Snowstorm5921 Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 13 minutes ago, PivotPoint said: The GEFS shows a fairly zonal flow by my estimates. Not a PAC puke by any means but quick flow. Not a lot of time for anything to amplify. I guess beggars can't be choosers I’m sorry but that is ugly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorm5921 Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: The GEFS is a total disaster. Eps isn’t. But trying to find good in that is like polishing a turd! Tpv bank over Baffin. Fast flow. Pac firehouse gets going again. Ridging starting to pop near Hawaii again. It’s a total mess and if the GEFS is right it’s probably game over. Just hope it’s wrong because it’s hard to get anywhere good from that. GEFS have definitely been better than the EPS this winter so definitely cause for concern! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 12 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Others might argue but I think the current epo/war configuration favors any amplified system to cut to our west. Strong storms to the left of us, weak crap to the right, here we are stuck in the middle with no snow With the -NAO and PV parked over eastern Canada next week, does the WAR overpower it causing systems to go west? My uneducated guess seems that those features would help promote more southern tracks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 2 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: It shows +PNA and -NAO the US warmth seems artificial and is probably gone in 2-3 days.. -NAO is very weak and offset by the pacific jet. But it wouldn’t take that huge a long wave error to change that to a better idea. Retrograde everything a bit and we get an eastern trough. But that’s manipulating the run. What that actually shows is a hot mess. I’m not saying I believe it. I don’t. But my confidence isn’t what it was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 Just now, psuhoffman said: -NAO is very weak and offset by the pacific jet. But it wouldn’t take that huge a long wave error to change that to a better idea. Retrograde everything a bit and we get an eastern trough. But that’s manipulating the run. What that actually shows is a hot mess. I’m not saying I believe it. I don’t. But my confidence isn’t what it was. NAO is actually further east than you think.. either way, that signal has been getting stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 1 hour ago, poolz1 said: Almost feel like ducking behind something by posting this...But, I liked what I saw on the EPS LR. If we are looking forward and not allowing the failure of past epic looks so far to cloud our opinion, the eps looks primed to jump right into it's weekly progression. Agreed, had the same thought when I saw the eps. Was starting to get a pain in my stomach when I saw the lower hgts shoot to AK but then as it progressed, at least on this run it looks like it's dumping it into the Aleutian trough which should pop a respectable pna ridge out west. You can already see the hgts starting to respond to it in the 14.5-16 day progression. At least for this run of the eps it was encouraging, and is more of a canonical nino look for February, but the LR has been bouncing a lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 NAO is turning negative. These EPO/WPO ridges do often retrograde and switch phases later, but because it's El Nino that might just become +PNA. It looks really good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 33 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: But trying to find good in that is like polishing a turd! Yuck ! Thats worse than me posting weather porn of 30 inches of snow next week from the Fv3 :-) Funny though, I almost spit out my coffee Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 11 minutes ago, frd said: Yuck ! Thats worse than me posting weather porn of 30 inches of snow next week from the Fv3 :-) Funny though, I almost spit out my coffee Louisiana gets more snow than us, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 2 minutes ago, PivotPoint said: Louisiana gets more snow than us, lol That's an epic pattern.....for the Gulf Coast. So there's that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 30 minutes ago, tombo82685 said: Agreed, had the same thought when I saw the eps. Was starting to get a pain in my stomach when I saw the lower hgts shoot to AK but then as it progressed, at least on this run it looks like it's dumping it into the Aleutian trough which should pop a respectable pna ridge out west. You can already see the hgts starting to respond to it in the 14.5-16 day progression. At least for this run of the eps it was encouraging, and is more of a canonical nino look for February, but the LR has been bouncing a lot. Not sure the accuracy of the ECM and the MJO forecast plots, but it advances the MJO pretty well along through 7 and then early Feb into a lower amp/orbit phase 8. Around this time as well indications of the SOI going negative and a more El Nino look. This all coincides with a very strong signal for a downwell effect from the strat to trop. Yeah, there have been one or two brief hits down lower but this is a very strong signal, that happens over a several day period. ( bottom image ) I also believe the recovery is a good thing. I have not lost hope yet. Still too early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 In addition to the above post, IsothermI (courtesy 33andrain ) , mentions that potentially the reason for the GEFS look is it's interpretation of the MJO phase. Bottom line here is if the GEFS is wrong, which is assumed, then its forecast at HL may be incorrect. Euro may have a better handle and hence the better long term view vs the GEFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 1 hour ago, LP08 said: With the -NAO and PV parked over eastern Canada next week, does the WAR overpower it causing systems to go west? My uneducated guess seems that those features would help promote more southern tracks. I will try to illustrate the issue...imo Yea the NAO is technically negative here but its not a real NAO block that helps us much. We want that ridge in the Atlantic centered over Greenland or even west of there and cut off. But instead the ridging into Greenland is really just an extension of the WAR. It would evolve from there into a true block EXCEPT...the TPV is too strong and centered in a bad spot. Its more that it's too strong, you will always have some vortex somewhere in north america but you want it weak so that its not amplifying the flow around it up there and running interference on blocking developing over the top. Watch what happens in the next frame. Yea the TPV splits but its still strong in general and the pieces are pinwheeling around acting as one TPV anyways and the flow around that deflects the ridging off and knocks down the NAO. The flow around the TPV is also preventing confluence to our north and promotes low pressures running to our NW. In my next post (wont let me upload more graphics to this post...Ill show this repeat again and how we could see this work long term) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 This is all cold. The snowstorm threat will come, it's been raining a lot. Day 1 is the warmest, and it starts warming up at Day 14, but that could easily trend toward more trough in the east like it's been doing a lot in this type of cycle since October. http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSTDEP2WIDE_6z/tloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 @LP08 This same thing happens again a few days later...which would be the 4th time And once again the TPV there is too strong and the flow around it deflects the attempt at blocking and we repeat the same crap... It's not that we can't have a vortex there, but we need it to either be weak...ideally we want red all across canada on a h5 anomaly map, so that the flow is weak and not disruptive, OR we want it to be extremely displaced and in the 50/50 domain, but to get that to happen it usually has to be weak...so either way we want a weak TPV... no blue balls, blue balls suck. Last Ill show how some long range guidance indicates this might improve next post... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 @LP08 So I am using the 0z FV3 just because I have access to the graphics but the EPS kind of agrees with this interpretation. This is close to what we want. The TPV split and the main piece retrograded and is still retreating west and will soon be in a good spot allowing the EPO ridge to redevelop. At the same time the TPV left behind in Canada is weak and no longer amplifying the flow enough to interfere with the attempts at ridging. There is already some true blocking developing here but that next heat flux from the ridge in the northeast should be able to enhance the ridging and complete the process this time. IF this long range idea of retrograding the TPV out of canada is correct, AND the TPV that retros through Alaska does get far enough west NOT to flood the conus with pac puke...then the reshuffle could work out this time. Its not like the NAO isnt trying to go negative it just keeps getting destructively interfered with each time. Get that TPV out of there and it might happen. But there are a lot of if's and buts between then and now. Hope this helped some and wasn't just confusing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 Wow @psuhoffman. Perfect and thanks again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 41 minutes ago, frd said: Not sure the accuracy of the ECM and the MJO forecast plots, but it advances the MJO pretty well along through 7 and then early Feb into a lower amp/orbit phase 8. Around this time as well indications of the SOI going negative and a more El Nino look. This all coincides with a very strong signal for a downwell effect from the strat to trop. Yeah, there have been one or two brief hits down lower but this is a very strong signal, that happens over a several day period. ( bottom image ) I also believe the recovery is a good thing. I have not lost hope yet. Still too early. I havent lost hope...I was kinda just bummed at the prospect of a "great" pattern kind of becoming a "mediocre" one and then the prospect of losing a week in early Feb waiting for a reload. Then I thought why not try trolling Mother Nature a bit...worked for Bob, he trolled his way to a foot of snow last week. But I do think its likely things reload quickly to a better look in Feb. And there is a chance if we get the TPV out of there it could be a much better look. Often the guidance doesn't see the MJO until its right in front of it. Reference the quick flip to colder last week and the snowstorm once it saw "oh the mjo is in phase 8 now" lol. And then the quick flip to a worse look when it saw "oh now its in phase 4". I see the same happening when it makes it back into 7/8 and it will, its been correcting stronger all year. Problem then is does it really last or does it quickly collapse and make a mad dash back to warm phases? Now that I have kind of conceded the Nino is dead and never coupled I cannot assume the MJO won't continue to dominate and be predominantly in warm phases. If we can get a 20 day period with it out of the way we have a shot to win still. We can get a couple big hits in a short time. But if we get another 7 days in cold phases and then it goes right back to phase 4 we probably won't have enough legit opportunities to win...at least for the northern part of this forum. DC could pull off one hit and beat climo still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 Thanks for the illustrations, @psuhoffman!!! I don't 100% (or even 80%, lol) understand, but...it does give me a slightly better visual idea of what we're looking for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: I havent lost hope...I was kinda just bummed at the prospect of a "great" pattern kind of becoming a "mediocre" one and then the prospect of losing a week in early Feb waiting for a reload. Then I thought why not try trolling Mother Nature a bit...worked for Bob, he trolled his way to a foot of snow last week. But I do think its likely things reload quickly to a better look in Feb. And there is a chance if we get the TPV out of there it could be a much better look. Often the guidance doesn't see the MJO until its right in front of it. Reference the quick flip to colder last week and the snowstorm once it saw "oh the mjo is in phase 8 now" lol. And then the quick flip to a worse look when it saw "oh now its in phase 4". I see the same happening when it makes it back into 7/8 and it will, its been correcting stronger all year. Problem then is does it really last or does it quickly collapse and make a mad dash back to warm phases? Now that I have kind of conceded the Nino is dead and never coupled I cannot assume the MJO won't continue to dominate and be predominantly in warm phases. If we can get a 20 day period with it out of the way we have a shot to win still. We can get a couple big hits in a short time. But if we get another 7 days in cold phases and then it goes right back to phase 4 we probably won't have enough legit opportunities to win...at least for the northern part of this forum. DC could pull off one hit and beat climo still. All good points, I am optimistic, but really frustrated at the same time, like everyone is. If what I posted previously about the MJO and the blocking turns out correct I would expect to see changes acrosss all guideance in a few days. Getting a window of oppurtunity to produce is what I feel will happen, tend to think later and will last a bit this go around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 9 minutes ago, LP08 said: Wow @psuhoffman. Perfect and thanks again. LOL no thank you, I wish my students cared as much about learning politics (my other passion) as you guys do about weather! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 Good analysis and prognostication PSUhoff. We were and have been so close to having a great Winter. Now, so close to having a great ending. Will the powers that thwarted what was on track for a great Winter thwart the ending as well.?..My guess is yes to some degree. One other factor that may play a role in fighting against us is the rising + QBO. . Although, probably not much weight from it as correlation rather weak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 27 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: This is all cold. The snowstorm threat will come, it's been raining a lot. Day 1 is the warmest, and it starts warming up at Day 14, but that could easily trend toward more trough in the east like it's been doing a lot in this type of cycle since October. http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSTDEP2WIDE_6z/tloop.html This is all butter. The carrot will come. It's been onioning a lot. Day 1 is the sand and then it gets eggs by Day 14, but that could easily trend toward more printers in the east like it's been doing a lot in this type of cycle since Mondurday. Shut up Chuck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 Cranky is more bullish on the Monday storm than I thought he would be. Also seems to think maybe the February 5 time period could be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: LOL no thank you, I wish my students cared as much about learning politics (my other passion) as you guys do about weather! Haha. I am here hopefully not to make a fool of myself. Since the strong TPV looks to set up shop next week basically through all guidance, is there a path to victory or is basically false hope? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 1 minute ago, osfan24 said: Cranky is more bullish on the Monday storm than I thought he would be. Also seems to think maybe the February 5 time period could be interesting. I am mildly interested in that period...Feb 5. As the TPV starts to retrograde and the current pattern breaks down there seems to be a short window. Once it splits a piece rotates through 50/50 space, and as the EPO comes down it temporarily opens a window when the trough axis would be supportive for us. After that we might have to wait through a relax before blocking (hopefully) forces a trough back into the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 2 minutes ago, LP08 said: Haha. I am here hopefully not to make a fool of myself. Since the strong TPV looks to set up shop next week basically through all guidance, is there a path to victory or is basically false hope? It's not the worst pattern imaginable. There is certainly cold around. There are ways that can work. Multiple waves along the boundary being the easiest one. One wave pulls the baroclinic zone through and the next rides the boundary. A weak wave that phases late could work but that's tricky. But its not the best look because anything that organizes and consolidates early will cut west of us. There is no confluence to our north to force anything south of us. It's not a shutout pattern but its not the really good one I was expecting either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 4 minutes ago, osfan24 said: Cranky is more bullish on the Monday storm than I thought he would be. Also seems to think maybe the February 5 time period could be interesting. Are his insights and forecasts decent ? He sure makes alot of map, pics, etc on his social account but is he right a decent amount of the time? Sometimes I see that Becka ? Becky, dissin him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 Just now, frd said: Are his insights and forecasts decent ? He sure makes alot of map, pics, etc on his social account but is he right a decent amount of the time? Sometimes I see that Becka ? Becky, dissin him. Becky seems to be a twitter weather troll imo. I have no opinion of Cranky though, dont follow him Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 He mostly does shorter term forecasting with long term thoughts from what I've seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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