January/February Medium/Long Range Disco

[pasnownut]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

I’m very chill. At this moment I’m relaxing in a comfortable chair, drinking my coffee, enjoying a croissant, and preparing to grade midterm exam essays.  I’m not distraught or running around pulling my hair out. But that doesn’t mean I’m going to blow smoke either.  If I don’t like what I see I’m not going to lie and make up BS. If you want that watch a JB video. 

Im not throwing in the towel. Maybe guidance is wrong. But maybe it’s wrong isn’t good analysis and it doesn’t change my statement that I don’t like what I see. It could also be temporary and transition to a better look after. But man if we flood NAM with pac puke again in early February ugh. And that is speculation and not great analysis either. I’m just analyzing what I can see and I don’t like it. 

As for enjoy it...no thanks. I do not enjoy rain or dry cold. I have enough other things to enjoy in life that I can turn too that I don’t need to pretend to enjoy rain. We should be able to discuss bad trends and bad patterns without crazy emotional tantrums. Even in our snowiest winters it’s NOT snowing ~340 of the days in a year.  How do these people survive if their entire emotional stability is tied to it snowing????

Wasnt pointed at you PSU...at all.  I referenced JI jumpers for a reason, and you werent part of it.

Keep up the chase...I'm on your team here.

[pasnownut]

4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I’m very chill. At this moment I’m relaxing in a comfortable chair, drinking my coffee, enjoying a croissant, and preparing to grade midterm exam essays.  I’m not distraught or running around pulling my hair out. But that doesn’t mean I’m going to blow smoke either.  If I don’t like what I see I’m not going to lie and make up BS. If you want that watch a JB video. 

Im not throwing in the towel. Maybe guidance is wrong. But maybe it’s wrong isn’t good analysis and it doesn’t change my statement that I don’t like what I see. It could also be temporary and transition to a better look after. But man if we flood NAM with pac puke again in early February ugh. And that is speculation and not great analysis either. I’m just analyzing what I can see and I don’t like it. 

As for enjoy it...no thanks. I do not enjoy rain or dry cold. I have enough other things to enjoy in life that I can turn too that I don’t need to pretend to enjoy rain. We should be able to discuss bad trends and bad patterns without crazy emotional tantrums. Even in our snowiest winters it’s NOT snowing ~340 of the days in a year.  How do these people survive if their entire emotional stability is tied to it snowing????

#truth

[psuhoffman]

7 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

I'm sorry but the NAO is the new unicorn of weather.

I'll take an -AO and roll em any time.  -NAO has played less and less of a factor in our last few/many years, and is becoming harder to achieve.  What are the reasons/mechanisms behind it...

We can and will snow in less than perfect setups and with other indicies in our favor. 

We need to stop chasing the perfect pattern.  It rarely exists.

How can you say that when the only significant snowy periods the last 3 winters came during our rare periods of NAO help?  Now I will preface this with the fact that the numerical NAO index isnt as important to our snow chances as the actual H5 pattern and blocking.  Sometimes a bootleg NAO block or some weird configuration from something like a Kara Sea block can work just as well.  But why root for some weird convoluted knock off when you could just root for the real thing which when it does happen (rare I know) is more stable anyways.  But the bottom line is, the last 3 winters the only time we got significant snowfall was when we either had a legit -NAO (January 2016, March 2017, March 2018) or some weird bootleg configuration that acted like one (last week).  Actually if you take out 2014 and 2015, the same can generally be said going back all the way to 2008.  In 2009 we suffered until blocking in March helped with the one warning event all winter.  2010...nuf said.  2011 the snow came during blocking.  There was a two year anomaly where we scored a lot of snow absent blocking and I think it skewed perceptions of how we typically get it done around here.  

Keep in mind the AO correlation to snow is true but there is a LOT of correlation between the AO/NAO.  They share domain space.  And often with a -AO the NAO is negative also OR the numerical NAO might not be negative but there is a block up there like a Kara block that acts the same as a -NAO.   That said we can score with just a -AO if it is centered right.  Unfortunately the trend as the NAO gets muted is also to shift the AO blocking to the other side of the pole which is of no help to us.  That is a response to the breakdown of the NAO blocking and where the TPV is centered.  I am analyzing this look right now and I don't see how it really works if we don't get the blocking.  I hope I am wrong!  

[psuhoffman]

17 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

Wasnt pointed at you PSU...at all.  I referenced JI jumpers for a reason, and you werent part of it.

Keep up the chase...I'm on your team here.

Sorry, I wasn't bothered by your post...just wanted to head off any "he is being a deb" stuff before it starts. 

[anotherman]

33 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

#truth

I don't want anything sugarcoated, I was just stating a fact.  My moods are dictated by the commentary here.  I guess that's my problem, haha.

[clskinsfan]

I dont like the AK vortex idea at all. It can work with a strong -nao. But without that nao we are cooked. Cutter city.

[Kevin Reilly]

43 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

I'm sorry but the NAO is the new unicorn of weather.

I'll take an -AO and roll em any time.  -NAO has played less and less of a factor in our last few/many years, and is becoming harder to achieve.  What are the reasons/mechanisms behind it...

We can and will snow in less than perfect setups and with other indicies in our favor. 

We need to stop chasing the perfect pattern.  It rarely exists.

Climate Change I am sure may affect the index the most perhaps. 

[pasnownut]

13 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

How can you say that when the only significant snowy periods the last 3 winters came during our rare periods of NAO help?  Now I will preface this with the fact that the numerical NAO index isnt as important to our snow chances as the actual H5 pattern and blocking.  Sometimes a bootleg NAO block or some weird configuration from something like a Kara Sea block can work just as well.  But why root for some weird convoluted knock off when you could just root for the real thing which when it does happen (rare I know) is more stable anyways.  But the bottom line is, the last 3 winters the only time we got significant snowfall was when we either had a legit -NAO (January 2016, March 2017, March 2018) or some weird bootleg configuration that acted like one (last week).  Actually if you take out 2014 and 2015, the same can generally be said going back all the way to 2008.  In 2009 we suffered until blocking in March helped with the one warning event all winter.  2010...nuf said.  2011 the snow came during blocking.  There was a two year anomaly where we scored a lot of snow absent blocking and I think it skewed perceptions of how we typically get it done around here.  

Keep in mind the AO correlation to snow is true but there is a LOT of correlation between the AO/NAO.  They share domain space.  And often with a -AO the NAO is negative also OR the numerical NAO might not be negative but there is a block up there like a Kara block that acts the same as a -NAO.   That said we can score with just a -AO if it is centered right.  Unfortunately the trend as the NAO gets muted is also to shift the AO blocking to the other side of the pole which is of no help to us.  That is a response to the breakdown of the NAO blocking and where the TPV is centered.  I am analyzing this look right now and I don't see how it really works if we don't get the blocking.  I hope I am wrong!  

My point is not AGAINST the NAO, of course we know when its is real, so is winter around here.  My point is, it has become somewhat/rather illusive, and we can snow without it.  Its a generalization, and you sorta prove my point to a degree, as you spout off all times/events when it has helped (still amazes me btw), but there have been other events/periods when it has been a non entity.  Couple years back we had an epic end sans NAO.  I'm just saying its not X = Y all the time.  There are other ways to get to Y, and the AO has been one of them.  Yes, they share the same domain space, but in the end, and I've said this before, i REALLY dont care how it snows....just that IT SNOWS.  That's just being a true weenie at heart, and not someone in search of the perfect pattern.  Of COURSE we all want that, but odds are no longer largely in favor, and many 1000's of hours/posts have been spent in search thereof.  That's just not my approach with snow, I'm an opportunist.  I dont live in Whistler BC, and I know it (and I know you do as well).

I'll bootleg my way to climo every friggin year for the rest of my life, and die a happy man.  I think the heartbreak is that when a good period pops up on the models, people start doing the snow dance, cause puters never lie (of course the seasoned folk know better), but it leads to much heartbreak.  

Hope you see my perspective.  

[frd]

 

This sums up this pathetic El Nino, which we have discussed how ineffective it has been in delivering a typcial Nino response. Too much warm waters.  Mentioned by others months ago and talked about this in regards to the MJO and the SOI.   

As to why the weeklies are not picking up on this, and the continued favoring of MJO phase 5 is beyond me.     

From Don S. Courtesy 33andrain  

The big problem with the current El Niño event is that the latest weekly data reveal that it never became Central Pacific-based. Instead, it has largely been and remains a weak basin-wide event. The newest data show a Region 1+2 anomaly of +0.9°C vs. a Region 3.4 anomaly of +0.5°. I am currently reviewing the data for weak basin-wide events.

 

My two assumptions going forward are: 1. The current El Niño event has largely peaked for winter 2018-19; 2. The current El Niño event will wind up having been a basin-wide event.

 

 

[Kevin Reilly]

In reality so far what I have learned this year Winter of 2019 is never to trust any model beyond say 4 days anything after is an extreme crap shoot due to the chaotic pattern.  

[psuhoffman]

4 minutes ago, frd said:

 

This sums up this pathetic El Nino, which we have discussed how ineffective it has been in delivering a typcial Nino response. Too much warm waters.  Mentioed by others months ago and talked about this in regards to the MJO and the SOI.   

As to why the weeklies are not picking up on this, and the continued favoring of MJO phase 5 is beyond me.     

From Don S. Courtesy 33andrain  

he big problem with the current El Niño event is that the latest weekly data reveal that it never became Central Pacific-based. Instead, it has largely been and remains a weak basin-wide event. The newest data show a Region 1+2 anomaly of +0.9°C vs. a Region 3.4 anomaly of +0.5°. I am currently reviewing the data for weak basin-wide events.

 

My two assumptions going forward are: 1. The current El Niño event has largely peaked for winter 2018-19; 2. The current El Niño event will wind up having been a basin-wide event.

 

 

It's so weak right now that where it is centered is kind of irrelevant.  When the enso sst was of decent anomalies to matter it was behaving like a modoki.  As it has faded in the last month it has fluxuated...there was a week around New Years where 3.4 warmed and it was central based, then 3.4 collapsed and it looks basin wide again...but all that is moot because the combination of the sst anomalies weakening in general AND the warm waters all around it muting any atmoshpheric response has rendered the impacts lame.  

[pasnownut]

4 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said:

In reality so far what I have learned this year Winter of 2019 is never to trust any model beyond say 4 days anything after is an extreme crap shoot due to the chaotic pattern.  

words never more true....for this year anyway.  lol

hang in there.  We still have lots of time for ''something'' to happen.

[pasnownut]

9 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said:

Climate Change I am sure may affect the index the most perhaps. 

I knew that would pop up and unfortunately there may be an element of truth, as the climo base state continues to change....or can I say evolve....it sounds less dire. lol

[PCT_ATC]

1 hour ago, pasnownut said:

I'm sorry but the NAO is the new unicorn of weather.

I'll take an -AO and roll em any time.  -NAO has played less and less of a factor in our last few/many years, and is becoming harder to achieve.  What are the reasons/mechanisms behind it...

We can and will snow in less than perfect setups and with other indicies in our favor. 

We need to stop chasing the perfect pattern.  It rarely exists.

interesting

[Ji]

im going to the NY thread to troll Donald S. See you guys

[Maestrobjwa]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

We should be able to discuss bad trends and bad patterns without crazy emotional tantrums. Even in our snowiest winters it’s NOT snowing ~340 of the days in a year.  How do these people survive if their entire emotional stability is tied to it snowing????

That's the million dollar question...Why does snow have to be emotional for some? I would love for a psychological opinion on this, lol I have to wonder whether it's misplaced dreaming or anticipation for something "bigger" or more exciting, than the routine...It provides a change to the environment...creating another "world" if you will...And so, if a model shows that it could snow, now you hope for that escape, that newness...and when it doesn't happen, there's a disappointment because you don't get to enter that "world" that time, and have to go on with the hum-drum. I guess eventually, once the season is over and you know meaningful snow is impossible outside of winter, expectations/anticipations get placed elsewhere. It's a strange psychology...but one I would love to have a better handle on!

[pasnownut]

6 minutes ago, Ji said:

im going to the NY thread to troll Donald S. See you guys

that IS funny.  

He is such a talented individual.  Right or wrong, much to learn from him.

 

[adelphi_sky]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

I’m very chill. At this moment I’m relaxing in a comfortable chair, drinking my coffee, enjoying a croissant, and preparing to grade midterm exam essays.  I’m not distraught or running around pulling my hair out. But that doesn’t mean I’m going to blow smoke either.  If I don’t like what I see I’m not going to lie and make up BS. If you want that watch a JB video. 

Im not throwing in the towel. Maybe guidance is wrong. But maybe it’s wrong isn’t good analysis and it doesn’t change my statement that I don’t like what I see. It could also be temporary and transition to a better look after. But man if we flood NAM with pac puke again in early February ugh. And that is speculation and not great analysis either. I’m just analyzing what I can see and I don’t like it. 

As for enjoy it...no thanks. I do not enjoy rain or dry cold. I have enough other things to enjoy in life that I can turn too that I don’t need to pretend to enjoy rain. We should be able to discuss bad trends and bad patterns without crazy emotional tantrums. Even in our snowiest winters it’s NOT snowing ~340 of the days in a year.  How do these people survive if their entire emotional stability is tied to it snowing????

Make an annual forum gathering in Vermont in February during a guaranteed 24"+ snowstorm at a ski resort. Then we can all sit around watching the snow, go on Jebwalks on the snow trails, drink alcohol, etc. 

[Ji]

@psu...saw something interesting from Ian. The analogs of EPS Days 11-15). LOL. #1 is a total crap fest and 2 is historic. Means nobody knows anything or where we are going

 

[psuhoffman]

@C.A.P.E.we might be losing the CFS...  if you look at just the last single run from 0z last night...there are 4 members.  The two that end up looking really good look NOTHING like what the EPS/GEFS/GEPS look like day 15.  They already have extreme nao blocking established by then.  The two that look somewhat similar to the day 15 on all the ensembles last night, one becomes kinda mediocre but it does it by establishing extreme nao blocking soon after.  The other says winter is over and torches us straight to March.  So yea the CFS mean still looks good but the members that create that good look do it by saying "all the other guidance is wrong and the NAO is going to tank next week"  Ok fine...but since that happens within the range of all the other guidance that means taking the CFS over the GEFS/EPS/GEPS and that is a leap too far for me.  

[WxUSAF]

Just now, Ji said:

@psu...saw something interesting from Ian. The analogs of EPS Days 11-15). LOL. #1 is a total crap fest and 2 is historic. Means nobody knows anything or where we are going

 

And #3 is pretty bad but I think #4 is good?

[Ji]

Just now, WxUSAF said:

And #3 is pretty bad but I think #4 is good?

there might of been a warm wet snow 12 inch event feb in 88. Ill have to check but there was a storm dropped a foot of extremely wet snow after reaching mid 50s that afternoon

[Fozz]

Just now, Ji said:

there might of been a warm wet snow 12 inch event feb in 88. Ill have to check but there was a storm dropped a foot of extremely wet snow after reaching mid 50s that afternoon

Wasn't that in Feb 1987?

[mappy]

2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

And #3 is pretty bad but I think #4 is good?

as Ian said on that twitter thread: bad, whoa, bad, bad, bad

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

@psu...saw something interesting from Ian. The analogs of EPS Days 11-15). LOL. #1 is a total crap fest and 2 is historic. Means nobody knows anything or where we are going

 

That is interesting...however just looking at the H5 on the EPS and it has significant specific differences to 2010 that might not impact the hemispheric analog score that much but impacts our snow chances significantly.  Furthermore, the other 4 years on that list were total fails here with no significant snow near those dates.  So overall that is not a good sign imo.  It does  show how close this is to a great pattern with just some minor adjustments...but unfortunately the current look is more like those other 4 years.  

[Ji]

1 minute ago, Fozz said:

Wasn't that in Feb 1987?

yep! sorry. Feb 88 is dismal

[psuhoffman]

3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

And #3 is pretty bad but I think #4 is good?

I would have to look at DC and Baltimore but I know up here only had 2" the whole month of February 88.  1" on the front end of a rainstorm and 1" from a clipper so I don't think so.  

[Ji]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I would have to look at DC and Baltimore but I know up here only had 2" the whole month of February 88.  1" on the front end of a rainstorm and 1" from a clipper so I don't think so.  

this is only notable thing i saw. It sounds like a DC screw job

 

https://www.nytimes.com/1988/02/13/us/major-snowstorm-cuts-path-from-south-to-new-england.html

[CAPE]

15 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

@C.A.P.E.we might be losing the CFS...  if you look at just the last single run from 0z last night...there are 4 members.  The two that end up looking really good look NOTHING like what the EPS/GEFS/GEPS look like day 15.  They already have extreme nao blocking established by then.  The two that look somewhat similar to the day 15 on all the ensembles last night, one becomes kinda mediocre but it does it by establishing extreme nao blocking soon after.  The other says winter is over and torches us straight to March.  So yea the CFS mean still looks good but the members that create that good look do it by saying "all the other guidance is wrong and the NAO is going to tank next week"  Ok fine...but since that happens within the range of all the other guidance that means taking the CFS over the GEFS/EPS/GEPS and that is a leap too far for me.  

I am in "trend" watching mode now. If the recent 'not so good' looks on the ensembles are mostly a function of the current MJO wave, which looks short lived and weaker than the previous one through the bad phases, then things should probably start to look better on LR guidance in a few days. If we see deterioration up top- less NA blocking showing up and the AO starts rising, and/or the PAC goes into full-on hostile mode, maybe we go quickly from red flags to the white one. For now I am leaning optimistic.

[Ji]

6 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

I am in "trend" watching mode now. If the recent 'not so good' looks on the ensembles are mostly a function of the current MJO wave, which looks short lived and weaker than the previous one through the bad phases, then things should probably start to look better on LR guidance in a few days. If we see deterioration up top- less NA blocking showing up and the AO starts rising, and/or the PAC goes into full-on hostile mode, maybe we go quickly from red flags to the white one. For now I am leaning optimistic.

@donsutherland1 has raised the white flag.