January/February Medium/Long Range Disco

[Ralph Wiggum]

2 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Uh-oh. More can kicking? Let the panic ensue!

Love this look tbh. Overrunning swfe are big snow producers in these parts. Pineapple connection ftw

[CAPE]

7 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Love this look tbh. Overrunning swfe are big snow producers in these parts. Pineapple connection ftw

You live in NH?

[Ralph Wiggum]

2 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

You live in NH?

Northern Hemisphere, yes

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

33 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Uh-oh. More can kicking? Let the panic ensue!

 

Yeah, that's pretty insane for El Nino. Developing La Nina, although maybe Neutral. 

This wave got stopped. 

[JakkelWx]

Just now, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said:

Yeah, that's pretty insane for El Nino. Developing La Nina, although maybe Neutral. 

Chuck up shut.

[psuhoffman]

21 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Uh-oh. More can kicking? Let the panic ensue!

Whatever. I’ve made my point. I actually am bothered by the fact that for the last month everytime the good pattern is supposed to come into range it degrades into a muted NAO ridge with a epo that’s too west and a war.  But “maybe it’s wrong” is the new long range analysts MO I guess so whatever. 

[psuhoffman]

43 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Uh-oh. More can kicking? Let the panic ensue!

Only good thing there is that should roll over into a good look a few days later. Trough east of Hawaii argues that trough in the west should cut under and head east. But my god we’re unti mid feb by then and do we even have any faith in that given how it keeps getting delayed?

[frd]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Only good thing there is that should roll over into a good look a few days later. Trough east of Hawaii argues that trough in the west should cut under and head east. But my god we’re unti mid feb by then and do we even have any faith in that given how it keeps getting delayed?

My sentiments upon looking at the EPS 

 

 

 

 

[psuhoffman]

6 minutes ago, frd said:

My sentiments upon looking at the EPS 

 

 

 

 

Yup that sums up my attitude exactly. 

 

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said:

You live in NH?

He must be kidding. Or needs a geography lesson. 

[CAPE]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

Only good thing there is that should roll over into a good look a few days later. Trough east of Hawaii argues that trough in the west should cut under and head east. But my god we’re unti mid feb by then and do we even have any faith in that given how it keeps getting delayed?

Mostly I posted it just to instigate.  

I cant be bothered with post day 10 means anymore. I am pretty much with Mr Chill in that regard. But yeah I can see it getting to a good look not far beyond that panel. It has diverged from the weeklies after only one day though lol. At some point we gonna run out of road for this can. 

 

[frd]

19 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

I cant be bothered with post day 10 means anymore. I am pretty much with Mr Chill in that regard. But yeah I can see it getting to a good look not far beyond that panel. It has diverged from the weeklies after only one day though lol. At some point we gonna run out of road for this can. 

Not sure if there is any study to back this up , or if there is an observed relationship, but someone told me ( who knows meteorology well ) that any good look you see in a week based off a certain run of the weeklies requires 7 additional days to really develop. So, for example,   if the week of Feb 14 th looks awesome or appears to have a KU pattern or close to it then expect the next week, Feb 21 st to have sensible weather closer to that look a higher % of the time. Who knows, but thought it was interesting. 

Also, hearing the reason the EPS had that look was the reaction of the Euro to a slight delay with the MJO progression, per Isotherm. 

[CAPE]

10 minutes ago, frd said:

Not sure if there is any study to back this up , or if there is an observed relationship, but someone told me ( who knows meteorology well ) that any good look you see in a week based off a certain run of the weeklies requires 7 additional days to really develop. So, for example,   if the week of Feb 14 th looks awesome or appears to have a KU pattern or close to it then expect the next week, Feb 21 st to have sensible weather closer to that look a higher % of the time. Who knows, but thought it was interesting. 

Also, hearing the reason the EPS had that look was the reaction of the Euro to a slight delay with the MJO progression, per Isotherm. 

It probably is related to the MJO. What else could it be this winter? lol.

I fully expect the advertised EPAC look on the EPS to "become" favorable over the next 2-3 runs.

[Bob Chill]

Just now, frd said:

Not sure if there is any study to back this up , or if there is an observed relationship, but someone told me ( who knows meteorology well ) that any good look you see in a week based off a certain run of the weeklies requires 7 additional days to really develop. So, for example,   if the week of Feb 14 th looks awesome or appears to have a KU pattern or close to it then expect the next week, Feb 21 st to have sensible weather closer to that look a higher % of the time. Who knows, but thought it was interesting. 

Also, hearing the reason the EPS had that look was the reaction of the Euro to a slight delay with the MJO progression, per Isotherm. 

Imho- the reason behind all wx models not doing well beyond just 10 days let alone 6 weeks is that we're a helluva long way away from that type of reliable skill modeling global weather patterns. As advanced as NWP has become it's still far away from good skill in the long range.

In our area, if you guess above normal temps and below normal snow you'll be right 70% of the time. It's that easy here. Lol. From the way it looks now it appears that every long ranger who went active and snowy in the east is in trouble. Still time for a 4th quarter comeback but the ticking clock is getting louder and louder. 

I do appreciate long rangers and i read their stuff like everyone else. I'm not knocking them at all because the good ones have exceptional knowledge about the various drivers of the global atmosphere. It's a very humbling hobby fraught with curve balls and surprises.

If I had followed my own rules in November I could have nailed this winter based on the PDO alone. When the pdo is negative going into winter we struggle here. I'll go back and double check through the years however i already know there aren't many exceptions. 2013-15 was a long duration +pdo and there's no doubt in my mind a good portion of our success those winters had to do with that. 

Ninos generally have a defined +pdo by December. This year did not. It had the opposite. It has improved quite a bit since Dec but still not a solid +pdo. We can do a post mortem in 6 weeks or so and see what happened with the very accurate 20/20 hindsight model. 

[Maestrobjwa]

8 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Imho- the reason behind all wx models not doing well beyond just 10 days let alone 6 weeks is that we're a helluva long way away from that type of reliable skill modeling global weather patterns. As advanced as NWP has become it's still far away from good skill in the long range.

In our area, if you guess above normal temps and below normal snow you'll be right 70% of the time. It's that easy here. Lol. From the way it looks now it appears that every long ranger who went active and snowy in the east is in trouble. Still time for a 4th quarter comeback but the ticking clock is getting louder and louder. 

I do appreciate long rangers and i read their stuff like everyone else. I'm not knocking them at all because the good ones have exceptional knowledge about the various drivers of the global atmosphere. It's a very humbling hobby fraught with curve balls and surprises.

If I had followed my own rules in November I could have nailed this winter based on the PDO alone. When the pdo is negative going into winter we struggle here. I'll go back and double check through the years however i already know there aren't many exceptions. 2013-15 was a long duration +pdo and there's no doubt in my mind a good portion of our success those winters had to do with that. 

Ninos generally have a defined +pdo by December. This year did not. It had the opposite. It has improved quite a bit since Dec but still not a solid +pdo. We can do a post mortem in 6 weeks or so and see what happened with the very accurate 20/20 hindsight model. 

So hang on a second...so we do have a smoking gun in all of this? The PDO? (whatever that is?) So if it ain't positive by mid-December, we're generally screwed?

[poolz1]

15 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Imho- the reason behind all wx models not doing well beyond just 10 days let alone 6 weeks is that we're a helluva long way away from that type of reliable skill modeling global weather patterns. As advanced as NWP has become it's still far away from good skill in the long range.

In our area, if you guess above normal temps and below normal snow you'll be right 70% of the time. It's that easy here. Lol. From the way it looks now it appears that every long ranger who went active and snowy in the east is in trouble. Still time for a 4th quarter comeback but the ticking clock is getting louder and louder. 

I do appreciate long rangers and i read their stuff like everyone else. I'm not knocking them at all because the good ones have exceptional knowledge about the various drivers of the global atmosphere. It's a very humbling hobby fraught with curve balls and surprises.

If I had followed my own rules in November I could have nailed this winter based on the PDO alone. When the pdo is negative going into winter we struggle here. I'll go back and double check through the years however i already know there aren't many exceptions. 2013-15 was a long duration +pdo and there's no doubt in my mind a good portion of our success those winters had to do with that. 

Ninos generally have a defined +pdo by December. This year did not. It had the opposite. It has improved quite a bit since Dec but still not a solid +pdo. We can do a post mortem in 6 weeks or so and see what happened with the very accurate 20/20 hindsight model. 

I wonder if the lack of a classic +PDO falls into Tip's idea of a lack of gradient?  If the PDO was in classic nino form we would have that cold tongue pointing across the PAC creating that gradient.  

[Bob Chill]

6 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

I wonder if the lack of a classic +PDO falls into Tip's idea of a lack of gradient?  If the PDO was in classic nino form we would have that cold tongue pointing across the PAC creating that gradient.  

I think it's part of it. That and the nino is pretty weak. The pac ssta config as a whole has never looked good. I'd say the current npac ssta config is the best so far this season. Don't know if it will turn things around but it's surely a net positive in the bigger picture.

Everything works like an orchestra so it's never just one thing. However, unless enso takes over we always want the pdo to be positive. You won't find many enso neutral years with a negative pdo that were good snowy winters. 

[frd]

10 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

I wonder if the lack of a classic +PDO falls into Tip's idea of a lack of gradient?  If the PDO was in classic nino form we would have that cold tongue pointing across the PAC creating that gradient.  

That is a good point,  not sure where Tip was targeting,  as in the West Pac, basin-wide warmth, the lack of extreme warm waters in the Gulf of Alaska.  I read the post they had over in the NE forum, but I can not recall. 

Seems like a lot is out of whack,  even though  HM has theories, just reading him, the research lacks, or has never been done in certain areas he speaks of, that says a lot  about this winter. 

    

[frd]

14 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

I wonder if the lack of a classic +PDO falls into Tip's idea of a lack of gradient?  If the PDO was in classic nino form we would have that cold tongue pointing across the PAC creating that gradient.  

We also set records this Jan for the number of days and amplitude of MJO phase 5, we are into uncharted waters in this era. 

[Bob Chill]

41 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

It probably is related to the MJO. What else could it be this winter? lol.

I fully expect the advertised EPAC look on the EPS to "become" favorable over the next 2-3 runs.

I agree about things improving faster than people currently think. If we do get a big dig in the west I'm almost positive it won't last long (if it happens at all). A lot of high pressure showing on the ens means around the pole and greenland. That counts for something. I'd be surprised if the long range blocking we've seen over and over never happens at all. 

I'm not going to post much about it though. The fun of discussing this stuff is at an all time low. 

[frd]

Cool,  long and interesting .

 

 

and the NAO 

Anthony Masiello‏ @antmasiello

FollowingFollowing @antmasiello

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The wave trains that lead to certain modes of circulation in the eastern North Pacific (and downstream to the western North Atlantic) can breed latent fluxes of momentum that affect the NAO. Simply, anticyclonic wave breaks in eastern N. Pac western N. Atlantic intensify +NAO.conversation

icky chaboy‏ @NChaboy h6 hours ago

1. • More

     Replying to @antmasiello

     So a +NAO is what is most likely going to prevail 

   • Anthony Masiello‏ @antmasiello 5h5 hours ago

     I'm not sure how you concluded that. The torque goes back and forth regularly and doesn't have a 1:1 correlation with the NAO.

     nicky chaboy‏ @NChaboy 6h6 

   • Trust me I don’t know how I got that also lol

   • Anthony Masiello‏ @antmasiello 5h5 hours ago

     
     

     I'm just trying to bring a wave-perspective that ties in the tropical forcing. This may or may not be allowing the MT from N. Amer to have more influence. I don't have anything quantitative on that, so there's nothing more I can say. There are papers that link the MT to the NAO.

      
   • nicky chaboy‏ @NChaboy 5h5 hours ago

     Ok thanks ant! Appreciate that. Sorry if my questions sometime make no sense lol

      

      

      

      
   • Anthony Masiello‏ @antmasiello 5h5 hours ago

     
     

     it's no problem. I like that you want to know more, just like me. But there's only so much we can say right now. Search for papers that link the North American Torque to the NAO. As you know, not all is this simple IRL, but you can take away key concepts and apply IRL.

      

      
   • Steve Hoffman‏ @psuhoffman 5h5 hours ago

     
     

     What’s your gut say...this ever gonna get right for snow in the northern mid Atlantic coast or this just not our year?

     Anthony Masiello‏ @antmasiello 5h5 hours ago

     my gut says that we will get it right. of course, it may still not be our year. I would say it has been VA's year.

    
2. New conversation

   • Crislan‏ @crislan9999 6h6 hours ago

     More

     Replying to @antmasiello

     Sounds like you're leaning toward a transient warm/cold game of ping pong for Feb? With a +NAO scenario, no chance of locked in cold? Is winter over?

     Anthony Masiello‏ @antmasiello 5h5 hours ago

     I didn't say anything about February in this thread, and of course winter is not over.

   • Crislan‏ @crislan9999 5h5 hours agoMore

     Sorry. I was assuming your comment about NAO was foretelling the beginning Feb on since most models show cold moderating at that point. Thanks as always for your commentary, even if I only understand 10% of what you write.

      
   •  

     Anthony Masiello‏ @antmasiello 5h5 hours agoT

     there are papers linking the N. American Torque to the NAO. I was making a comment about how that may possibly be happening this month, but I have no actual data to back that up. That's all I was saying.

      

      

 

[aldie 22]

That's almost embarrassing the questions in HMs Twitter 

[aldie 22]

So what you're saying hm is if the mountain torque doesn't penetrate the nao domain in an mjo related upwelling that basically winter is over right hm right....gut feels!!! RIGHT

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, frd said:

Not sure if there is any study to back this up , or if there is an observed relationship, but someone told me ( who knows meteorology well ) that any good look you see in a week based off a certain run of the weeklies requires 7 additional days to really develop. So, for example,   if the week of Feb 14 th looks awesome or appears to have a KU pattern or close to it then expect the next week, Feb 21 st to have sensible weather closer to that look a higher % of the time. Who knows, but thought it was interesting. 

Also, hearing the reason the EPS had that look was the reaction of the Euro to a slight delay with the MJO progression, per Isotherm. 

We’re gonna slight delay ourselves right into spring at this rate. 

Fwiw I was in a twitter thread with Ian and HM and asked what his gut was and he said that we would “get right” at some point. But I’m not sure if he just meant for one snowstorm or a more significant run. Keep in mind his area is having an atrocious year so far, even worse than mine. 

ETA ninjad 

[Maestrobjwa]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

We’re gonna slight delay ourselves right into spring at this rate. 

Fwiw I was in a twitter thread with Ian and HM and asked what his gut was and he said that we would “get right” at some point. But I’m not sure if he just meant for one snowstorm or a more significant run. Keep in mind his area is having an atrocious year so far, even worse than mine. 

ETA ninjad 

Glad to see he answered some questions today (he doesn't always do that, it seems...or perhaps it may just be certain people, lol) Nice discussion--hope his and Bob's guts are right! 

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

This is my favorite frame. 1) You know the -NAO isn't going to happen. 

[psuhoffman]

50 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

So what you're saying hm is if the mountain torque doesn't penetrate the nao domain in an mjo related upwelling that basically winter is over right hm right....gut feels!!! RIGHT

HM has always been good about sharing his opinions. I used to chat with him a LONG time ago on aim i think before I knew much at all and he was cool about it.  I’ve learned a lot from him. But considering his posts about what has been going wrong regarding the NAO I think a lot of people were curious what he thoughts are going forward. He is one of the best. 

[psuhoffman]

50 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Glad to see he answered some questions today (he doesn't always do that, it seems...or perhaps it may just be certain people, lol) Nice discussion--hope his and Bob's guts are right! 

He answers some people. Ian is less optimistic. Also had a good point that not many years that lack any NAO blocking this late suddenly flip to epic blocking. Last year did in March but that kind of thing is pretty rare. 

[CAPE]

49 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said:

This is my favorite frame. 1) You know the -NAO isn't going to happen. 

2) ?

[aldie 22]

3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

HM has always been good about sharing his opinions. I used to chat with him a LONG time ago on aim i think before I knew much at all and he was cool about it.  I’ve learned a lot from him. But considering his posts about what has been going wrong regarding the NAO I think a lot of people were curious what he thoughts are going forward. He is one of the best. 

I agree he has been uncanny over the years he's obviously ahead of most. I could feel him getting a tad annoyed as some of the questions tried to put words in his mouth. I think with your question he felt like Virginia has had an ok winter...certainly your area is far behind