January/February Medium/Long Range Disco

[CAPE]

14 minutes ago, Wonderdog said:

Do we need that trough in the Pacific to move up to Alaska?

No. The AK look is what we want to see- lower heights back over the Aleutians and a ridge over the interior/ W US. The ridge axis is a tad west of ideal on that panel though.

[yoda]

19 minutes ago, Ji said:

snow on euro day 10. Looks like southern Mid Atlantic Special but we get in on the action

Hmmm

 

[MD Snow]

[Snowstorm5921]

12z EPS look substantially worse compared to 0z.  Much lower heights in W Canada.

[LP08]

EPS looks better through 240.  After that the PV retros west.  I think we certainly have an opportunity the next 10 days.

[WxUSAF]

2 minutes ago, Snowstorm5921 said:

12z EPS look substantially worse compared to 0z.  Much lower heights in W Canada.

0z must have been awesome because the D10 EPS pattern is VERY good for us.

[LP08]

Just now, WxUSAF said:

0z must have been awesome because the D10 EPS pattern is VERY good for us.

I didn't want to quote him but yes, the look at day 10 is very nice.

[PivotPoint]

Just now, WxUSAF said:

0z must have been awesome because the D10 EPS pattern is VERY good for us.

Yea, no idea what he's talking about. 12z eps looked like its close to splitting flow again, east-based blocking, etc. Not horrible at all

[Bob Chill]

Just now, WxUSAF said:

0z must have been awesome because the D10 EPS pattern is VERY good for us.

Very nice improvement in the med range. Snowstorm needs to butt out and go back to his region. We don't need any more 1-2 sentence bad analysis around here. 

[showmethesnow]

 

1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

0z must have been awesome because the D10 EPS pattern is VERY good for us.

He's cherry picking the end of the run where the models haven't had much skill this year.

[Ji]

2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

0z must have been awesome because the D10 EPS pattern is VERY good for us.

look at day 16. Not much warm air. I am assuming cause of -AO

 

[LP08]

24 hr precip near day 10.  I know all day 10 caveats apply but there is a signal for a southern storm.

[donsutherland1]

3 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

Don, I think the strength (or lack of) is the bigger problem.   A lot of years people think of as modoki or central based like 2003 and 2010 actually evolved like this one did in terms of where the sst anomalies were and how they progressed.  Many of those years became basin wide as the warmth propagated east.  Very few modoki years stayed warmer in the central with colder in the eastern PAC throughout their life.  They often recede back west as they die off but this event is so weak and started so late that perhaps it simply isn't there yet.  SST guidance suggests it will die like a typical modoki though by retrogressing westward in spring.   In the past most dumped any nino that originated in the central PAC and then propagated east into the "other" category vs the classical nino that has its inception off the South American coast and propagates west.  This year definitely fell into the mold of the non classical nino BUT it was much much much weaker.  There is a newer and more stringent definition of modoki nino that requires the water remain warmer in the central pacific with colder anomalies in region 1+2 but by that definition years like 2003 and 2010 were not modoki nino's.   The "definition" thing annoys me because it creates confusion...I don't care what we call it but some are using the older definition where any nino that originates in the central pac and propagates east is "other" and some are using the newer classification.  But the problem to me is the strength, even with modoki's there is evidence that a really weak bordering neutral isn't really good for the mid atlantic.  If the nino is too weak it fails to initiate the atmospheric response we need to override other influences.  This year the ONI might be barely in weak nino territory but the MEI and the atmospheric response is neutral imo.  I also think Tip's theory on the lack of gradient also muting the nino impacts has merit.  And I bet if we looked at warm neutral years with similar other factors we would get a very different set of outcomes!  I made the same exact mistake you did in assuming a central based nino but I am realizing that isnt the way the atmosphere is behaving.  

Those are all good points. Certainly, there will be alot to review following the winter. At this point, it appears increasingly unlikely that we'll see atmosphere-ocean coupling. I agree concerning Tip's thinking. It offers a plausible explanation.

[psuhoffman]

2 hours ago, mappy said:

you've made your point. now its time to stop repeating it. and then hope your point pans out, otherwise you will be trolled relentlessly for it. 

He was saying it looked bad even when it looked good. I wish everyone would ignore him. I know I’ve been down today but at least when I say something looks bad it’s because it does and I’m not just trying to annoy everyone. And when it’s good I will say so. He is just noise since no matter what it looks like he says it’s awful. He was dubbing right before the foot of snow DC got too!

[psuhoffman]

2 hours ago, Ji said:

NO evidence...just hope. I hope I didnt waste my time waiting for what was suppose to be our best period. as the Sixers say...you got to trust the process. Nino Februarys are usually good. I think MJO will be in a good phase even though it wont have much impact. Soi will probably go back negative again.  I think the NAO blocking as it has been doing in the 2nd half of winter. There is a reason why the climate models all saw good Februarys. And frankly the models have been so wish washy 10-15 thats its hard to trust them no matter what they say. Ive even seen the GFs show purple around Greeland lately. So mostly i am going with hope and a gut feeling because the data as we see it now looks like crap lol

 Hope our process works out better than Fultz!!!

[yoda]

Interesting tidbit from the BUF AFD this afternoon (h/t @wolfie09)

In regards to the overall pattern though...an extremely robust
ridge will extend from Baja California poleward to the East Siberian
Sea (north of Siberia) while ridging will oscillate over Greenland.
This coupled +PNA and -NAO pattern is a CLASSIC cold weather
scenario...one that has supported some of the coldest outbreaks on
record. The two ridges will essentially lock a huge closed low (ie
polar vortex) over eastern Canada. As mentioned in previous
discussions...the coldest air in the northern hemisphere is
associated with this notorious feature. H85 temperatures are
forecast to be in the vcnty of -36c when the vortex is at its
southernmost extent next weekend (outside of this forecast period).
The combination of the expansive latitudinal west coast ridge and
`trapped` closed low will establish a prolonged cross polar flow
during this whole period...so this will ensure below normal temps.

Also...be wary of using simple NAO and PNA indices as a guide. These
indices are often calculated at specific points...so if the
hemispheric feature does not coincide with the point...the values
shown could be very misleading. It is suggested to use the actual
500 700mb forecast charts to see where the features are placed. This
is certainly the case during this period as the west coast ridge is
some 500 miles too far west to be picked up by the PNA indice...the
Greenland block is oscillating between being oriented north-south
and east-west so the NAO indice is somewhat misleading. Be careful.

[mappy]

3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

He was saying it looked bad even when it looked good. I wish everyone would ignore him. I know I’ve been down today but at least when I say something looks bad it’s because it does and I’m not just trying to annoy everyone. And when it’s good I will say so. He is just noise since no matter what it looks like he says it’s awful. He was dubbing right before the foot of snow DC got too!

see my post in banter

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, Ji said:

we are in the PSU window of new pattern but he bailed

I’m trying your reverse psychology voodoo but since you decided to try to be positive at the same time there is no way to know which is working!

[CAPE]

4 minutes ago, yoda said:

Interesting tidbit from the BUF AFD this afternoon (h/t @wolfie09)

 

 

500mb, MSLP panels, and eyeballs.

Only time I see NAO/PNA etc numbers or forecast graphs is when someone posts them.

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, Ji said:

snow on euro day 10. Looks like southern Mid Atlantic Special but we get in on the action

I’ll take my chances with that op euro look and suppression over the idea of retrograding the PV to Alaska. That look rolls forward to more chances even if that one gets squashed 

[pasnownut]

11 minutes ago, yoda said:

Interesting tidbit from the BUF AFD this afternoon (h/t @wolfie09)

 

 

Very good read.  Sounds like they favor a colder period starting this weekend.  Hoping we get a reversal in the next few model runs.  The board needs it.

His statements regarding the PNA and NAO fit into my earlier posts today as to not needing something to "fit" correctly into a certain category or indicies range for us to be able to get a storm around here.....bootleg style.  

[paulythegun]

hey uhhh can we talk about that hudson bay low and how awesome it's going to look on GOES?

[nj2va]

48 minutes ago, LP08 said:

24 hr precip near day 10.  I know all day 10 caveats apply but there is a signal for a southern storm.

 

Totally agree.  Loop the MSLP and you can see it faintly there but stronger as it heads north up the coast  

Are we talking storm threats here or the other thread though? I like splitting the threads...this one for teleconnections, LR pattern, weeklies, etc and the other for specific threats on the models. 

[psuhoffman]

@C.A.P.E. we lost the cfs completely. As I feared based on the last run once it saw the idea of the retrogression of the tpv and lack of extreme NAO blocking in the day 10-15 it flipped immediately. Latest run is a complete torch through all of February on all 4 members. 

[frd]

Great update by @Isotherm

Cortesy 33andrain

 Posted 7 minutes ago

Cross posting from teleconnection thread; dual relevance:

 

Rapid analysis of the status of tropical forcing this afternoon: I continue to believe that alterations remain positive going forward. Westerly wind burst now progged near the dateline courtesy of the eastward propagating tropical wave, and with the MJO low-orbit, likely to continue into phase 7, then halt motion there, we should see an increase in Nino-esque long-wave pattern, theoretically.

 

Tropically induced FT will increase, torques should remain positive, as should AAM consequently, and negative -AAM deposits will continue to increase in the high latitudes.

 

The VPM index diagnosis has proven more reliable than RMM, as has the CHI Z200 analysis. All of these proxies are suggestive of central Pacific forcing near the end of January onward, w/ increased convergence, FT, etc.

 

z200 -- note subsidence emerging over the Maritime Continent by late January:

 

 

 

We recently saw this regarding the MJO : many models hit the putative brick wall, erroneously. A low-orbit signal should progress into phase 7:

 

 

 

Note guidance increasingly redolent of the dateline WWB:

 

 

 

The low amplitude phase 7 MJO z500 composite for February yields a hemispheric structure not too dissimilar from the EPS and GEFS, with fairly robust -AO and -NAO blocking, and an Aleutian low signal. The latter is what we'll see improve as we move forward in my opinion; namely, the predilection for improvements in the PNA domain. The low height signal currently progged in British Columbia should retrograde quickly to the Aleutians, operating under the assumption the tropical forcing behaves as anticipated, which it should.

 

In closing, while models are not detecting any material snowstorm threat yet for the Northeast coast, I don't see sufficient reason to push the "Cancel winter" button at this time.

 

Re discussion of putative post mortem: it's not the magnitude of the El Nino that was a surprise [weak expected]; it's the amount of time spent, and magnitude of, intraseasonal MJO activity in Nina-esque phases, as well as atypical Nino forcing w/ a weak walker cell. The forcing regime resembled NIno at times (early-mid Dec, southern snowstorm; and early/mid Jan, mid atlantic snowstorm). But the Nino forcing simply has not, to date, maintained for sufficiently long enough to provide us a large enough window within which to receive a snowstorm.

 

With the apposite variables coalescing, we'll see how we progress.

 

 

 

 

[snowmagnet]

2 minutes ago, frd said:

Great update by @Isotherm

Cortesy 33andrain

 Posted 7 minutes ago

Cross posting from teleconnection thread; dual relevance:

 

Rapid analysis of the status of tropical forcing this afternoon: I continue to believe that alterations remain positive going forward. Westerly wind burst now progged near the dateline courtesy of the eastward propagating tropical wave, and with the MJO low-orbit, likely to continue into phase 7, then halt motion there, we should see an increase in Nino-esque long-wave pattern, theoretically.

 

Tropically induced FT will increase, torques should remain positive, as should AAM consequently, and negative -AAM deposits will continue to increase in the high latitudes.

 

The VPM index diagnosis has proven more reliable than RMM, as has the CHI Z200 analysis. All of these proxies are suggestive of central Pacific forcing near the end of January onward, w/ increased convergence, FT, etc.

 

z200 -- note subsidence emerging over the Maritime Continent by late January:

 

 

 

We recently saw this regarding the MJO : many models hit the putative brick wall, erroneously. A low-orbit signal should progress into phase 7:

 

 

 

Note guidance increasingly redolent of the dateline WWB:

 

 

 

The low amplitude phase 7 MJO z500 composite for February yields a hemispheric structure not too dissimilar from the EPS and GEFS, with fairly robust -AO and -NAO blocking, and an Aleutian low signal. The latter is what we'll see improve as we move forward in my opinion; namely, the predilection for improvements in the PNA domain. The low height signal currently progged in British Columbia should retrograde quickly to the Aleutians, operating under the assumption the tropical forcing behaves as anticipated, which it should.

 

In closing, while models are not detecting any material snowstorm threat yet for the Northeast coast, I don't see sufficient reason to push the "Cancel winter" button at this time.

 

Re discussion of putative post mortem: it's not the magnitude of the El Nino that was a surprise [weak expected]; it's the amount of time spent, and magnitude of, intraseasonal MJO activity in Nina-esque phases, as well as atypical Nino forcing w/ a weak walker cell. The forcing regime resembled NIno at times (early-mid Dec, southern snowstorm; and early/mid Jan, mid atlantic snowstorm). But the Nino forcing simply has not, to date, maintained for sufficiently long enough to provide us a large enough window within which to receive a snowstorm.

 

With the apposite variables coalescing, we'll see how we progress.

 

 

 

 

This is good news, right? 

[frd]

Just now, snowmagnet said:

This is good news, right? 

Yes it is good news. Seems we get into a better pattern and a more typical Nino like back ground state with blocking where we need it.  

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, snowmagnet said:

This is good news, right? 

He is staying the course. Hopefully he doesn’t go down with the ship!

[luckyamaha]

Yes it is good news. Seems we get into a better pattern and a more typical Nino like back ground state with blocking where we need it.  

Wasn't that the news on November? Let's just jump ship now and look for dec march 2019/2020

Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk

[frd]

1 minute ago, luckyamaha said:

Wasn't that the news on November? Let's just jump ship now and look for dec march 2019/2020

Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk
 

Its Jan 22 nd. 

I am of an open mind and still feel Feb delivers.

We all know the tales of this winter to this point, but to pronouce winter is over is a bit of a bold statement to make on this date.