Bob Chill Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 12 minutes ago, jaydreb said: Thanks for the guidance Bob. Much appreciated. No problem. Interpreting ensemble mean plots is really hard at first. Took me literally several years to fully grasp the concept. The biggest thing to grasp is an ensemble mean is a nice pretty "smoothed out" representation of the atmosphere. In real time it NEVER looks like that. In real time all the edges are sharp and all the features are tightly defined. The ensemble mean give you a hedge or best guess as to where the ridges and troughs are most likely to be at any given time. The panel we both posted favors an eastern trough and a western ridge. Pretty much the gold standard bare minimum we need to feel ok about at least being in the game. IMO- it's looking more and more like once the trough blasts in here on Friday that the east may very well be in a trough more often than not for quite awhile. More eastern troughing days = better chances that something eventually works out for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 No posts in three hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 No posts in three hours. Well it's a winter thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 Somehow the pattern discussion ended up in the storm thread. Lol. I noticed but there was a really good conversation going on with isotherm so I don’t think anyone wanted to derail it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 Somehow the pattern discussion ended up in the storm thread. Lol. I noticed but there was a really good conversation going on with isotherm so I don’t think anyone wanted to derail it. I dont think there is need for a threat thread right now lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 4 hours ago, Ji said: although i read that the effects of MJO have a 2 week lag...so maybe we feel the phase 5 lag in 2 weeks smh no Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 25 minutes ago, Ji said: 42 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Somehow the pattern discussion ended up in the storm thread. Lol. I noticed but there was a really good conversation going on with isotherm so I don’t think anyone wanted to derail it. I dont think there is need for a threat thread right now lol Gefs and eps like the 30th. If you just look at the snow mean on the eps it looks weak but 40 out of 50 members drop at least some snow around the 30th give or take a day. That's not insignificant. Lol- now I'm posting about a specific storm threat in the lr thread. I guess it will help with our upcoming bust on the 30th. 2 threads will cut the bitching and moaning in half in each thread instead of one giant whinefest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Waiting on snow Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 I guess I'll hang out in here and chase a pattern that I'll most likely fail with down here, regardless if its epic or not!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 10 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Gefs and eps like the 30th. If you just look at the snow mean on the eps it looks weak but 40 out of 50 members drop at least some snow around the 30th give or take a day. That's not insignificant. Lol- now I'm posting about a specific storm threat in the lr thread. I guess it will help with our upcoming bust on the 30th. 2 threads will cut the bitching and moaning in half in each thread instead of one giant whinefest. Ok I don’t actually care about this panel. I think it has to be the result of extreme divergence within the spread and the eps probably has the right idea but my god you have to laugh at this panel. It’s as if the snow gods decided to troll us and just threw up all over our whole 1/4 of the planet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 Look the h5 on the fv3 towards the end. That’s our best hope for getting this right in Feb. that’s the progression we want. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 38 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Ok I don’t actually care about this panel. I think it has to be the result of extreme divergence within the spread and the eps probably has the right idea but my god you have to laugh at this panel. It’s as if the snow gods decided to troll us and just threw up all over our whole 1/4 of the planet. What's not to like? Clearly a - NAO. Smells like victory Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 6 hours ago, Ji said: @psuhoffman instead of talking about how the MJO can hurt us..maybe it can actually help us in time for Feb. We are almost out of phase 5. Phase 6 will be cold for us except for a rain event..and then right into 7 where it looks like more amplitude than originally thought. If we fail, i dont think we can blame the MJO this time I'm completely onboard with that idea! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 @C.A.P.E. I dunno how we ended up following the CFS but after picking up on the failure of the NAO to initiate this week it had several runs of extreme volatility but has now settled it seems into a new course where we suck from about Feb 2-13th THEN the NAO tanks and it gets really good by Feb 20th and looks great the last week of Feb and first of March. so I have absolutely no faith in that. Sad thing is if that actually happens I’m fine with it. Late feb and early March isn’t too late to get a save up here. It certainly takes having a good winter off the table but salvageable is still there. But isn’t it obvious what keeps happening. First the weeklies and cfs first false start was early January. Then they pushed it to mid January. Then late. Then early Feb. now it’s mid February. At some point doesn’t it become silly to keep buying it? I guess according to Isotherm and John and HM the pac is finally becoming supportive. I’m skeptical that’s all. One last thing though...once the pattern reloads on both the weeklies and cfs the ridge axis out west is still too far west to work without the NAO part. I am not sure where this is going but I’m very confident that the idea that “we can make this workable somehow without the NAO” isn’t going to happen. Everything indicates the ridge axis in the pac is likely to remain west of where we need it absent blocking. No blocking no dice. So when I hear people talking about being skeptical that the NAO helps but being “ok” with that I have my doubts. I really think we need the NAO or we are going to continue this cutter pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 18 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I am not sure where this is going but I’m very confident that the idea that “we can make this workable somehow without the NAO” isn’t going to happen. Everything indicates the ridge axis in the pac is likely to remain west of where we need it absent blocking. No blocking no dice. So when I hear people talking about being skeptical that the NAO helps but being “ok” with that I have my doubts. I really think we need the NAO or we are going to continue this cutter pattern. naol If there was ever a time period where just guessing the NAO might work in our favor, one way or another, it is Feb. Feb is the money month. Over and over again the past 16 years when there was some type of El Nino and Feb came along it produced for a certain time. Ok, not all the El Ninos in the past 16 years in the month of Feb had a pronouced -NAO but you get the picture. Many did though. Also, maybe we get lucky and the ridge axis moves more East in time. all I think about now is Boise High pressure. That was a great Isotherm back and forth earlier, very educational. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 4 minutes ago, frd said: If there was ever a time period where just guessing the NAO might work in our favor, one way or another, it is Feb. Feb is the money month. Over and over again the past 16 years when there was some type of El Nino and Feb came along it produced for a certain time. Ok, not all the El Ninos in the past 16 years in the month of Feb had a pronouced -NAO but you get the picture. Many did though. Also, maybe we get lucky and the ridge axis moves more East in time. all I think about now is Boise High pressure. That was a great Isotherm back and forth earlier, very educational. The weeklies agent as bad but the ridge is centered west often there too but this is the cfs I was talking about. These look great but look at where the western ridge is. Remove the NAO and the trough would retrograde and we would have the same crap pattern we are in now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 @frd look at the weeklies run from 3 weeks ago for this week. Looked great but look at the ridge axis out west. What failed was the NAO. See a theme here. Without the NAO this isn’t going to work. Guidance isn’t getting the whole longwave pattern wrong just the NAO but that one thing changes everything. Looking at the “good look” on the long range guidance I see the same thing. Remove the NAO blocking and we will be in the same place we are now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 13 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: look at the weeklies run from 3 weeks ago for this week. Looked great but look at the ridge axis out west. What failed was the NAO. See a theme here. Without the NAO this isn’t going to work. Guidance isn’t getting the whole longwave pattern wrong just the NAO but that one thing changes everything. Looking at the “good look” on the long range guidance I see the same thing. Remove the NAO blocking and we will be in the same place we are now. Very interesting observation psu. Ironic, the weeklies show the same great look almost every Monday and Thursday evening. Yet the NAO never materializes. Lets see tomorrow evening whether they catch on to the NAO issues, or they continue the theme of a developing NAO block . ( they as of yet has not happened ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 4 minutes ago, frd said: Very interesting observation psu. Ironic, the weeklies show the same great look almost every Monday and Thursday evening. Yet the NAO never materializes. Lets see tomorrow evening whether they catch on to the NAO issues, or they continue the theme of a developing NAO block . ( they as of yet has not happened ) Well, well.. it isn't the model that cried neg nao...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: @frd look at the weeklies run from 3 weeks ago for this week. Looked great but look at the ridge axis out west. What failed was the NAO. See a theme here. Without the NAO this isn’t going to work. Guidance isn’t getting the whole longwave pattern wrong just the NAO but that one thing changes everything. Looking at the “good look” on the long range guidance I see the same thing. Remove the NAO blocking and we will be in the same place we are now. There's also no Aleutian trough on that panel. Weeklies now have the Aleutian trough building in early Feb. It's now starting to show up on all 3 global ens. That should build the pna ridge further east so a -nao might not be required to get a good track. Of course it's better to have a neg nao but if our biggest challenge so far for storm track has been the ridge axis too far west then that could be fixed here shortly. Should set us right up for a PD2 redux. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 9 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: There's also no Aleutian trough on that panel. Weeklies now have the Aleutian trough building in early Feb. It's now starting to show up on all 3 global ens. That should build the pna ridge further east so a -nao might not be required to get a good track. Of course it's better to have a neg nao but if our biggest challenge so far for storm track has been the ridge axis too far west then that could be fixed here shortly. Should set us right up for a PD2 redux. Take advantage of this break. Get sleep, stock up on Red Bull and stock up on stout, ice melter and check up on your Jebman Shovels. Because once that pattern sets up - There aint gonna be NO sleepin for weeks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 Seriously, I hope the atmosphere takes advantage of all this mega-cold draining out of central Canada because I do feel like there is a flip to sustained warmth coming by mid to late February that will wipe out March entirely as a snow producer (my forecast being much above normal temps). This winter has some similarities to 1944-45, did you score that winter? All I know about it, the temp trend at Toronto went from bitter cold late January to normal Feb to warmest March and first half April on record (it did snow in late April though). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 3 hours ago, Bob Chill said: There's also no Aleutian trough on that panel. Weeklies now have the Aleutian trough building in early Feb. It's now starting to show up on all 3 global ens. That should build the pna ridge further east so a -nao might not be required to get a good track. Of course it's better to have a neg nao but if our biggest challenge so far for storm track has been the ridge axis too far west then that could be fixed here shortly. Should set us right up for a PD2 redux. Maybe. You could be right. But the Aleutian ridge depicted on the long range guidance is a bit too far north to help with the pna. It’s definitely helping with the epo but it allows the pac jet to undercut into the conus. If we have NAO blocking that is absolutely perfect and why we were so excited. But remove the NAO and that becomes a big problem. These are pretty similar for week 4. Neither indicates a pna ridge. Not much has indicated a pna ridge as anything more than a transient feature all winter. There were a couple off runs that did but the majority relied on the epo and NAO for our “epic” look. I never was counting on a pna ridge. I guess I have kind of given up on that. The pac is what it is and I’m doubtful we will get pna help much this year. So I don’t see a path to a great pattern without the NAO because we’re getting kinda late and even now if we look at the guidance for February that looks good, it only looks good because of blocking. If we “assume” the NAO will fail again like some are (very logically) the pattern will fail and end up looking like the one we are in right now. ETA: I’m also factoring in that as we get into Feb and March seasonal variance makes it even harder for epo based forcing to work here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 @Bob Chill there is a lot to like on the overnight runs heading into Feb but I still don’t see it working without the NAO. as you predicted the eps continues to trend away from a complete collapse. That’s not an awful look. But again we can see the epo ridge is centered way too far west to save us if the Atlantic keeps crapping on us. The pac jet is already undercutting there. That’s great if we have blocking and a disaster if we don’t. All we need there to get that right is slightly more ridging into Greenland which would shift that negative in central Canada under it and wipe out the WAR. Then we’re good. Without that I fail to see how that look is any different than the crap we’re dealing with right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 2 hours ago, psuhoffman said: @Bob Chill there is a lot to like on the overnight runs heading into Feb but I still don’t see it working without the NAO. as you predicted the eps continues to trend away from a complete collapse. That’s not an awful look. But again we can see the epo ridge is centered way too far west to save us if the Atlantic keeps crapping on us. The pac jet is already undercutting there. That’s great if we have blocking and a disaster if we don’t. All we need there to get that right is slightly more ridging into Greenland which would shift that negative in central Canada under it and wipe out the WAR. Then we’re good. Without that I fail to see how that look is any different than the crap we’re dealing with right now. The EPS continues to indicate that the pattern will undergo a minor reshuffle in the NPAC, mostly associated with the TPV. The feature that bothers me the most(now) and on the advertised look after the minor reshuffle, is still the WAR. If the western ridge axis were further east, the higher h5 heights hanging off the maritimes would likely weaken/shift further east. If you read my posts over the past few days, I said what we really need is a reshuffle that would result in the W ridge axis shifting further east, but if it goes right back to the same alignment, then the struggle to get a significant wave to track underneath will continue. I don't really see any reason why a 'real' -NAO would suddenly pop like the CFS is depicting, so we pretty much agree there. This isn't that far from a really good h5 look though- just need a minor phase shift in the longwave pattern. I blame the Nino "fail" for the warts. A flawed pattern is likely what we are going to have going forward, which is typical, but it could be much worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 45 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: The EPS continues to indicate that the pattern will undergo a minor reshuffle in the NPAC, mostly associated with the TPV. The feature that bothers me the most(now) and on the advertised look after the minor reshuffle, is still the WAR. If the western ridge axis were further east, the higher h5 heights hanging off the maritimes would likely weaken/shift further east. If you read my posts over the past few days, I said what we really need is a reshuffle that would result in the W ridge axis shifting further east, but if it goes right back to the same alignment, then the struggle to get a significant wave to track underneath will continue. I don't really see any reason why a 'real' -NAO would suddenly pop like the CFS is depicting, so we pretty much agree there. This isn't that far from a really good h5 look though- just need a minor phase shift in the longwave pattern. I blame the Nino "fail" for the warts. A flawed pattern is likely what we are going to have going forward, which is typical, but it could be much worse. dude--if we get a rainstorm on FEb 5...it would be one of the most epic long range forecasting busts....not one run of the weeklies or CFS led us to believe that that could even be possible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 22 minutes ago, Ji said: dude--if we get a rainstorm on FEb 5...it would be one of the most epic long range forecasting busts....not one run of the weeklies or CFS led us to believe that that could even be possible Long range snows seem to fade. Long range rainstorms only seem to get confirmed! So my bet is on rain... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 47 minutes ago, Ji said: dude--if we get a rainstorm on FEb 5...it would be one of the most epic long range forecasting busts....not one run of the weeklies or CFS led us to believe that that could even be possible I know you know this- it can rain in winter here anytime, regardless of the advertised long wave pattern on any LR guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said: The EPS continues to indicate that the pattern will undergo a minor reshuffle in the NPAC, mostly associated with the TPV. The feature that bothers me the most(now) and on the advertised look after the minor reshuffle, is still the WAR. If the western ridge axis were further east, the higher h5 heights hanging off the maritimes would likely weaken/shift further east. If you read my posts over the past few days, I said what we really need is a reshuffle that would result in the W ridge axis shifting further east, but if it goes right back to the same alignment, then the struggle to get a significant wave to track underneath will continue. I don't really see any reason why a 'real' -NAO would suddenly pop like the CFS is depicting, so we pretty much agree there. This isn't that far from a really good h5 look though- just need a minor phase shift in the longwave pattern. I blame the Nino "fail" for the warts. A flawed pattern is likely what we are going to have going forward, which is typical, but it could be much worse. The only way we’re getting rid of that war is with a NAO block Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 14 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: The only way we’re getting rid of that war is with a NAO block Probably. At least we have some guidance insisting that it will develop. 6z GEFS has a beautiful west based block. After one bad week, so does the CFS. I'm not convinced until I see it in near real time. We shall see. eta- GEPS is moving in that direction too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 Mean ridge axis out west is not bad either on the GEFS in the LR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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