January/February Medium/Long Range Disco

[Chris78]

2 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

That look there is about 2 days away from an eastern trough again. As the idea of the retrograding trough locks in for many days now I think it’s becoming likely. Guidance has struggles with the NAO but it has been ok with the rest of the long wave pattern. It makes sense with the strong mjo phase 4/5/6 spike.  The EPS does suggest it’s temporary but the fact we might lose a week in February which was supposed to be prime time is really disappointing to me. I do think there is time for another reload but I thought we would be past that by now. The mjo is really really really destroying this winter.  Last cfs run reloads the pattern but we lose Feb 1-15 basically  that’s a tough pill to swallow  

Plus for you and me we are really loosing time to save this thing up here. DC needs like 5” to beat climo. I still need 28” just to get to average. If we don’t score in the next 10 days and head into a relax reload needing that much just to get to climo and it’s likely Feb 12-15 before things get good again we’re in big trouble.  It will be pretty disappointing to not even get to climo this year. Maybe that’s my problem. I’m still chasing a good winter. I didn’t get bothered at all the last 2 years because I gave up on that and was just chasing any snow at all and trying to avoid an epic dumpster fire.  When there is a Nina people would do well to just give up in getting much snow and track for the chance at a fluke and it will save a lot of angst.  One decent storm was all I wanted. But this year has potential. This year I’m chasing beating climo and so basically having the same results as the last 2 winters at this point is way more frustrating. Maybe I need to reset my expectations and just try to avoid the total fail.

Been a tough year for the northern part of the forum. Wasn't expecting it to go down like this so far. In the fall I thought we were heading for a very good to great winter. This is definitely a your own back yard sport and I would grade my yard a D so far lol. If you take out the November surprise I've had 7 inches total for December and January. Every time it seems like were heading for the great pattern it just gets pushed back even more.

[Ji]

Everytime Bob goes bed....winter ends

[Blue Dream]

15 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

Been a tough year for the northern part of the forum. Wasn't expecting it to go down like this so far. In the fall I thought we were heading for a very good to great winter. This is definitely a your own back yard sport and I would grade my yard a D so far lol. If you take out the November surprise I've had 7 inches total for December and January. Every time it seems like were heading for the great pattern it just gets pushed back even more.

Even worse up here in SE PA...had an inch since the November storm

[PivotPoint]

1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Actually the WA +heights have been persistent for a while, centered off the Canadian Maritimes for the most part. That does need to change IMO. Essentially we have had a 50-50 high, which is problematic for getting a good storm track with cold air. The mean ridge axis out west needs to be further east, and if in fact what many runs of the GFS/GEFS have been suggesting comes to fruition, h5 heights will build into the NAO space and the WAR should weaken.

That's the goal

I thought the WAR had relaxed on the means starting mid-jan till basically now (or a couple days ago). Looks likes the ridge on the GEFS keeps getting pumped up in the medium range. I could be wrong on that

[Chris78]

Just now, JMcCaughey42 said:

Even worse up here in SE PA...had an inch since the November storm

Yes. Further north and east the worse it gets

[poolz1]

1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said:

The SWE happened, and so we got our piece of the TPV. Given that reality, I was also hoping to see the 'stretch', with the eastern lobe in the 50-50 region. The models were showing it, and it was a good look.

The 0z EPS did what I expected around AK with the PV, although I thought it might take a few runs. Lets hope that idea holds. Hopefully we start to see more red up top in future runs. That would seem to be a logical progression.

Almost feel like ducking behind something by posting this...But, I liked what I saw on the EPS LR.  If we are looking forward and not allowing the failure of past epic looks so far to cloud our opinion, the eps looks primed to jump right into it's weekly progression.

[PivotPoint]

1 hour ago, showmethesnow said:

Been positive this morning but I am going to Deb here for a second. Mind you this is just my general impression over the years, the statisticians can correct me if I am wrong, but it seems to me once we get WAR established and it reaches mid winter then it is very hard to dislodge. My thoughts at this point are that we will not see a sustained western/central based -NAO for the rest of the winter and only bootlegs as the WAR temporarily gets shoved up into the NAO domain before WAR gets reestablished. Wouldn't rule out a somewhat sustained east based -NAO as heights build out of Europe but that configuration typically doesn't work for us. Hoping I am wrong here.

I agree with this anecdotal point. Also, observationally my thoughts are that one main driver (EPO, PNA, NAO, War, Etc) tends to dominate (for good or bad) a seasonal pattern for the EC. The WAR seems to be ours this winter and it's not a favorable one to have. We'll probably look back in April and all be like "yup, that WAR did us in".

Who knows though

[Ralph Wiggum]

1 hour ago, showmethesnow said:

Been positive this morning but I am going to Deb here for a second. Mind you this is just my general impression over the years, the statisticians can correct me if I am wrong, but it seems to me once we get WAR established and it reaches mid winter then it is very hard to dislodge. My thoughts at this point are that we will not see a sustained western/central based -NAO for the rest of the winter and only bootlegs as the WAR temporarily gets shoved up into the NAO domain before WAR gets reestablished. Wouldn't rule out a somewhat sustained east based -NAO as heights build out of Europe but that configuration typically doesn't work for us. Hoping I am wrong here.

I dont think we are going to see the traditional look of a war feeding the nao. Instead maybe we should look out West to the EPO thumb ridge and hope somehow a piece can break off and head into the western nao region? I know that isn't a typical progression but who knows? Is that sort of epo progression rare or 'unpossible'? I'm thinking if we cant win on the ATL side maybe we can look for something crazy to happen at HL out West. Grasping for straws but something's gotta give.

[psuhoffman]

30 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

Been a tough year for the northern part of the forum. Wasn't expecting it to go down like this so far. In the fall I thought we were heading for a very good to great winter. This is definitely a your own back yard sport and I would grade my yard a D so far lol. If you take out the November surprise I've had 7 inches total for December and January. Every time it seems like were heading for the great pattern it just gets pushed back even more.

I’ve had 5” total since November 15  lol

[psuhoffman]

3 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

I dont think we are going to see the traditional look of a war feeding the nao. Instead maybe we should look out West to the EPO thumb ridge and hope somehow a piece can break off and head into the western nao region? I know that isn't a typical progression but who knows? Is that sort of epo progression rare or 'unpossible'? I'm thinking if we cant win on the ATL side maybe we can look for something crazy to happen at HL out West. Grasping for straws but something's gotta give.

That would be a highly unlikely progression. That kind of ridge would require either forcing the tpv completely east or north across the pole which would require a tremendous ridge or an outrageously extreme displacement south which wouldn’t be good anyways. Plus ridges in the high latitudes usually retrograde. I’m not sure that’s even likely enough to be worth rooting for. 

[psuhoffman]

@Ralph Wiggum

if we can get the tpv out of the way to stop deflecting attempts by the war to pump heights over the top it might work out. That’s a better bet than what you were describing. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

This is why I don’t waste a lot of time on strat stuff. They are really hard to predict. Then they don’t always impact the troposphere. Then if they do often it’s not in a way that increases our snow chances. It’s not a lot of bang for your buck imo. 

Sswe and subsequent resultant effects that prove favorable for us is like playing the high rollers slots. Play big to potentially win big. Hits are few and far between but a random jackpot will spin up that cant be predicted. Odds of winning are lower but the cashout can potentially be extremely good.

[CAPE]

26 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

Almost feel like ducking behind something by posting this...But, I liked what I saw on the EPS LR.  If we are looking forward and not allowing the failure of past epic looks so far to cloud our opinion, the eps looks primed to jump right into it's weekly progression.

Yeah this has been discussed here this morning. This is exactly what we want to see occur, and what I was trying to convince the panic stricken yesterday would be the likely progression.

eta- I expect the next edition of weeklies will look pretty much the same with the pattern progression.

[Ralph Wiggum]

6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

@Ralph Wiggum

if we can get the tpv out of the way to stop deflecting attempts by the war to pump heights over the top it might work out. That’s a better bet than what you were describing. 

Yeah I know. I was just thinking outside the box. Traditional thinking and modeling isnt really getting us anywhere so heck, why not?

[Jandurin]

I think I can (snow) I think I can (snow)?

[mattie g]

1 hour ago, leesburg 04 said:

Just as a casual observation for shits and giggles the long range op runs post 300 hours of the gfs were showing temps near 70 then started showing 60 then 50 then 40s now seeing 30s. Not scientific in any way but count me in the muted camp...and yes Ji I know it's not showing snow but to me jumpy does not instill confidence. My bold call...we get a substantial snow 4"+ around 2/2

PSU wants you to know that 4"+ won't get him to climo unless 4"+ =  52".

[MD Snow]

19 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I’ve had 5” total since November 15  lol

I get that areas north have had a rough go of it compared to their climo but I'm south of baltimore and have only had like 8" since November. I only got 1" with the November deal. 

[psuhoffman]

2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Sswe and subsequent resultant effects that prove favorable for us is like playing the high rollers slots. Play big to potentially win big. Hits are few and far between but a random jackpot will spin up that cant be predicted. Odds of winning are lower but the cashout can potentially be extremely good.

The 5 best snow periods of my life in the mid Atlantic did not get any help from a sswe. I’m not completely crapping on them. They CAN have extreme impacts and last year we saw that in March. But given the fact that is so rare and unpredictable and the fact we have had way more good snows without sswe help it seems a low return in time investment to me. 

[showmethesnow]

31 minutes ago, Ji said:

Everytime Bob goes bed....winter ends

Possible storm around the 30th, possible storm on the 2'nd, PAC bounces back in the long range, WAR might not give up and no sustained NAO>>>> after filtering through Ji's brain>>>>> WAR might not give up and no sustained NAO = This winter sucks, winter cancel.

[poolz1]

Just now, C.A.P.E. said:

Yeah this has been discussed here this morning. This is exactly what we want to see occur, and what I was trying to convince the panic stricken yesterday would be the likely progression.

Ah...my bad.  Just started reading from the top of the first page after looking at the overnight runs.

I agree completely that this progression is what we want to see.  There is just no way to from point A to point C without going through point B.  Point B being the temporary crap look with the vortex over/near AK. 

[MD Snow]

Question for those with more knowledge. Is the lack of concrete threats after today/tomorrow's deal because of modeling struggling with the new pattern? Or is it because it's just a crappy pattern? Favors being dry? I keep waiting for something to pop but we've been going on like 3-4 days of just lame chances/clippers/little over-runners. I'm wondering if we're headed into a generally dry period compared to the last couple of weeks?  

[mattie g]

6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The 5 best snow periods of my life in the mid Atlantic did not get any help from a sswe. I’m not completely crapping on them. They CAN have extreme impacts and last year we saw that in March. But given the fact that is so rare and unpredictable and the fact we have had way more good snows without sswe help it seems a low return in time investment to me. 

So you're saying frd should stop using up his daily post allowance by copying the tweets from Amy and John Anthony and Joe and Billy and Jane?

[Ralph Wiggum]

9 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The 5 best snow periods of my life in the mid Atlantic did not get any help from a sswe. I’m not completely crapping on them. They CAN have extreme impacts and last year we saw that in March. But given the fact that is so rare and unpredictable and the fact we have had way more good snows without sswe help it seems a low return in time investment to me. 

Yep just like the casino analogy. You can play the high roller slots (sswe) all day long and never hit the jackpot but theoretically you can play the nickel slots and hit that same jackot in 5 minutes. It is random luck imo (sswe) was my point.

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, MD Snow said:

I get that areas north have had a rough go of it compared to their climb but I'm south of baltimore and have only had like 8" since November. I only got 1" with the November deal. 

Some places southeast of 95 have been left out too!  This is an imby sport. And if I was sitting at like 33” now (which is the equivalent to where the dc area is wrt climo) I would probably be more content to see how a mediocre looking pattern plays out.  But at least you only need one good storm to get to climo. I could get 3 more warning events and still be a foot short of my average.  I have different expectations but I drive a freaking long way everyday so damn straight I expect the payoff. Lol. This is the last time im going to vent about climo though since no one else cares about my back yard nor should they. I want us all to win but if it can only be one or the other damn straight I would steal every flake if I had too. Snow is serious bidness 

[PivotPoint]

4 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Possible storm around the 30th, possible storm on the 2'nd, PAC bounces back in the long range, WAR might not give up and no sustained NAO>>>> after filtering through Ji's brain>>>>> WAR might not give up and no sustained NAO = This winter sucks, winter cancel.

The GEFS shows a fairly zonal flow by my estimates. Not a PAC puke by any means but quick flow. Not a lot of time for anything to amplify. I guess beggars can't be choosers 

[psuhoffman]

17 minutes ago, MD Snow said:

Question for those with more knowledge. Is the lack of concrete threats after today/tomorrow's deal because of modeling struggling with the new pattern? Or is it because it's just a crappy pattern? Favors being dry? I keep waiting for something to pop but we've been going on like 3-4 days of just lame chances/clippers/little over-runners. I'm wondering if we're headed into a generally dry period compared to the last couple of weeks?  

Others might argue but I think the current epo/war configuration favors any amplified system to cut to our west.  Strong storms to the left of us, weak crap to the right, here we are stuck in the middle with no snow 

[PCT_ATC]

55 minutes ago, Ji said:

Everytime Bob goes bed....winter ends

lol, every time you post, winter seems to end

[psuhoffman]

7 minutes ago, mattie g said:

So you're saying frd should stop using up his daily post allowance by copying the tweets from Amy and John Anthony and Joe and Billy and Jane?

Frd can do whatever he wants with his time. He has indicated he is fascinated with the phenomenon in itself. That’s totally cool. I’m just in it for the snow. I’m less concerned how we get it.  He posts some interesting stuff. I appreciate it as it saves me time scanning Twitter and not all of his stuff is sswe. But is spending a lot of time on the sswe the best way to track for snow...nope. 

[psuhoffman]

7 minutes ago, PivotPoint said:

The GEFS shows a fairly zonal flow by my estimates. Not a PAC puke by any means but quick flow. Not a lot of time for anything to amplify. I guess beggars can't be choosers 

The GEFS is a total disaster. Eps isn’t. But trying to find good in that is like polishing a turd!  Tpv bank over Baffin. Fast flow. Pac firehouse gets going again. Ridging starting to pop near Hawaii again. It’s a total mess and if the GEFS is right it’s probably game over.  Just hope it’s wrong because it’s hard to get anywhere good from that. 

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

The GEFS is a total disaster. Eps isn’t. But trying to find good in that is like polishing a turd!  Tpv bank over Baffin. Fast flow. Pac firehouse gets going again. Ridging starting to pop near Hawaii again. It’s a total mess and if the GEFS is right it’s probably game over.  Just hope it’s wrong because it’s hard to get anywhere good from that. 

It shows +PNA and -NAO the US warmth seems artificial and is probably gone in 2-3 days..