO lately winning without pdo help is more challenging. It also seems lately that when we do get mid winter blocking it goes with a pos pdo. Either way I think I messed up that factor when weighting things this year. 

I have asked myself a question, have not yet come up with a good answer, I will ask you guys:

Assume, just for the sake of a thought experiment, that NWP was able to tell you exactly what kind of winter you will get, down to the number and general intensity of every storm, rain or snow.  If on Dec 1 you were able to see with 100% confidence that your winter was going to be a fail, would it make you sad because you knew what was coming, or would it be a relief since you didn't have the anxiety of not knowing?   

[Maestrobjwa]

1 minute ago, cbmclean said:

I have asked myself a question, have not yet come up with a good answer, I will ask you guys:

Assume, just for the sake of a thought experiment, that NWP was able to tell you exactly what kind of winter you will get, down to the number and general intensity of every storm, rain or snow.  If on Dec 1 you were able to see with 100% confidence that your winter was going to be a fail, would it make you sad because you knew what was coming, or would it be a relief since you didn't have the anxiety of not knowing?   

Probably more of a relief, I suppose...but probably kinda sad too (but at least you would have time to mentally prepare, lol)

[clskinsfan]

2 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

I have asked myself a question, have not yet come up with a good answer, I will ask you guys:

Assume, just for the sake of a thought experiment, that NWP was able to tell you exactly what kind of winter you will get, down to the number and general intensity of every storm, rain or snow.  If on Dec 1 you were able to see with 100% confidence that your winter was going to be a fail, would it make you sad because you knew what was coming, or would it be a relief since you didn't have the anxiety of not knowing?   

It would crush me. The chase is the most fun for me. 

As far as the -NAO not verifying. The forecast is odd to me. The AO is forecast to go severely negative. Yet the NAO is forecast to be neutral to slightly positive. Now I realize that the forecast comes from the GFS and its ensembles. So it is skewed by one model.  But can anyone think of a time where the AO was so strongly negative and not have the NAO respond? I would think if the AO continues to tank the NAO will follow suit?

[Bob Chill]

29 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

And yet another hour 384 panel crying neg nao...after it continuously disappearing, it is hard to believe anything anymore, lol

He's talking about the pacific getting right. The -nao builds way before the end of the run. Look at the panels yourself on TT.  It's becoming likely that the -nao forms but the pac is still out of sync at first. 

[Bob Chill]

30 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

I have asked myself a question, have not yet come up with a good answer, I will ask you guys:

That would be terrible and ruin this hobby. It would literally be as fun as fishing in a hottub full of bass or hunting deer in a cage. 

[Bob Chill]

@psuhoffman

I'll go down with the ship saying this but I still believe the pac and western trough are overdone to the bad side or maybe even wrong alltogether. I expect things to look much better by the time the arctic front comes through. It feels more like we hit a speed bump in early feb at the worst. Not saying snow will come easy. I just don't think we'll need to use the word disaster in real time anytime soon.

[cbmclean]

1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

@psuhoffman

I'll go down with the ship saying this but I still believe the pac and western trough are overdone to the bad side or maybe even wrong alltogether. I expect things to look much better by the time the arctic front comes through. It feels more like we hit a speed bump in early feb at the worst. Not saying snow will come easy. I just don't think we'll need to use the word disaster in real time anytime soon.

What is it that makes you feel this way?