Bob Chill Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 @WxUSAF agree. D10 looks really good. D10-15 changed quite a bit from the last few runs. Backed off on the neg nao but at the same time practically dropped the -pna idea completely. Pattern stays amplified with a trough east/ridge west d10-15. Our region is below normal temps through the end. My confidence in lr ens right now is very low but even with low confidence, we look to stay in a pattern that has a shot at something. We're seeing way too much run over run changes to assume anything beyond d10. Not mad at the eps losing the -pna idea though. Tune in later for a brand new lr topic to discuss. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: @WxUSAF agree. D10 looks really good. D10-15 changed quite a bit from the last few runs. Backed off on the neg nao but at the same time practically dropped the -pna idea completely. Pattern stays amplified with a trough east/ridge west d10-15. Our region is below normal temps through the end. My confidence in lr ens right now is very low but even with low confidence, we look to stay in a pattern that has a shot at something. We're seeing way too much run over run changes to assume anything beyond d10. Not mad at the eps losing the -pna idea though. Tune in later for a brand new lr topic to discuss. Lol I'll tell you what, Matt @Deck Pic has a good shot to nail the January temp departure or be close after nailing December. I think he went +2-3F for DC for January. Currently +3.8F at DCA with very cold departures today and tomorrow, but then probably + departures Wed/Thurs before cooling back down for the last several days of the month. Now just need to nail that -3-4F (I think) departure for Feb! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 8 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: @WxUSAF agree. D10 looks really good. D10-15 changed quite a bit from the last few runs. Backed off on the neg nao but at the same time practically dropped the -pna idea completely. Pattern stays amplified with a trough east/ridge west d10-15. Our region is below normal temps through the end. My confidence in lr ens right now is very low but even with low confidence, we look to stay in a pattern that has a shot at something. We're seeing way too much run over run changes to assume anything beyond d10. Not mad at the eps losing the -pna idea though. Tune in later for a brand new lr topic to discuss. Lol Some good with the eps but mostly in the day 7-12 range and that seems to be mostly in the other thread now. Way out I’m a bit disappointed that again it backed off on the NAO but worse it really backed off in the anomalies for the whole AO. Yea it’s not a bad look but it’s mediocre and the bigger worry is that if the trend away from blocking continues and we end up with no significant AO either it could become bad. Your right about volatility right now. Guidance keeps wanting to establish blocking but it’s getting interfered with. Isotherms explanation makes sense regarding the unfavorable tropical forcing but he is clinging to the idea that changes. I’m hopeful but not confident. This is a matter of perspective. Nothing looks awful. But while your within reach of climo with a couple more snows I’m still about 28” away just from hitting average. A mediocre pattern after the total crap one and 2 epic misses on the 2 legit threats for me isn’t going to cut it. I need an epic stretch just to salvage an ok winter by this areas standards. Yea my climo gives me more time but so far this year my climo has been no help. Also if the look hasn’t been great getting an ok one would be better but now it’s kind of a letdown. ETA: this is only in reference to after day 10. I think we have a decent chance with the string of waves trying to amplify into the deep eastern trough between days 7-11. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Some good with the eps but mostly in the day 7-12 range and that seems to be mostly in the other thread now. Way out I’m a bit disappointed that again it backed off on the NAO but worse it really backed off in the anomalies for the whole AO. Yea it’s not a bad look but it’s mediocre and the bigger worry is that if the trend away from blocking continues and we end up with no significant AO either it could become bad. Your right about volatility right now. Guidance keeps wanting to establish blocking but it’s getting interfered with. Isotherms explanation makes sense regarding the unfavorable tropical forcing but he is clinging to the idea that changes. I’m hopeful but not confident. This is a matter of perspective. Nothing looks awful. But while your within reach of climo with a couple more snows I’m still about 28” away just from hitting average. A mediocre pattern after the total crap one and 2 epic misses on the 2 legit threats for me isn’t going to cut it. I need an epic stretch just to salvage an ok winter by this areas standards. Yea my climo gives me more time but so far this year my climo has been no help. Also if the look hasn’t been great getting an ok one would be better but now it’s kind of a letdown. ETA: this is only in reference to after day 10. I think we have a decent chance with the string of waves trying to amplify into the deep eastern trough between days 7-11. thats raise the white flag talk. Yikes. It dosent sound like the 500 pattern will ever live up to billing of the weeklies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 1 minute ago, Ji said: thats raise the white flag talk. Yikes. It dosent sound like the 500 pattern will ever live up to billing of the weeklies The guidance keeps messing up the long range tropical forcing. The weeklies that has great looks also had an mjo that looked nothing like it does now. Interesting to see what it does tonight now that it sees the current soi and mjo spike. But even if it says “just wait another week” do we trust it. Why can’t the mjo just cycle right back into phases that interfere with the pattern like it has all winter? I’m not throwing in any towels. I am admitting uncertainty and frustration. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 The question is what are we really in. This ""nino" is weird to say the least. We have had one qpf bomb after another that have been all rainers with no cold to tap. In December a couple of them took great tracks and we rained. Almost as if this is a super Nino. Now the trend is to get cold, warm up and rain and then get cold. Almost as if it's a nina. There has been resemblance to a modoki nino. I'm not too concerned that the -nao look is pushed back. I think it benefits us better from mid February on anyway. I am concerned the -ao goes badly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 7 minutes ago, Ji said: thats raise the white flag talk. Yikes. It dosent sound like the 500 pattern will ever live up to billing of the weeklies Now is the perfect time for neg ao/nao to build. Ens and ops have been showing it build for 2 weeks but to no avail. Now that the eps backs down it would be totally fitting if it builds in strong over the next 2 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: The guidance keeps messing up the long range tropical forcing. The weeklies that has great looks also had an mjo that looked nothing like it does now. Interesting to see what it does tonight now that it sees the current soi and mjo spike. But even if it says “just wait another week” do we trust it. Why can’t the mjo just cycle right back into phases that interfere with the pattern like it has all winter? I’m not throwing in any towels. I am admitting uncertainty and frustration. @psuhoffman Isotherm made a very good point about this in an update today. He covered many things, and his update was talked about here already, but I copied the part that relates to the MJO and what you just said above. < The Maritime Continent divergence will finally subside by the end of January. This is evinced quite ostensibly on the chi z200 propagation plots, and the easterly negative trades will subside as well, permitting emergence of more classical walker cell forcing. It's not necessary the MJO itself, but overall divergence has been antithetical to proper +AAM transport through the sub-tropics and consequently negative deposits poleward. > Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 31 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: The guidance keeps messing up the long range tropical forcing. The weeklies that has great looks also had an mjo that looked nothing like it does now. Interesting to see what it does tonight now that it sees the current soi and mjo spike. But even if it says “just wait another week” do we trust it. Why can’t the mjo just cycle right back into phases that interfere with the pattern like it has all winter? I’m not throwing in any towels. I am admitting uncertainty and frustration. i have found that long range patterns are often like long range snowstorms...they are seen from afar...they dissapear in the mid range and then all of the sudden...they revert back to what was shown. MJO will be in COD phase 7 by the time Feb rolls around. The last 10 days of January arent ideal MJO wise but pattern will be fairly cold and a chance for snow. Hang in there man! February has been the month everyone is waiting for Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Now is the perfect time for neg ao/nao to build. lol. There is a reason -NAO isn't building. It has to do with Atlantic ocean currents. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 Just now, Ji said: i have found that long range patterns are often like long range snowstorms...they are seen from afar...they dissapear in the mid range and then all of the sudden...they revert back to what was shown. MJO will be in COD phase 7 by the time Feb rolls around. The last 10 days of January arent idea MJO wise but they are still cold and a chance for snow. Hang in there man! February has been the month everyone is waiting for Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 37 minutes ago, Ji said: i have found that long range patterns are often like long range snowstorms...they are seen from afar...they dissapear in the mid range and then all of the sudden...they revert back to what was shown. MJO will be in COD phase 7 by the time Feb rolls around. The last 10 days of January arent idea MJO wise but they are still cold and a chance for snow. Hang in there man! February has been the month everyone is waiting for Voice of reason? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 My analysis. I’m not sure what’s going on with our snow chances. All I know is that I wish my favorite meteorologists here (minus a specific town from PA—aaaachhhhhheeemm) were hanging with me at this beer distribution trade show. Good lord! A mid day Monday afternoon beer storm. I can’t even. Though @Ji would still complain because a 10 day OP doesn’t show his house drowning in New England IPA. Then again....it’s New England. Annnnnnnnnd....someone better cut me the F off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 1 hour ago, HighStakes said: The question is what are we really in. This ""nino" is weird to say the least. We have had one qpf bomb after another that have been all rainers with no cold to tap. In December a couple of them took great tracks and we rained. Almost as if this is a super Nino. Now the trend is to get cold, warm up and rain and then get cold. Almost as if it's a nina. There has been resemblance to a modoki nino. I'm not too concerned that the -nao look is pushed back. I think it benefits us better from mid February on anyway. I am concerned the -ao goes badly. Because it's not really a Nino. Not picking a fight with @psuhoffman because I agree that going into fall, it looked like a modoki type Nino was on the way. But the SST anomalies have been pretty blah the last 2 months and as we know, the general Pac ocean warmth hasn't been efficiently coupled to the atmosphere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: Because it's not really a Nino. Not picking a fight with @psuhoffman because I agree that going into fall, it looked like a modoki type Nino was on the way. But the SST anomalies have been pretty blah the last 2 months and as we know, the general Pac ocean warmth hasn't been efficiently coupled to the atmosphere. Some have pronouced the Nino Dead as of now. The coupling issue has been one that goes back to November. Funny how some ( no one in this forum ) thought the Nino would go to Strong based on sub surface warmth. This Nino want to be needs some Viagra . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 Just now, frd said: Some have pronouced the Nino Dead as of now. The coupling issue has been one that goes back to November. Funny how some ( no one in this forum ) thought the Nino would go to Strong based on sub surface warmth. This Nino want to be needs some Viagra . I think the current forecast is for a Nino to "officially" develop in spring now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 Just now, WxUSAF said: I think the current forecast is for a Nino to "officially" develop in spring now. Yeah, I read some feel despite the current state of the SSTs that we might have a Nino officially declared in the Spring. like you mentioned, but that it could be a 2 year event. Not sure I buy that, but Eric Webb made an interesting post on that possibility about 2 or 3 weeks ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: I think the current forecast is for a Nino to "officially" develop in spring now. I don't think it will matter anymore from a sensible wx standpoint. There are some hints of nino wx on the temp and precip charts for various areas but if you pull h5 composites it doesn't look much like a nino at all. Interestingly the 12z eps showed an aleutian trough building. New development along with the +pna. I'd take my chances with that combo any winter even without a neg ao/nao. I remember looking at this ssta plot in Nov and thinking that outside of the tropics, it really doesn't look like a nino. PDO region looked like a steaming turd. I should have taken it more seriously. No biggie. Wx gon b wx and wx don't give a S about what i think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 Here's the d10-15 h5 mean from the eps. Basically says "what -pna?". This is actually a pretty decent pattern. Still progressive but not bad with ridge/trough placement. EPO injected some HGH. Lol. That thing is a beast man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 11 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: I think the current forecast is for a Nino to "officially" develop in spring now. Yeah that is the official forecast now from NCEP/CPC- at least as of a week ago. And ts down to a 65% chance. Basically we are having a La Nada winter, and it seems the MJO is having its way and mitigating any significant Nino-like atmospheric response. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Here's the d10-15 h5 mean from the eps. Basically says "what -pna?". This is actually a pretty decent pattern. Still progressive but not bad with ridge/trough placement. EPO injected some HGH. Lol. That thing is a beast man. @Bob Chill would that pattern there, if it became reality, produce the oppurtunity for a arctic SW moving SE to amplifying near the coast ? ( I know the further South of us the better ) Would they round the bend and slow ? Or a lack of upstream blocking would inhibit that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Here's the d10-15 h5 mean from the eps. Basically says "what -pna?". This is actually a pretty decent pattern. Still progressive but not bad with ridge/trough placement. EPO injected some HGH. Lol. That thing is a beast man. I made a post early this morning about the 0z EPS. I liked the look towards the end, and 12z, aside from noise, is pretty much the same. Getting some lower heights in the 50-50 region as the TPV stretches, with some decent blocking over the top. The "unfavorable" PAC shift seems like it will be brief/muted. CFS has been suggesting this, and the EPS is now doing the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 2 minutes ago, frd said: @Bob Chill would that pattern there, if it became reality, produce the oppurtunity for a arctic SW moving SE to amplifying near the coast ? ( I know the further South of us the better ) Would they round the bend and slow ? Or a lack of upstream blocking would inhibit that. Anytime there's a trough axis in the east like that it opens the door for a ns shortwave to track underneath. However, verbatim it's a progressive pattern. A well timed transient 50/50 could slow things down and allow amplification. A feature like that won't show on an ens mean though. I'd welcome what the eps showed today but no way in hell will i trust any long range guidance right now. It's as jumpy as an op last few days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 New EPS weeklies look pretty damn good to me. No significant degradation of the EPAC look at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Anytime there's a trough axis in the east like that it opens the door for a ns shortwave to track underneath. However, verbatim it's a progressive pattern. A well timed transient 50/50 could slow things down and allow amplification. A feature like that won't show on an ens mean though. I'd welcome what the eps showed today but no way in hell will i trust any long range guidance right now. It's as jumpy as an op last few days Also of note, as you are aware, is the whatever you want to call it EPO anomaly. I believe it was over the weekend that @SnowGoose69 mentioned if that continues to move up and NE if would warrant concern. But hell, its just conversational because the models are having issues in the short term as is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 2 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: New EPS weeklies look pretty damn good to me. No significant degradation of the EPAC look at all. Agreed. Steadfast with an ideal longwave pattern setting up week 3 and holding right through the end. Fits what the eps did today with dropping any -pna worries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 If you believe the eps and weeklies, our area will be in a non shutout pattern from this weekend until sometime in March. Or april... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 Lolz after I just made a post about the lack of a Nino atmospheric response, the weeklies look very Nino-ish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: If you believe the eps and weeklies, our area will be in a non shutout pattern from this weekend until sometime in March. Or april... Yeah thats pretty much the take away. If you buy it, its a solid 6+ week run of fun and tracking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 Feet of epic pattern incoming! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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