yoda Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Compare and contrast... 00z at 126 tonight on top to 12z at 138 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 All you need at this point is for more robust cold air intrusion between the weak Friday system and the stronger Sunday-Monday low, and with the track that seems to be emerging, the event could become largely wintry at least from I-95 north. Each model I look at invites a second look with that more robust cold air setting itself in front of the depicted track, which itself would likely be pushed slightly south if that cold air did make its move. Probably about a 30% chance of the event being a significant snowstorm for DC and BAL. Same general idea in play for PHL, NYC and BOS also, the track is only just on the wrong side of them too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 I feel like a broken record... stop writing off storms 3+ days out guys. SERIOUSLY. Models had 1-2” for us last Wednesday for the weekend storm. We’re not even close to being out of the game. Two Rules of thumb... 1) if all of the pieces aren’t on the coastal plain yet, models likely have zero clue what to do with themselves. 2) never discount a storm when there’s still a storm to pass before it. Models need to see what the leading storm does (strength, track, how it effects the jet stream and overall 500 mb look) How often do models underdo the cold shot after a storm passes by? How often do models not pick up the fact that a leading storm has suppressed the flow for a second storm? How often do models depict a high pressure coming in “too late”, just to trend right as we get closer? Tonight’s trends went WILDLY in the right direction. Gfs trended from having 52 and rain to 35 degrees for the same timeframe (6z Sunday) in Baltimore proper. EC went from having a few inches in PA, to dumping a foot plus to the MD/PA border. HUGE improvements and a long way to go. Baltimore and points north still have a 25% chance in my eyes of seeing significant snowfall. More like 15% for DC and points south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 6z will be whacky again. Extremely amped I assume, per usual. I am however intruiged to see if 12z tomorrow continues the trend of moving the western ridge east and less interaction between the jet streams. Ideally, the shortwave never ejects from the southwest and we see another southern slider like last weekend. as bob said, a late partial phase would be ok too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Eps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 I wonder how much volatility the models will show the closer we get to the time period the major change really settles into the mid Atlantic. Could we begin seeing close range changes taking place on the model runs? The article in the Post by Jason yesterday got me thinking about that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 34 minutes ago, Wonderdog said: I wonder how much volatility the models will show the closer we get to the time period the major change really settles into the mid Atlantic. Could we begin seeing close range changes taking place on the model runs? The article in the Post by Jason yesterday got me thinking about that. the 12z runs will be the most important of your life! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Can't wait for today's rip and read sessions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Herb@MAWS Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 While one will takeaway what they wish from the summary, LWX also notes the colder/more SE-ly trend in their Wed. morning discussion: The latest 00z guidance continues to suggest that the low will track closer to the Appalachians as opposed to our south or along the coast. This would put our area on the "warmer" side of the storm, which means that there is a better chance for rain or a wintry mix changing to rain for most areas instead of significant snow. The 00z ensemble fields also show this being the most likely scenario. This scenario seems possible given the the synoptic signals such as the subtropical ridge poking into the southeastern CONUS ahead of this system, and the higher pressures from the Arctic high being over the Plains instead of New England ahead of the storm. Having that been said, despite the 00z guidance still showing the low track closer to the Appalachians, it did shift slightly to the south and east with the track of the low. Also, there is still strong high pressure to our north and northeast as well as to our northwest over the Plains. Given the strong high pressure to the north, it is not completely out of the question that the low tracks farther south, bringing wintry precipitation/snow farther south as well. Some of the individual ensemble members due show this as a possibility, but a majority of them lean toward the other scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 ^ yep. Trend is our friend currently. And please people, do not freak out if today still shows an ice or rain event. As long as it continues to show a flatter solution and less phasing than yesterday, and especially if the western ridge pushes east and the high up north is positioned better in New England instead of the plains, we could still be in the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 3 minutes ago, jayyy said: And please people, do not freak out if today still shows an ice or rain event. Aww that’s no fun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 8 minutes ago, jayyy said: ^ yep. Trend is our friend currently. And please people, do not freak out if today still shows an ice or rain event. As long as it continues to show a flatter solution and less phasing than yesterday, and especially if the western ridge pushes east and the high up north is positioned better in New England instead of the plains, we could still be in the game. ok. I give you my word if it still shows an ice event I will not freak out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mosi76 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 22 minutes ago, jayyy said: And please people, do not freak out if today still shows an ice or rain event. I mean you are familiar with this forum, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 1 minute ago, mosi76 said: I mean you are familiar with this forum, right? Yep. I imagine the mods aren’t trying to make a third post for the same storm due to people jumping off the cliff a few days after most of us received warning level snowfall. I know, not everybody did, but the rate of weenie suicide on this board is asisnine. Love everybody here! We just get a bit.... emotional. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Another 100 mile shift south would be great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 2 minutes ago, jayyy said: Yep. I imagine the mods aren’t trying to make a third post for the same storm due to people jumping off the cliff a few days after most of us received warning level snowfall. I know, not everybody did, but the rate of weenie suicide on this board is asisnine. Love everybody here! We just get a bit.... emotional. we tend to do better when we are expecting rain and pretty much writing off any frozen and then things perhaps turn around a bit closer in. Not so much with a potential good frozen event that s***s the bed as we move closer. I am still sold on mostly rain so any frozen is a gift from above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 3 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Another 100 mile shift south would be great. Still far enough out for that to happen. We need one of those pesky Northern stream vorts over new england.Any time we don't need one there's always one up there lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Who really knows the final outcome for the weekend storm...certainly odds favor rain but.....in weather 4 days out isn't there almost always a but? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 There's some workable low tracks there from southern va. South. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 1 minute ago, Chris78 said: There's some workable low tracks there from southern va. South. Have you seen the AM Euro, hearing a bit better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 I haven't. That's good to hear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 1 minute ago, Chris78 said: I haven't. That's good to hear. Seems trends are good and started late day yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 41 minutes ago, jayyy said: ^ yep. Trend is our friend currently. And please people, do not freak out if today still shows an ice or rain event. As long as it continues to show a flatter solution and less phasing than yesterday, and especially if the western ridge pushes east and the high up north is positioned better in New England instead of the plains, we could still be in the game. I, for one, won't freak out because I have absolutely zero expectations for this. I'm following with an interested, if unexpectant, eye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigBen89 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 6 hours ago, ravensrule said: Dang.... That warm air loves to push up into my back yard.... ugh, can't catch a break... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Just now, mattie g said: I, for one, won't freak out because I have absolutely zero expectations for this. I'm following with an interested, if unexpectant, eye. Same here. I have never had any expectations for my yard with this one. Just been casually tracking it because its a big storm and some pretty cold air will come in on it's heals. That said, I think I might still freak out anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 A weaker low would be great It would still be a moisture bomb. I guess with less phasing a weaker low is possible. Above 1000mb would be nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Early morning NAM to me looks like a huge CAD signature on Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 1 minute ago, losetoa6 said: As is...nice hit for extreme northern Md . A 40-50 mile shift would get Baltimore into wsw Yep the AM Euro will be very useful, still waiting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 50 minutes ago, jayyy said: ^ yep. Trend is our friend currently. And please people, do not freak out if today still shows an ice or rain event. As long as it continues to show a flatter solution and less phasing than yesterday, and especially if the western ridge pushes east and the high up north is positioned better in New England instead of the plains, we could still be in the game. bless your heart Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 In the back of my mind I'm beginning to think Bob is doing the reverse psychology thing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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