January/February Medium/Long Range Disco

[jaydreb]

It’s looking less and less likely that this will be an epic or even great winter.  That said, many of us (myself included) are at or above climo for this point in the winter and only need another decent event (6” or so) to be able to say that the winter was OK.  Take away all the expectations thay we had going into December and I can live with where I’m at.  

I totally understand that there are many in the forum who are well below climo and can understand their frustrations.  

[psuhoffman]

17 minutes ago, jaydreb said:

It’s looking less and less likely that this will be an epic or even great winter.  That said, many of us (myself included) are at or above climo for this point in the winter and only need another decent event (6” or so) to be able to say that the winter was OK.  Take away all the expectations thay we had going into December and I can live with where I’m at.  

I totally understand that there are many in the forum who are well below climo and can understand their frustrations.  

This. I probably would be more content with the mediocre look coming if I was having a decent winter so far but I’m actually below where I was at this point in 4 of the last 5 years and only an inch behind the worst year...and I considered that year a dumpster fire.  I’m kind of in “it better get really freaking good soon” mode or this year is a fail. Even if I get 25” in Feb/March I would still end up below climo by a few inches!!!

[CAPE]

24 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

@C.A.P.E. we lost the cfs completely. As I feared based on the last run once it saw the idea of the retrogression of the tpv and lack of extreme NAO blocking in the day 10-15 it flipped immediately. Latest run is a complete torch through all of February on all 4 members. 

 

Oh well. It will 'see' something else in a few days, or runs, and completely flip again. That's what it does lol.

EPS doesn't look good at the end of the run today, but there is a path forward from there to a favorable EPAC look. It certainly does not, however, look like it will follow the exact progression on the latest weeklies.

Also, its possible that the models don't quite have it right today(really?? noooo) for how the pattern progresses towards day 15. Again, the MJO is one possible fly in the ointment.

[psuhoffman]

6 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Oh well. It will 'see' something else in a few days, or runs, and completely flip again. That's what it does lol.

EPS doesn't look good at the end of the run today, but there is a path forward from there to a favorable EPAC look. It certainly does not, however, look like it will follow the exact progression on the latest weeklies.

Also, its possible that the models don't quite have it right today(really?? noooo) for how the pattern progresses towards day 15. Again, the MJO is one possible fly in the ointment.

Again...I’m not saying this can’t turn around. But there are a lot of ifs and buts in there. I’m kind of re-evaluating after this last complete collapse of the NAO for the 3rd time this winter. It’s obvious that after 3 attempts to flip got muted and thwarted that something is running destructive interference and models aren’t properly seeing it at range. They do the same thing sometimes in good years like 2014 constantly breaking down in long range only to become cold in the short term.  But looking at what I see and including the tendency of this season I’m not feeling “confident” anymore. 

Someone a bit ago when everything looked great said “at least this isn’t one of those years where we wait forever and then when the pattern flips it’s only ok and we can see the breakdown before the good even gets here”. But that kind of seems exactly what we ate trending towards but no one wants to admit it. I think some are in salvage what we can mode. That’s fine. I’m not saying close the lights and stop tracking. Tonight things could flip again!  But I have no faith at all anymore. 

[Jebman]

I feel your pain but this is not over, this winter aint over, not by a long shot.

[clskinsfan]

16 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

This. I probably would be more content with the mediocre look coming if I was having a decent winter so far but I’m actually below where I was at this point in 4 of the last 5 years and only an inch behind the worst year...and I considered that year a dumpster fire.  I’m kind of in “it better get really freaking good soon” mode or this year is a fail. Even if I get 25” in Feb/March I would still end up below climo by a few inches!!!

I have been lucky to be hit by both events this winter. But there is no way I will ever call this a great winter. We had absolutely nothing for an entire month. And I mean nothing. Couldnt even buy a snow shower or streamer. A big February would make this a decent to good winter. But no chance it could ever be called great IMO.

[pasnownut]

36 minutes ago, frd said:

Yes it is good news. Seems we get into a better pattern and a more typical Nino like back ground state with blocking where we need it.  

and at the time when it typically happens Feb/Mar

 

[Bob Chill]

It wouldn't surprise me if one of the shortwaves in the med range blows up and forces the nao negative and it stays that way. 

[Bob Chill]

Bootleg -nao and 50/50. Under 10 days too.

[CAPE]

23 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Again...I’m not saying this can’t turn around. But there are a lot of ifs and buts in there. I’m kind of re-evaluating after this last complete collapse of the NAO for the 3rd time this winter. It’s obvious that after 3 attempts to flip got muted and thwarted that something is running destructive interference and models aren’t properly seeing it at range. They do the same thing sometimes in good years like 2014 constantly breaking down in long range only to become cold in the short term.  But looking at what I see and including the tendency of this season I’m not feeling “confident” anymore. 

Someone a bit ago when everything looked great said “at least this isn’t one of those years where we wait forever and then when the pattern flips it’s only ok and we can see the breakdown before the good even gets here”. But that kind of seems exactly what we ate trending towards but no one wants to admit it. I think some are in salvage what we can mode. That’s fine. I’m not saying close the lights and stop tracking. Tonight things could flip again!  But I have no faith at all anymore. 

Clearly things aren't going 'as planned'. But, lol, that plan, at least what many of us came to expect based on most predictions, having a legit Nino, low solar, model looks etc, was something close to epic. Well, here we are, as usual, facing actual reality. For me, I would like to see 2-3 more events over the next 6 weeks, and hopefully get a foot of snow out of it. Plus some legit cold periods. That is totally doable from everything I am seeing at this juncture. I know your standards are higher than this, based on where you are now with snowfall, and your climo, but- imo with all of Feb and March in front of us, and prospects of several periods when the pattern is at least somewhat favorable(we aren't in a Nina at least) it is reasonable to think your area will achieve climo snowfall. That's all I want- average snowfall. If we get a great 3 week period coming up and we all get clobbered, then great. Not expecting it, and not going to be disappointed without it.

[pasnownut]

31 minutes ago, frd said:

Its Jan 22 nd. 

I am of an open mind and still feel Feb delivers.

We all know the tales of this winter to this point, but to pronouce winter is over is a bit of a bold statement to make on this date.  

I'm going to laugh, when those that are already writing it off, or have lost faith start seeing storms pop.  We still have a low end Nina and blocking is still favored moving forward.  That base state alone should keep panic down and just because the numbers dont correlate,  Ma nature doesnt really care.  Not saying epic times ahead, but Im just doubting the doubters.  Look at this winter so far and all of the prognostications blah blah blah.  We've been trying to make something from natsomuch.  Now Nina climo will be "on our side", so lets see if that helps. 

Noone has it figured out.  Thats the fun gang (well to me anyway). 

I'll be here tomorrow....and the day after....and the day after (so will every other weenie reading this).   

[pasnownut]

6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

It wouldn't surprise me if one of the shortwaves in the med range blows up and forces the nao negative and it stays that way. 

NOTHING should surprise us by now.

Next week looks to have a lot of NS vorts diving down, so something has to fall right for us.

[WestminsterSnowCapitalMA]

gfs bringing back the cold on this run 

[Ji]

Psu....this showed up all of the sudden...my big so cal upper low

 

 

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=z500_vort&runtime=2019012218&fh=198

[clskinsfan]

15 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

It wouldn't surprise me if one of the shortwaves in the med range blows up and forces the nao negative and it stays that way. 

Good call. The GFS has a -nao throughout the medium range. Blocking galore.

[Maestrobjwa]

3 minutes ago, Ji said:

Psu....this showed up all of the sudden...my big so cal upper low

 

 

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=z500_vort&runtime=2019012218&fh=198

Ah, there it is!!  Let us hope that this time can turn out better...Almanac does have a storm for the first few days of February, so...

[Ji]

Ah, there it is!!  Let us hope that this time can turn out better...Almanac does have a storm for the first few days of February, so...

If they are real...they are fun because you get fairly consistent runs so it's a long tracker that verifies more than normal if it dosent get shredded lol

[Ji]

If they are real...they are fun because you get fairly consistent runs so it's a long tracker that verifies more than normal if it dosent get shredded lol

They are also only fun when there a a 1040 high anchored in place

[Bob Chill]

2 minutes ago, Ji said:

9 minutes ago, Ji said:

If they are real...they are fun because you get fairly consistent runs so it's a long tracker that verifies more than normal if it dosent get shredded lol

They are also only fun when there a a 1040 high anchored in place

Fv3 has 2 shots at snow inside of 10 days. Not in the bullseye this run though. The SE gets a nice hit. Just seeing cold and shortwaves running boundaries is encouraging. 

Eps had quite a few similar progressions d5-11. Imho- the upcoming period after thursday's rain is the best setup this winter by a big margin.

[Ji]

Fv3 has 2 shots at snow inside of 10 days. Not in the bullseye this run though. The SE gets a nice hit. Just seeing cold and shortwaves running boundaries is encouraging. 

Eps had quite a few similar progressions d5-11. Imho- the upcoming period after thursday's rain is the best setup this winter by a big margin.

Jan 12 says hold my shovel. I think the dec 9 storm miss was actually our best setup

 

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

Strange little run, the 18z GFS guys. There is a chance the -PNA/SE ridge won't verify because models are defaulting on the 5-year trend. I've seen this happen before. 

[Fozz]

3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Fv3 has 2 shots at snow inside of 10 days. Not in the bullseye this run though. The SE gets a nice hit. Just seeing cold and shortwaves running boundaries is encouraging. 

Eps had quite a few similar progressions d5-11. Imho- the upcoming period after thursday's rain is the best setup this winter by a big margin.

Better than the early December setup that led to the southern slider?

[Bob Chill]

Just now, Ji said:

Jan 12 says hold my shovel. I think the dec 9 storm miss was actually our best setup

 

Yea, early Dec was really good. Everything fell to pieces immediately after. The jan storm goes in the fluke category. Transient cold and confluence lined up at a perfect time. Light event fits that pattern. Getting a foot was insanely lucky. Starting later this week we're actually going to have some semblance of blocking and a couple deep cold shots. I'm not convinced it's going to fall apart as quick as models say it is. Hopefully we score another event before we have to worry about it

[Bob Chill]

1 minute ago, Fozz said:

Better than the early December setup that led to the southern slider?

I just replied to Ji. That was the best big storm setup. It was a true heather A event. Unfortunately that was all she wrote. 

[Maestrobjwa]

5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I just replied to Ji. That was the best big storm setup. It was a true heather A event. Unfortunately that was all she wrote. 

Is that a new term or am I just now hearing it? Who the heck is Heather? 

[Bob Chill]

12 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Is that a new term or am I just now hearing it? Who the heck is Heather? 

There's a scientist named Heather Archaumbalt who researched phase changes of the NAO and big storms along the east coast. When the NAO goes through a phase change (+ to - or vice versa) it correlates with increased chances of a big winter storm somewhere on the east coast. Our area does the best when the NAO is deeply negative and flips positive but can work either way. It has to be a significant phase change. Cant be like -.5 flipping positive.

Jan 2016 was a classic Archambault event. So were 2 of the 09-10 storms. Jan 2011 might have been one but I'm not sure. If somehow the nao figures out how to go strongly negative coming up we could potentially have a window as it relaxes. No sign of that yet but the NAO is inherently difficult to forecast at longer leads. 

[clskinsfan]

The NAO does break down towards the end of the run. But I am encouraged to see it go negative in the early/mid range. This is the closest we have seen it modeled. I will worry about the long range later.

[MD Snow]

14 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

The NAO does break down towards the end of the run. But I am encouraged to see it go negative in the early/mid range. This is the closest we have seen it modeled. I will worry about the long range later.

Weenie post incoming - how many times has the nao been forecasted to go negative in the long range and didn’t verify? Maybe now that we have it in the short/med range it will hold in the long range? Also, isn’t the soi gonna go negative soon? MJO moving into later phases? All points to the blocking not breaking down?  

[BristowWx]

2 minutes ago, MD Snow said:

Weenie post incoming - how many times has the nao been forecasted to go negative in the long range and didn’t verify? Maybe now that we have it in the short/med range it will hold in the long range? Also, isn’t the soi gonna go negative soon? MJO moving into later phases? All points to the blocking not breaking down?  

We need to cash in fast. Spring is on vacation but will soon be looking to come home.  2/3 of met winter almost gone.  Let’s roll

[clskinsfan]

6 minutes ago, MD Snow said:

Weenie post incoming - how many times has the nao been forecasted to go negative in the long range and didn’t verify? Maybe now that we have it in the short/med range it will hold in the long range? Also, isn’t the soi gonna go negative soon? MJO moving into later phases? All points to the blocking not breaking down?  

It was funky the way it was modeled. It was transient. Broke down for a couple of days then went right back to negative again. But like you said. Who cares what is says at the end of the run. Just give me the -nao and I will take my chances.