mappy Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 26 minutes ago, Snowstorm5921 said: Nothing. There’s nothing that looks favorable. Call me whatever you want but I’ve been posting for days that things look crappy and was told i know nothing. you've made your point. now its time to stop repeating it. and then hope your point pans out, otherwise you will be trolled relentlessly for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 48 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I love how when things look good you do nothing but deb and now that things look pretty crappy you are the merchant of hope! And I totally get that the guidance is unreliable and so there is a chance it’s wrong. That a legit point. But what other than blind hope that the guidance is wrong are you basing this optimism on? What objective evidence says it’s going to work out? Just curious if you have actual evidence things look good or of this is just hope. I have hope but I don’t feel confident when hope is all I’m basing things on. Lol NO evidence...just hope. I hope I didnt waste my time waiting for what was suppose to be our best period. as the Sixers say...you got to trust the process. Nino Februarys are usually good. I think MJO will be in a good phase even though it wont have much impact. Soi will probably go back negative again. I think the NAO blocking as it has been doing in the 2nd half of winter. There is a reason why the climate models all saw good Februarys. And frankly the models have been so wish washy 10-15 thats its hard to trust them no matter what they say. Ive even seen the GFs show purple around Greeland lately. So mostly i am going with hope and a gut feeling because the data as we see it now looks like crap lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 what we really need to see is what we saw in December...those huge ULLS crashing into southern california heading east. With better blocking and colder...those december rainstorms lead to Feb blizzards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 1 hour ago, BristowWx said: I was just going to ask about that. I just am not sure sometimes what I think might be ok ends up not ok. I didn't like that blue over AK. but I thought the Atlantic looked ok Didn't check themo anomolies Until further notice my stance is/has been that the reshuffle is temporary and the 'bad looks' the models are throwing up in the long range may in fact become more muted and not materialize with any significance in real time. I think we do need a bit of a reshuffle. Right now we are stuck in this mode of cutters followed by cold. Still not sure how blocky we get in the NA, but even some relatively short lived episodes will work with a -AO and ofc assuming the Pacific doesn't go full on hostile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 Ok the GEFS took a positive step towards the cfs/weeklies progression. Retrograde the western ridge trough alignment just a bit more and this becomes a good look. I can live with this... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 Just now, psuhoffman said: Ok the GEFS took a positive step towards the cfs/weeklies progression. Retrograde the western ridge trough alignment just a bit more and this becomes a good look. I can live with this... Yeah, and I ninja'd ya. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 5 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Until further notice my stance is the reshuffle is temporary and the 'bad looks' the models are throwing up in the long range may in fact become more muted and not materialize with any significance in real time. I think we need a bit of a reshuffle. Right now we are stuck in this mode of cutters followed by cold. Still not sure how blocky we get in the NA, but even some relatively short lived episodes will work with a -AO and assuming the Pacific doesn't go full on hostile. i know its a garbage model on par with NAM 84 but i cycled through the FV3 and from Jan 25 to end of the run...99% of the time we are below zero at 850. It culminates with this lol. Today has been a good day so far after the bad morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 12 minutes ago, Ji said: i know its a garbage model on par with NAM 84 but i cycled through the FV3 and from Jan 25 to end of the run...99% of the time we are below zero at 850. It culminates with this lol. Today has been a good day so far after the bad morning Two weeks and counting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 5 minutes ago, MD Snow said: Where has that been? And only a week away! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 Yeah. Next week is our chance to score something. At this point looks like the North East has the best chance but like chill always says, give me that look up top and i'll let the chips fall... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 Euro Kuchera gives us 2” and its only a week away! There is hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 Just now, osfan24 said: Where has that been? And only a week away! All the boxes pretty much checked on that h5 panel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 10 minutes ago, MD Snow said: 1 minute ago, C.A.P.E. said: All the boxes pretty much checked on that h5 panel. cool...so as the weeklies said week ago....big PNA and -NAO for next week. Were back on track friends Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 1 minute ago, C.A.P.E. said: All the boxes pretty much checked on that h5 panel. Do we need that trough in the Pacific to move up to Alaska? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 4 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: All the boxes pretty much checked on that h5 panel. Too bad nothing shows up... even SNE gets nothing out of it. N NY and N VT is the place to be on the Euro lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 Just now, Ji said: You get all the credit if your odd positivity wills this winter back our way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 this looks cool on paper but...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 oh boy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 Just now, Ji said: oh boy Only ten days away, right Ji? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 1 minute ago, Ji said: oh boy I am certain that might be snow. Maybe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 Just now, yoda said: Only ten days away, right Ji? we are in the PSU window of new pattern but he bailed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 4 minutes ago, yoda said: Too bad nothing shows up... even SNE gets nothing out of it Yup...but there are a lot of moving parts. I just have hunch that someone along the east coast scores something next week. We've seen hits here and there by various models over the last couple of days. Both GFS/GGEM/EURO jumped on board with a good look up top today. We're at 7 days from that good look. Starting to get that look like of the weeklies. Who knows if it will last but if that look does indeed verify next week someone on the east coast will score something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 5 minutes ago, Ji said: we are in the PSU window of new pattern but he bailed If we're honest, we can't really be sure that the look will verify next week. However, does anyone else think it's hilarious how whenever chill or psu start being deb's we get some serious glimmers of hope? Remember, the first week of January? Snowstorm the next week. Remember this morning? Model's start immediately start showing a better look. This is the year of "weather's just gonna do what weather's gonna do..." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 snow on euro day 10. Looks like southern Mid Atlantic Special but we get in on the action Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 Euro trolling us. Has two snow events in next 10 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 Just now, jaydreb said: Euro trolling us. Has two snow events in next 10 days. Things are moving around a ton right now. We won't know anything about a specific threat for next week until the current storm on Thursday gets out of the way. Friday we should start getting some clarity on the Monday-Friday timeframe next week. At this point though, it looks like we have a window of opportunity. That's all you can as for at a 7-10 day lead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 2 minutes ago, MD Snow said: Things are moving around a ton right now. We won't know anything about a specific threat for next week until the current storm on Thursday gets out of the way. Friday we should start getting some clarity on the Monday-Friday timeframe next week. At this point though, it looks like we have a window of opportunity. That's all you can as for at a 7-10 day lead. Yep. We are about to enter prime climo so if we’re ever going to get something without a perfect setup now is the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 Just 10 days away is a bad pattern to be in as it just keeps rolling forward to the next 10 days away segment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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