MD Snow Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 1 minute ago, leesburg 04 said: In the back of my mind I'm beginning to think Bob is doing the reverse psychology thing Totally. He wrote off January and a week later we’re tracking a snowstorm. He pretty much wrote off the weekend deal yesterday and it immediately started trending more favorably. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Euro is much quicker than the rest of the models with the storm's arrival. Has my area snowing by midday on Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 3 minutes ago, WVclimo said: Euro is much quicker than the rest of the models with the storm's arrival. Has my area snowing by midday on Saturday. AM Euro showing minor improvements, we are still a few days away. Overall, good trends from several models overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 9 minutes ago, WVclimo said: Euro is much quicker than the rest of the models with the storm's arrival. Has my area snowing by midday on Saturday. It did slow down more though on it’s 6z run. I believe the snow maps that are being posted for our area still include tomorrow nights event on them. No? Shave an inch or so off... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 23 minutes ago, frd said: Seems trends are good and started late day yesterday. When we opened this thread things started trending. Uh huh. That’s right! Hopefully by 18z today we’re all talking about how much we’re getting in our backyard. Nothing for the front yard though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 18 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: In the back of my mind I'm beginning to think Bob is doing the reverse psychology thing Worked before so why not? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 13 minutes ago, frd said: AM Euro showing minor improvements, we are still a few days away. Overall, good trends from several models overnight. Comparing the Euro at 90h on 06z to 96h on 00z I see the vort over the deep south is a little further SW, I'm assuming that's what we're looking for because that might imply better separation of the streams and less phasing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 3 minutes ago, Scraff said: When we opened this thread things started trending. Uh huh. That’s right! Hopefully by 18z today we’re all talking about how much we’re getting in our backyard. Nothing for the front yard though. So basically the overnight Euro moved towards the Ukie and the colder NAM , and the AM Euro shows less influence form the TPV. If the positive trends were to cotinue today this would be the focus to watch. I would think the evolution might mean, for certain areas, a flip to snow at the end is becoming more likely. Then that sudden temp drop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 1 minute ago, DCTeacherman said: Comparing the Euro at 90h on 06z to 96h on 00z I see the vort over the deep south is a little further SW, I'm assuming that's what we're looking for because that might imply better separation of the streams and less phasing? That's what I see. The NS was a little out in front compared to 0z and "leaving behind" the SS. A phase does us no good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 A storm giving the northern tier good snow while semi-screwing the southern gang would balance the karma of things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 11 minutes ago, frd said: So basically the overnight Euro moved towards the Ukie and the colder NAM , and the AM Euro shows less influence form the TPV. If the positive trends were to cotinue today this would be the focus to watch. I would think the evolution might mean, for certain areas, a flip to snow at the end is becoming more likely. Then that sudden temp drop. i feel like decent back end snow never works out as we hope it does. the precip always moves out faster than the cold air rushing in. i know this particular front is pretty strong, so its possible the cold floods in before the departing storm. but ehhh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 7 minutes ago, PhineasC said: A storm giving the northern tier good snow while semi-screwing the southern gang would balance the karma of things. That’s bad karma rooting for a southern screw job. You’re screwed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 11 minutes ago, PhineasC said: A storm giving the northern tier good snow while semi-screwing the southern gang would balance the karma of things. That's true, and as a DC guy I wouldn't even be mad considering we just scored. My bar is low for this one. If DC can get 1-2 inches as the arctic front came through I'd be more than happy. 06z EPS mean maps look a little better for the DC area with a potential changeover. Here is the 24 hour 06z snow map ending ending Sunday afternoon with 00z for comparison. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 1 minute ago, Scraff said: That’s bad karma rooting for a southern screw job. You’re screwed. The weather gods know it's every man, woman, and child for themselves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 3 minutes ago, mappy said: i feel like decent back end snow never works out as we hope it does. the precip always moves out faster than the cold air rushing in. i know this particular front is pretty strong, so its possible the cold floods in before the departing storm. but ehhh. This is definitely a better setup for you and psu to work that MD line magic, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WesternFringe Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 12 minutes ago, PhineasC said: A storm giving the northern tier good snow while semi-screwing the southern gang would balance the karma of things. I thought that was what the storm a few days ago was for... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Just now, PhineasC said: This is definitely a better setup for you and psu to work that MD line magic, though. yeah, I agree with that. I think, as things stand now, I could pick up a few inches before the flip to rain. but i never expect the flip back to snow to ever work out well. but, as i said, its a pretty strong front pushing through so its possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 regarding the weekend: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 1 minute ago, mappy said: regarding the weekend: Valentines Day 2007 storm comes to my mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 6 hours of freezing rain sounds ugh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said: Valentines Day 2007 storm comes to my mind. i saw your tweet about that. i wasn't in the Baltimore region for that storm but recall it being messy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 3 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Valentines Day 2007 storm comes to my mind. Thankfully that storm had mostly sleet rather than freezing rain. So it wasn't too disastrous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 14 minutes ago, mappy said: i feel like decent back end snow never works out as we hope it does. the precip always moves out faster than the cold air rushing in. i know this particular front is pretty strong, so its possible the cold floods in before the departing storm. but ehhh. Yeah, I hear ya. These types of situations never work out like you say, maybe 1 out of 5. We have more time though, maybe if we are lucky even "some" backend snow would be nice. I will keep my fingers crossed for you. Brrr...... afterwards Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Just now, Fozz said: Thankfully that storm had mostly sleet rather than freezing rain. So it wasn't too disastrous. But the sleet turned into concrete and encased everything. I couldn't move my car for awhile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 1 minute ago, frd said: Yeah, I hear ya. These types of situations never work out like you say, maybe 1 out of 5. We have more time though, maybe if we are lucky even "some" backend snow would be nice. I will keep my fingers crossed for you. Brrr...... afterwards haha, no need to cross fingers, though i appreciate it. the weather is gonna do what it do. ill take whatever i get Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 7 hours ago, ravensrule said: Damn.... that is so close to being something really good for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 2 minutes ago, anotherman said: But the sleet turned into concrete and encased everything. I couldn't move my car for awhile. Yeah, the sleet caused its own issues, and it was incredibly hard to shovel. But we had no problems with the power, or with huge numbers of trees coming down, which is what ice storms tend to do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Just now, Fozz said: Yeah, the sleet caused its own issues, and it was incredibly hard to shovel. But we had no problems with the power, or with huge numbers of trees coming down, which is what ice storms tend to do. True, no power issues, but boy was it impactful. I lived near Owings Mills at the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 The NAO is very stubborn. I guess the NAO is awaiting Feb to dive negative. Well, I am waiting. To match some long range looks up top and near Greenland you expect to see it trend South. Maybe I am missing something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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