January/February Medium/Long Range Disco

[Ji]

8 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I don't care what any troll or Deb says, this panel says it all. We can't snow without normal to below normal temps are around. Rain can happen in any pattern but snow cannot. By the end of this week I expect a discrete threat to be on the table at a reasonable lead time.

that screams not bitter cold and dry...that is actually what you want to see for storminess. Lets get it done!

[Bob Chill]

6 minutes ago, BlueDXer75 said:

Bob, thanks for all you do.  This is my favorite weather forum and I learn a lot from you and others on here.  Yes, I’m from outside the forum, but feel I’m close enough as well.  Just don’t get this kind of analysis in the Philly forum.  Thanks!

Thanks man. Be careful who you trust here. Some have an agenda and post with extreme bias. Much uncertainty beyond Friday. Ens mean h5 progression is very much in question. However, overnight ens guidance just told everyone that any problems in the Pacific pattern will be short lived or no problem at all. Nice improvement overnight. I'm leaning towards staying on the colder side of things with potential for mixed or all snow events being higher than all rain starting Friday.

Eta: with high uncertainty nobody can accurately say how it's going to go after this weekend. My post is just based on recent trends. Hopefully things clear up this week and confidence can build.

[SnowGoose69]

8 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

One of the sig changes in the EPS regarding monday's possible storm is the number of members with a strong storm at our lat.  Didnt dive into precip types and evolution but there are many sub 980 lows close by...a few sub 970 and even one 956 over NJ. 12z did not have this signal 

The setup on the Op Euro is eerily similar to 1993.  It’s just not as strong of a system but it digs into the Gulf more than a normal storm ever does.  You rarely see places like Greenville or Atlanta near a CCB in a system.  The difference is the setup across the Lakes is poor and there is is more of a WAR than 93 so the system isn’t anywhere close to as cold up the coast 

[BlueDXer75]

Just now, Bob Chill said:

Thanks man. Be careful who you trust here. Some have an agenda and post with extreme bias. Much uncertainty beyond Friday. Ens mean h5 progression is very much in question. However, overnight ens guidance just told everyone that any problems in the Pacific psttern will be short lived or no problem at all. Nice improvement overnight. I'm leaning towards staying on the colder side of things with potential for mixed or all snow events being higher than all rain starting Friday.

I agree with that as well.  Still trying to learn, so thanks for great insight.  People seem to live and die on 7 plus day op runs, that will change 6 hours later.  

[Bob Chill]

6 minutes ago, Ji said:

that screams not bitter cold and dry...that is actually what you want to see for storminess. Lets get it done!

I really liked the overnight ens runs. Not perfect but far from anything that makes me  nervous. Plenty of risk to end up on the warm side of something but also increased odds of a snow event.

Snow output is always suspect but i really like meteos for judging timing, probability, and activity. Eps meteo is eye catching on multiple points. The rain to snow potential on Thurs is low but the eps had previously showed barely anything. 0z shows a little interest. Sun/mon has some good support but very complicated. Wait and see there. Beyond that remains fairly active. Look at the number ens members with more than one accum snow event over the next 15 days. Not too shabby. We can live with this.

[BornAgain13]

27 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I don't care what any troll or Deb says, this panel says it all. We can't snow without normal to below normal temps are around. Rain can happen in any pattern but snow cannot. By the end of this week I expect a discrete threat to be on the table at a reasonable lead time.

@Bob Chill can I see this same temperature map for Dry Fork, VA?

[North Balti Zen]

1 hour ago, Ji said:

we were not tracking a 1-2 inch storm. We were tracking a 3-6 inch storm that became 8-12

For some of you.

[Bob Chill]

4 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

@Bob Chill can I see this same temperature map for Dry Fork, VA?

What's the nearest bigger city?

[Fozz]

3 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

For some of you.

I was just as frustrated as you were, and it sucks to be on the outside looking in, and to see areas not that far away getting 8-12" while we get half of that, but I don't think you need to keep bringing this up over and over again with every casual mention of that storm. I think most people understand that some of us didn't get those amazing totals.

[BornAgain13]

6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

What's the nearest bigger city?

Danville VA. I'm in the middle between the Mid Atlantic and Southeast lol

[North Balti Zen]

4 minutes ago, Fozz said:

I was just as frustrated as you were, and it sucks to be on the outside looking in, and to see areas not that far away getting 8-12" while we get half of that, but I don't think you need to keep bringing this up over and over again with every casual mention of that storm. I think most people understand that some of us didn't get those amazing totals.

Okey dokey. The next eight billion times Ji complains about his foot of snow when we got ****ed, I will wait until 8 billion and 1 to mention it again. You know who is NEVER the ****ing deathband? Baltimore City.

[Ji]

6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

What's the nearest bigger city?

wet spoon

[snowfan]

10 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

Okey dokey. The next eight billion times Ji complains about his foot of snow when we got ****ed, I will wait until 8 billion and 1 to mention it again. You know who is NEVER the ****ing deathband? Baltimore City.

Didn't you get 4-6"? 

[Fozz]

11 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

Okey dokey. The next eight billion times Ji complains about his foot of snow when we got ****ed, I will wait until 8 billion and 1 to mention it again. You know who is NEVER the ****ing deathband? Baltimore City.

And people call him out all the time for his petty complaints. There's a reason why he's known to be a total weenie even though he's very knowledgable. 

[Fozz]

3 minutes ago, snowfan said:

Didn't you get 4-6"? 

Considering the event lasted over 24 hours, 4-6" wasn't so impressive. The second round completely whiffed us.

[Ji]

Just now, Fozz said:

Considering the event lasted over 24 hours, 4-6" wasn't so impressive. The second round completely whiffed us.

i dont even think 8-12 in 30 hours is all that impressive lol. The last few hours were incredible with heavy rates but before that...it was the greatest snowtv storm in DC history

[North Balti Zen]

Just now, Fozz said:

Considering the event lasted over 24 hours, 4-6" wasn't so impressive. The second round completely whiffed us.

Correct.

[mappy]

this place is becoming incredibly tedious 

[Bob Chill]

Just now, mappy said:

this place is becoming incredibly tedious 

Yea, it's a lame bickering and nitpicking thread with occasional analysis. 

[Ji]

1 minute ago, mappy said:

this place is becoming incredibly tedious 

blame the pattern. When there are no threats and everything is 8-15 days away.....there is only so much you can talk about. We need a storm to talk about desperately

[mappy]

1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

Yea, it's a lame bickering and nitpicking thread with occasional analysis. 

 

Just now, Ji said:

blame the pattern. When there are no threats and everything is 8-15 days away.....there is only so much you can talk about. We need a storm to talk about desperately

theres a reason why i don't check in during quiet periods. see you guys when there is a threat to discuss. hopefully some of you can moderate yourselves. 

[CAPE]

I still vote for separating out the medium range 'threats' discussion to another thread, and leave this for LR pattern discussion. Should help with the clutter anyway.

[pasnownut]

50 minutes ago, BlueDXer75 said:

I agree with that as well.  Still trying to learn, so thanks for great insight.  People seem to live and die on 7 plus day op runs, that will change 6 hours later.  

Your a quick study....

Do your best to keep the convo real (even if you aren't sure about something), and you'll be just fine here. As you know, some great talent in here that you can learn lots from.

[pasnownut]

11 minutes ago, Ji said:

blame the pattern. When there are no threats and everything is 8-15 days away.....there is only so much you can talk about. We need a storm to talk about desperately

Or......just shut up until a storm comes about. 

We dont need to hear your "aint gonna snow bullsh!t" every 6 hours.  Most of us already get that.

Take a break....as long as needed.    

 

[T. August]

42 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

For some of you.

Preach it.

[WxUSAF]

Ok, we'll give this a whirl. This is the PATTERN thread.  Shovel pattern to your hearts content.  

[CAPE]

Update by Isotherm on the pattern evolution and specifically the -NAO..

 

[PivotPoint]

Any thoughts on the GFS looking like its losing the -NAO... the last three runs its seemed to have wavered and backed off quite a bit moving into the ned of Jan. The GEFS 6z doesn't seem all that enthused either although it does maintain some blocking up there, but also keeps breaking down the +PNA out west.

It's looking like wet and warm followed by cold and dry as the lower mean heights seem to be passing to our west then cold fronts crash through

Not exactly what we want but also not a complete mess like a raging SE ridge or something of that nature

[BristowWx]

1 minute ago, PivotPoint said:

Any thoughts on the GFS looking like its losing the -NAO... the last three runs its seemed to have wavered and backed off quite a bit moving into the ned of Jan. The GEFS 6z doesn't seem all that enthused either although it does maintain some blocking up there, but also keeps breaking down the +PNA out west.

It's looking like wet and warm followed by cold and dry as the lower mean heights seem to be passing to our west then cold fronts crash through

Not exactly what we want but also not a complete mess like a raging SE ridge or something of that nature

well I think its mostly a myth anyway so no surprise.  its the -AO that I really don't want to see go away or its good night gracie

[frd]

7 minutes ago, PivotPoint said:

Any thoughts on the GFS looking like its losing the -NAO... the last three runs its seemed to have wavered and backed off quite a bit moving into the ned of Jan. The GEFS 6z doesn't seem all that enthused either although it does maintain some blocking up there, but also keeps breaking down the +PNA out west.

It's looking like wet and warm followed by cold and dry as the lower mean heights seem to be passing to our west then cold fronts crash through

Not exactly what we want but also not a complete mess like a raging SE ridge or something of that nature

Impossible, to a degree, to predict the -NAO at long leads with real accuracy. Even the pros can't do it. But, keep in mind the both HM and Isotherm feel that we have oppurtunities to once again achieve a -NAO down the road. Keep in mind I am referring to Feb.  As for wet, warm, followed by cold, dry, as Bob put it so well, we are transitioning to a period where cold is more stable.  Things in the Pac, if they were to derail a little, well that period seems shorter as of the overnight runs. I continue to feel we score this month and in Feb.