January/February Medium/Long Range Disco

[psuhoffman]

24 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Mean ridge axis out west is not bad either on the GEFS in the LR.

Some really smart experts (and non hype) think the tropical forcing in the pacific is finally going to become favorable soon. We can hang our hat on that I guess. 

Isotherm made a great point last night that the pna and NAO are linked. A pna ridge aligns the longwave pattern right for waves to assault the NAO domain and attempt a ridge there. Obviously a pna isn’t the only way to a -NAO nor does it guarantee one, other variables can mute or enhance that, but there is linkage. The same reason the pna is failing is to blame for the NAO failure. 

My own thoughts added to that...the pna is a less stable feature. It can persistently reload but it’s very volatile due to fluctuations in the mid latitude jet. The NAO being at high latitude can be a more stable feature. Maybe if we can get a pna ridge (which really would be indicative of a more favorable pac forcing) just long enough to allow the NAO to tank we will be ok. I’m less optimistic we get a stable long term pna. No long range guidance suggests that. But if a transient one can tank the NAO we could be fine as then a split flow undercutting a epo ridge is perfect. 

[LP08]

5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Some really smart experts (and non hype) think the tropical forcing in the pacific is finally going to become favorable soon. We can hang our hat on that I guess. 

Isotherm made a great point last night that the pna and NAO are linked. A pna ridge aligns the longwave pattern right for waves to assault the NAO domain and attempt a ridge there. Obviously a pna isn’t the only way to a -NAO nor does it guarantee one, other variables can mute or enhance that, but there is linkage. The same reason the pna is failing is to blame for the NAO failure. 

My own thoughts added to that...the pna is a less stable feature. It can persistently reload but it’s very volatile due to fluctuations in the mid latitude jet. The NAO being at high latitude can be a more stable feature. Maybe if we can get a pna ridge (which really would be indicative of a more favorable pac forcing) just long enough to allow the NAO to tank we will be ok. I’m less optimistic we get a stable long term pna. No long range guidance suggests that. But if a transient one can tank the NAO we could be fine as then a split flow undercutting a epo ridge is perfect. 

I think the FV3 at 6z shows the progression you are talking about.  262 it pops a +PNA.  By 300 its sending a wave towards the NAO domain and pumping heights and by 384, a stout west based block with undercutting STJ.  I know its an operational run but wanted to add a picture to what you are describing.

 

 

 

 

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

@psuhoffman...There's been some discussion of the WAR and whether anything can get that to move out of the way, e.g., if we can finally get some kind of -NAO to boot it out.  Question I have for you, if you remember any details of this offhand...how did we get Feb. 2015 to "work", so to speak?  Not suggesting these two situations are the same, but as you know that winter kinda sucked until close to Valentine's Day, then we had like 5 weeks on the heater (or extreme cooler, as it was!).  I don't recall any -NAO to speak of that winter (or the one before, in '13-14), but we had a favorable +PNA/-EPO.  I seem to recall the WAR was killing us in Jan and early Feb of 2015 before we finally got things to go right.  Was the PNA ridge just simply in a better location then?  I can't remember the other nuances of that season.  Just curious, trying to find out ways things could potentially work for us at some point the second half of this season, at least hopefully.

[CAPE]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

Some really smart experts (and non hype) think the tropical forcing in the pacific is finally going to become favorable soon. We can hang our hat on that I guess. 

Isotherm made a great point last night that the pna and NAO are linked. A pna ridge aligns the longwave pattern right for waves to assault the NAO domain and attempt a ridge there. Obviously a pna isn’t the only way to a -NAO nor does it guarantee one, other variables can mute or enhance that, but there is linkage. The same reason the pna is failing is to blame for the NAO failure. 

My own thoughts added to that...the pna is a less stable feature. It can persistently reload but it’s very volatile due to fluctuations in the mid latitude jet. The NAO being at high latitude can be a more stable feature. Maybe if we can get a pna ridge (which really would be indicative of a more favorable pac forcing) just long enough to allow the NAO to tank we will be ok. I’m less optimistic we get a stable long term pna. No long range guidance suggests that. But if a transient one can tank the NAO we could be fine as then a split flow undercutting a epo ridge is perfect. 

Certainly some impressive blocking showing up on most guidance. Again, I never buy the stable block idea until it's happening in real time. As long as there is some mechanism for persistence (PNA related or whatever else), multiple relatively short lived or semi-stable episodes might work. Right now all we have is transient ridging, which is mostly a function of PV lobes rotating through the NAO domain.

[psuhoffman]

10 minutes ago, LP08 said:

I think the FV3 at 6z shows the progression you are talking about.  262 it pops a +PNA.  By 300 its sending a wave towards the NAO domain and pumping heights and by 384, a stout west based block with undercutting STJ.  I know its an operational run but wanted to add a picture to what you are describing.

 

 

 

 

Thanks Good find. Hasn’t looked at the fv3 but that is indeed the exact progression I was talking about with cape.  

[Wonderdog]

I counted three or four possibilities on the 6z FV3 run. Sometimes when I loop through these runs quickly,  it seems the run is choppy like the graphics is missing data .

[Ji]

56 minutes ago, LP08 said:

I think the FV3 at 6z shows the progression you are talking about.  262 it pops a +PNA.  By 300 its sending a wave towards the NAO domain and pumping heights and by 384, a stout west based block with undercutting STJ.  I know its an operational run but wanted to add a picture to what you are describing.

 

 

 

 

woah..tha that might be the best look ive seen all year....sets up for PD3

[frd]

It appears we advance the MJO into phase 8, which would be welcomed news indeed.  

[Superstorm]

It appears we advance the MJO into phase 8, which would be welcomed news indeed.  

Finally!!

 

That MJO has been killin us

 

 

.

[snowmagnet]

38 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said:

@psuhoffman...There's been some discussion of the WAR and whether anything can get that to move out of the way, e.g., if we can finally get some kind of -NAO to boot it out.  Question I have for you, if you remember any details of this offhand...how did we get Feb. 2015 to "work", so to speak?  Not suggesting these two situations are the same, but as you know that winter kinda sucked until close to Valentine's Day, then we had like 5 weeks on the heater (or extreme cooler, as it was!).  I don't recall any -NAO to speak of that winter (or the one before, in '13-14), but we had a favorable +PNA/-EPO.  I seem to recall the WAR was killing us in Jan and early Feb of 2015 before we finally got things to go right.  Was the PNA ridge just simply in a better location then?  I can't remember the other nuances of that season.  Just curious, trying to find out ways things could potentially work for us at some point the second half of this season, at least hopefully.

I’m not an expert at all, but I do remember hearing from Mets that we had quite a few storms that year that produced because the PV acted as a substitute for a -NAO

[Bob Chill]

@psuhoffman

Like i said in banter. I'm not over analyzing d15 panels anymore. Think about how much they've changed in 2 days. It was an epic disaster just a few runs ago. Now it's good bit still flawed. Do you think the moving around is done yet? I don't at all so I'll worry about the bad or celebrate the good when it's at a reasonable lead time. 

[psuhoffman]

46 minutes ago, snowmagnet said:

I’m not an expert at all, but I do remember hearing from Mets that we had quite a few storms that year that produced because the PV acted as a substitute for a -NAO

 

1 hour ago, Always in Zugzwang said:

@psuhoffman...There's been some discussion of the WAR and whether anything can get that to move out of the way, e.g., if we can finally get some kind of -NAO to boot it out.  Question I have for you, if you remember any details of this offhand...how did we get Feb. 2015 to "work", so to speak?  Not suggesting these two situations are the same, but as you know that winter kinda sucked until close to Valentine's Day, then we had like 5 weeks on the heater (or extreme cooler, as it was!).  I don't recall any -NAO to speak of that winter (or the one before, in '13-14), but we had a favorable +PNA/-EPO.  I seem to recall the WAR was killing us in Jan and early Feb of 2015 before we finally got things to go right.  Was the PNA ridge just simply in a better location then?  I can't remember the other nuances of that season.  Just curious, trying to find out ways things could potentially work for us at some point the second half of this season, at least hopefully.

Sorry I wanted to answer this sooner but had to teach some 16 year olds the difference between monetary and fiscal policy first.  If you think having to read snowstorm321497024632q0498732 is bad you should try that!  

Anyways... I will try to answer the best I can.  I am not sure 2015 is the best example we want to use because IMO we got kind of lucky.  We had a general 3-6" storm mid Feb that was a complicated multiple wave trough that split the difference just right to get it done for DC.  It was a pretty localized event, not a big storm, and it took advantage of a transient 50/50 feature.  After that we had a warning event from a jacked up cutter that really only worked because of one of the coldest antecedent air-masses you could ever hope for.  We were near 0 the night before the storm.  But the storm did cut, take away that crazy cold and it never would have ended well.  And then we got a warning event in March from a trailing wave behind a cutter rainstorm that hit us just right.  The only one of those 3 that actually was a good setup was the 3-6" storm in mid Feb.  The other 2 warning events were kind of flukes that 9/10 times wouldnt work if repeated the same pattern.  Take those 2 away and 2015 suddenly becomes very similar to 2007, another very cold Feb and Mar year but without much snow and we remember it as a fail.  If you look at the pattern they are nearly identical though.  We just got a little more luck in 2015.  Trying to score that way is kind of living dangerously imo.  

That said...there are reasons that 2015 at least allowed us to have a chance to get snow that the current pattern is lacking.  I will throw a couple other examples of EPO based patterns that worked and what was different about them that we are lacking right now.

This is the warning event from March 2015.  This pattern honestly looks like CRAP.  No NAO or PNA help.  BUT...look where the TPV is located, in eastern Canada causing lower heights to our north and into the 50/50 space.  That created just enough suppressive push on the boundary that a wave was able to amplify but stay under us.  But even then, it only worked because that wave came right behind a cutter, so it still took perfect timing, thread the needle, and a convoluted setup, but even with all that going out way, it required something we don't have right now, lower heights to our north creating some suppressive pressure on the storm track.

This is why I said the other day we would have a window in the day 8-12 range as the TPV makes it exit after visiting Chicago...it will rotate through eastern Canada.  Its a transient window because it looks to keep moving and rotate through the nao domain before possibly finally weakening which could allow some blocking to develop.  But as it traverses that area it would create a temporary window of opportunity.  The euro kind of likes the idea with several members running a wave up the east coast during that period.  But so long as we have the TPV in central canada and the epo off the west coast... with a WAR to our northeast...not gonna work.

This next one, early February 2003, is another analog that was being thrown around to this year and it was a nice 4-7" snowstorm for our area with a epo pattern.   This storm gets forgotten a lot as it happened a little before the PD2 blizzard.  I like this example because there is a WAR and we overcame it.  Positive NAO... but look where the EPO is centered, inland in western Canada.  On top of that, or more accurately in response to that, the PV was weakened and elongated west to east creating that confluence to our north and suppressing the west to east wave that came across.  In this case the WAR actually helped it gain just enough latitude at the last minute to give us a snow event.  But again, we had a mechanism to create some confluence and suppression to our north. In this case a better placed EPO ridge and better orientation of the TPV.

This one, March 2014, was another somewhat similar example where the TPV was stretched west to east and a lobe rotated on top of us in just the right time to suppress a wave.  I was in central PA at the time and that PV lobe screwed us.  From 4/5 days out models were showing a 2 foot snowstorm for central and norther PA but rain for DC.  Then they picked up on that TPV lobe rotating down into eastern canada and boom snowstorm for this area.  This one would frustrate me as I think Manchester was fringed pretty bad on this storm.  It was Baltimore south.  

This last one is from December 2002.  Another analog year and a EPO driven event.  But again look where there is a vortex located...in the 50/50 space.  Plus look at where the EPO is centered inland in western Canada.  That made this one work.  

So there are ways to make an epo pattern work without the NAO, but not if the EPO is centered off the west coast AND there is a WAR.  That is a total fail combo.  We either need the TPV to become displaced into eastern Canada to knock down the WAR and create confluence to our north, get the EPO centered east of where it has been, or develop a real NAO block which would typically force a piece of the TPV to rotate under it into the 50/50 region and knock down the WAR.  The NAO option is the most preferable as it also helps in other ways but if we can't get that the other 2 would at least give us a chance...but any storm threat coming when the EPO or PNA combo ridge is centered west of a Idaho to Yukon line and there is a WAR...forget it.  If it has any amplitude at all it will cut west of us.  

[psuhoffman]

31 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

@psuhoffman

Like i said in banter. I'm not over analyzing d15 panels anymore. Think about how much they've changed in 2 days. It was an epic disaster just a few runs ago. Now it's good bit still flawed. Do you think the moving around is done yet? I don't at all so I'll worry about the bad or celebrate the good when it's at a reasonable lead time. 

I get that..and it makes sense.  But from my perspective, there are several features the guidance isn't getting wrong.  The long range guidance hasn't been completely messing up the whole longwave pattern.  Mostly just the NAO part of it.  The western ridge has been centered too far west on most of the guidance all month...and the WAR has been there too.  What the guidance keeps screwing up is tanking the NAO.  That one thing though makes all the difference to our snow chances.  All those other same features actually work pretty good if we have a real NAO block.  The WAR gets shunted east a little bit, the TPV gets suppressed into southeast Canada creating confluence, and now the location of the EPO ridge becomes ideal as the pac jet can cut under it and throw stj waves at us.  Take away the NAO block and keep the rest the same and its a total crap cutter pattern.  So I get the whole "it could be wrong so why worry" attitude.  But imo it hasnt all been wrong just the NAO.  So why would expecting the guidance to be wrong now about those other features be likely?  It seems to me that the epo and war are base state features that are likely to remain.  They are semi permanent features on guidance.  I have not seen ANYTHING that has shown a good snow look here without an NAO.  The good looks have ALL needed the -NAO to do it.  Any run or period that lacks the NAO features the bad EPO/WAR combo we are in now.  So if the guidance continues to screw up and be wrong about the NAO tanking...I have a bad feeling we will be stuck in this same general problem we are having now.  

I am not giving up.  The guidance is still saying the NAO tanks.  Isotherm and others seem to think it will and that we are about to finally get the right pac tropical forcing to facilitate that.  I am not saying its not going to happen.  I am just saying I don't see an alternative pathway to a win here. 

That last comment might also be specific to the northern part of this forum.  I guess if you are just trying to beat climo... lucking your way to it if we continue this flawed pattern through the rest of winter is very likely.  Even with the EPO/WAR combo enough cold will be around that some weak wave, clipper, or multiple wave caboose type thing will eventually luck its way over us.  Or you will score during a transient window as a TPV lobe rotates through the 50/50 area like possibly next week.   It will probably snow a couple more times in this pattern.  But a MECS/HECS level storm is highly unlikely and a string of moderate storms back to back to back is also highly unlikely and for my area a couple 3-6" storms wont even get me close to climo.  I need an EPIC February just to get to an average year.   I am still 28" away from my mean snowfall.  You are like 6/7?    I am not getting there with a few nickel and dime events but you could.  So we might have very different perspectives on what we "need" and are looking for to be satisfied. 

Put it this way... if you get 10" and I get 15" the rest of the way... this was an above average "decent" or "good" snowfall year by most standards for you... and for me it would have been my worst snowfall winter ever in 15 years up here!  

With that said you are probably hunting for a serviceable pattern and I am hunting for the EPIC one I need just to pull off a save.  So I am probably being more negative on these flawed looks that could snow but are unlikely to pull off the parade of snowstorms or HECS level event I need than you are.  

[Bob Chill]

PSU, all I'm saying is it's still only the last week of January and we really don't know how things are going to look in 2 weeks. My guess is still a good bit different than what is showing up now (in the good direction or bad). I get where you're coming from but your posts come off like you already know the NAO is going to fail the the winter is doomed. I don't have that same perspective at all. That's where I'm coming from. 

[Ji]

7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

PSU, all I'm saying is it's still only the last week of January and we really don't know how things are going to look in 2 weeks. My guess is still a good bit different than what is showing up now (in the good direction or bad). I get where you're coming from but your posts come off like you already know the NAO is going to fail the the winter is doomed. I don't have that same perspective at all. That's where I'm coming from. 

does anyone know the key to forecasting a -NAO? Seems like everyone guesses and gets it wrong. is there a forecasting methodology to the -NAO. I have heard stuff like SST's,etc but no has it down 

[Bob Chill]

Just now, Ji said:

does anyone know the key to forecasting a -NAO?

There isn't one. It's the most difficult teleconnection to model in advance. They can literally sneak up in the med range. We're riding a long term persistence train though so it's easy to hedge on failure. Which will work perfectly until it doesn't. 

[psuhoffman]

Just now, Bob Chill said:

PSU, all I'm saying is it's still only the last week of January and we really don't know how things are going to look in 2 weeks. My guess is still a good bit different than what is showing up now (in the good direction or bad). I get where you're coming from but your posts come off like you already know the NAO is going to fail the the winter is doomed. I don't have that same perspective at all. That's where I'm coming from. 

I have come off wrong and that is my fault then.  I don't feel that way at all.  Here is how I feel...

I am frustrated that the NAO has failed several times to flip.  I thought it would have by now...and I was wrong.   I still think it is likely to go negative in February as there seem to be indications the pacific will be more favorable for that.  But my confidence is maybe 60/40 on that where it was 80/20 before.  

IF....only if...the nao fails to establish real blocking then I do think we are unlikely to get a really good pattern or snowfall period.  That does not mean it wont snow the rest of the way and the rest of the year will be a total fail.  But we are unlikely to get any stretch of multiple snowfalls and anything we would look back on 20 years from now as a "great period".  

Forget years like 1996, 2003, 2010, 2014...that whole season epicness is obviously off the table.  But I mean a run like Feb/Mar 1958, Jan/feb 1966, Jan/feb 1987 where it was epic for a 3/4 week period.   If we can get the NAO to tank that is still on the table.  Without that I don't see it.  

Some have been arguing that we can work with this without the NAO... I have been trying to convey that I really don't think so.  Not that I don't think it will snow at all...or that the NAO is doomed, just that I don't see us getting a "good" snow period without it.  The other factors arent lined up right this year.  I could be wrong, if we don't get the nao I hope I am!!!  I would much rather be wrong with snow than right without it. 

Lastly, if we don't get NAO help this is what I think the rest of the winter looks like.

Transient cold shots, the majority of amplified storms will cut, but our area will likely get lucky with a clipper, and a wave or 2.  Either a trailing wave, or a system that times up perfectly during a transient advantageous TPV location.  Our area from south to north likely gets another 7-15" the rest of the season in that scenario.  The problem is for the southern 2/3 of this forum that is probably totally acceptable.  For the northern 1/3 that is a total epic fail.  So like I said before we probably have different opinions of what life without the NAO will look like the rest of the way.  

[Bob Chill]

@psuhoffman

I've given up on worrying/stressing on d15 stuff. I've switched to chips fall mode and just let things happen. Here's a good visual of why I think it's best for me to hang it up...

The 12z EPS run on the 22nd looked terrible for Feb 4th and continued to get worse in the later panels. I think we can all agree that this panel sucks:

 

But just 2 days later that same day in time actually looks pretty good now. Some confluence, a little blocking, and an overall good looking panel. Not perfect but eons better that what was shown just 2 days ago. This isn't even happening way at the end of the runs either. It's right in the middle of the d10-15 range. 

 

This is more than an insignificant shift right? Especially in the Pac. What else can change in 2 days...or 4...or 10? Maybe the Pac and NAO really are going to end up looking really good sooner than we think. I'm not crapping on long range analysis because I love it as much as anybody but when there is no consistency or confidence inside of 15 days it's really hard to worry about d15+. For all we know the transformation to acceptable blocking is coming to a theater near us soon. If it doesn't then we just have to work with the hand we're dealt. This is where I'm at with this stuff. 

[MD Snow]

If we're looking for a coastal/big storm I'm thinking somewhere between the feb 1-3 is a window. PV starts pulling north and the block is legit. 

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

@psuhoffman...Many thanks for that detailed explanation, appreciate your efforts and the plots to describe what was going on in 2015 (vs. currently).  Definitely shows how it can work if you have that similar look, but also it's amazing just how lucky it was that we pulled things off in Feb/Mar 2015.

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

Sorry I wanted to answer this sooner but had to teach some 16 year olds the difference between monetary and fiscal policy first.  If you think having to read snowstorm321497024632q0498732 is bad you should try that!  

I admit, I LOLed at this pretty hard!  So true!  It almost makes one wonder what snowstorm321497024632q0498732 would write in a paper explaining the difference between monetary and fiscal policy, if he were in your class.  Wait, on second thought, that would be a very poor idea...I don't think I'd want you subjected to that!! 

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

31 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

For all we know the transformation to acceptable blocking is coming to a theater near us soon.

Well, let's just hope it's not a box office flop!  Otherwise Ji will be calling this the Ishtar of winters! 

[Bob Chill]

GEFS continues to look workable through the end of the run. 12z run keeps the east below normal @ 2m and 850s through the end of the run. Slowly building confidence that we enter an extended wintry regime basically right now through the foreseeable future. 6z gefs is better @ h5 late in the run but signs of a shutout type pattern have been receding every day.

Will be very interesting where all this goes. Pac may actually cooperate for the first time since early Dec. 

[Bob Chill]

I'm liking the AO progs now. Unanimous agreement with the GEFS, GEPS, and EPS that it's going negative. The 3 previous times it dropped to -2sd or lower since mid Nov it snowed here twice and in the deep south once. GEFS forecast spread looks really nice.

ETA: Made a mistake with the deep south snowstorm. That was a phase change so the 2 times it dropped to -2sd or lower it snowed here. We can only hope for it to happen again. 

[CAPE]

7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

GEFS continues to look workable through the end of the run. 12z run keeps the east below normal @ 2m and 850s through the end of the run. Slowly building confidence that we enter an extended wintry regime basically right now through the foreseeable future. 6z gefs is better @ h5 late in the run but signs of a shutout type pattern have been receding every day.

Will be very interesting where all this goes. Pac may actually cooperate for the first time since early Dec. 

Agree. The 6z run had a pretty sweet looking west based -NAO towards the end, the 12z run is more east based. I like the general position of the ridge axis out west too. Overall, things are progressing rather nicely.

[CAPE]

Recent runs of the GEFS should make Psu happy. Lots of red up top and across northern Canada in the LR. No blue ball!

[psuhoffman]

16 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

GEFS continues to look workable through the end of the run. 12z run keeps the east below normal @ 2m and 850s through the end of the run. Slowly building confidence that we enter an extended wintry regime basically right now through the foreseeable future. 6z gefs is better @ h5 late in the run but signs of a shutout type pattern have been receding every day.

Will be very interesting where all this goes. Pac may actually cooperate for the first time since early Dec. 

 

8 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Agree. The 6z run had a pretty sweet looking west based -NAO towards the end, the 12z run is more east based. I like the general position of the ridge axis out west too. Overall, things are progressing rather nicely.

The 6z and 12z GEFS are both virtually identical for a day 16 ensemble mean.  The differences are noise imo.  Both are workable, but more importantly are a step towards what we really want.  That Aleutian trough is pushing the PNA far enough east to get something to amplify into the east not the central US.  That is incredibly important because even with just a weak -NAO get something to bomb out into the east and amplify the trough there and that WAR won't be long for this world.  Get a system to amplify up into there and shift that WAR up into the NAO which would cut it off into a true block...and then when the PAC inevitably undercuts the PNA ridge again as it has done all year... we will be ok, better than ok actually.  That is all the natural progression from where that day 16 mean is...of course it means that day 16 pattern has to be accurate.  

Taking bets....

[psuhoffman]

7 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Recent runs of the GEFS should make Psu happy. Lots of red up top and across northern Canada in the LR. No blue ball!

you just ninja'd me...  good job!!!  read my post

[psuhoffman]

As CAPE just pointed out those GEFS runs also no longer have amplified flow around a PV up there to run interference with attempts at ridging in the high latitudes so the next attempt should be successful....IF that is correct.  

[pasnownut]

2 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

PSU, all I'm saying is it's still only the last week of January and we really don't know how things are going to look in 2 weeks. My guess is still a good bit different than what is showing up now (in the good direction or bad). I get where you're coming from but your posts come off like you already know the NAO is going to fail the the winter is doomed. I don't have that same perspective at all. That's where I'm coming from. 

That’s what I was saying the other day and got cooked for it. LR has been nothing short of abysmal and with SSW going on my hopes was for the AO to run the show which in itself could suppress the flow and stop the cutting. I wasn’t looking to be told otherwise as it can happen. We all have opinions and no one has really nailed anything, so I’m up for whatever it takes and like I said, bootleg snow is still snow. 

[mattie g]

2 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

PSU, all I'm saying is it's still only the last week of January and we really don't know how things are going to look in 2 weeks. My guess is still a good bit different than what is showing up now (in the good direction or bad). I get where you're coming from but your posts come off like you already know the NAO is going to fail the the winter is doomed. I don't have that same perspective at all. That's where I'm coming from. 

Maybe not, but at least we have the weeklies to let us know how things will look four weeks from now.