Ji Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 Eps looks good. -Ao....decent nao and pretty cold end of run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 2 minutes ago, Ji said: Eps looks good. -Ao....decent nao and pretty cold end of run 9 minutes ago, Ji said: Euro mean snowfall increased to 4-5 in next 10 days Who are you and what did you do to Ji? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorm5921 Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 6z GFS is abysmal. The GEFS also backed way off the day 7/8 threat from 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 Even though I'm missing some frames. I'm sticking with the FV-3! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 EPS snow mean looks much improved for the 28th threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 OP runs seem awfully jumpy....I mean ridiculously so. GFS for example appears to be struggling mighty beyond a few days. Even the ensembles have some jump as well...quickly becoming a look out your window winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 And the first joker who complains about the temps on the OP 6z gfs at 300+ hours should be banned. Its coming so please have the trigger ready Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 Not that I am particularly enthused with the prospects of snow of any substance from the Thursday system because the whole setup is very progressive anafront low I don't think I would rule it out quite yet. We continue to see improvements within the 500s with the shortwave that runs through the region and its influence on the low. Also we are dealing with the formation of the southern low within a broad trough of low pressure in the east. Where this low forms will be key in the timing issues between it and the cold that is moving in. At this point it looks as if the models are keying at 850 mb energy for the initiation of this low and not at 700s or 500s. And when you look at the 850s you see a long stream of energy running through the trough. So there may still be questions as to where that low actually forms and the timing issues with the cold. Since we are talking such a discrete feature we probably would want to put our focus on the higher resolution models (Euro, GFV3) over the GFS and the CMC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 15 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: OP runs seem awfully jumpy....I mean ridiculously so. GFS for example appears to be struggling mighty beyond a few days. Even the ensembles have some jump as well...quickly becoming a look out your window winter At this time I really wouldn't trust anything the ensembles show beyond 7 days seriously let alone the op runs. And for those that continually throw up op runs at mid to long range to try to prove a point are just showing their ignorance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 Not that I am particularly enthused with the prospects of snow of any substance from the Thursday system because the whole setup is very progressive anafront low I don't think I would rule it out quite yet. We continue to see improvements within the 500s with the shortwave that runs through the region and its influence on the low. Also we are dealing with the formation of the southern low within a broad trough of low pressure in the east. Where this low forms will be key in the timing issues between it and the cold that is moving in. At this point it looks as if the models are keying at 850 mb energy for the initiation of this low and not at 700s or 500s. And when you look at the 850s you see a long stream of energy running through the trough. So there may still be questions as to where that low actually forms and the timing issues with the cold. Since we are talking such a discrete feature we probably would want to put our focus on the higher resolution models (Euro, GFV3) over the GFS and the CMC.Thanks for the update. Let me find my umbrella! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 1 minute ago, Ji said: 38 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Not that I am particularly enthused with the prospects of snow of any substance from the Thursday system because the whole setup is very progressive anafront low I don't think I would rule it out quite yet. We continue to see improvements within the 500s with the shortwave that runs through the region and its influence on the low. Also we are dealing with the formation of the southern low within a broad trough of low pressure in the east. Where this low forms will be key in the timing issues between it and the cold that is moving in. At this point it looks as if the models are keying at 850 mb energy for the initiation of this low and not at 700s or 500s. And when you look at the 850s you see a long stream of energy running through the trough. So there may still be questions as to where that low actually forms and the timing issues with the cold. Since we are talking such a discrete feature we probably would want to put our focus on the higher resolution models (Euro, GFV3) over the GFS and the CMC. Thanks for the update. Let me find my umbrella! Thought I would actually post something model related. Hope I didn't disturb your ongoing meltdown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 8 hours ago, Ji said: When you track an event for 6 days for an inch of snow....you have been sucked into the worst hobby ever Look at the inch or 2 we tracked for the 12th-13th? It became 8-12. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 Nice to wake up and have some good reading again. Thanks showme! I'm already looking beyond Thursday and keeping any eye on the changes from run to run of the fv3 for Sunday, particularly the timing of the southern low in the Gulf and the northern one crossing the Great Lakes. The 0z looked better at the surface compared to the 6z, but I think the changes at 6z where the northern low is faster is probably the direction we need to go. I am thinking that if it can get a little faster, we might get enough separation in the two so that the low out of the Gulf can climb the coast. Now tell me how wrong I am! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 1 minute ago, nw baltimore wx said: Nice to wake up and have some good reading again. Thanks showme! I'm already looking beyond Thursday and keeping any eye on the changes from run to run of the fv3 for Sunday, particularly the timing of the southern low in the Gulf and the northern one crossing the Great Lakes. The 0z looked better at the surface compared to the 6z, but I think the changes at 6z where the northern low is faster is probably the direction we need to go. I am thinking that if it can get a little faster, we might get enough separation in the two so that the low out of the Gulf can climb the coast. Now tell me how wrong I am! Next Monday's system has some promise. Want to see a few more runs before I before I start getting invested into it as I still see a lot of question marks. As you mentioned the possible GL low could maybe be an issue. Also want to see what the pv wants to do because it will probably have a say in things as well as it will influence the mid latitude 500s. I did like that the EPS is starting to jump on that period of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 14 minutes ago, snowmagnet said: Look at the inch or 2 we tracked for the 12th-13th? It became 8-12. we were not tracking a 1-2 inch storm. We were tracking a 3-6 inch storm that became 8-12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 2 minutes ago, Ji said: we were not tracking a 1-2 inch storm. We were tracking a 3-6 inch storm that became 8-12 I’m actually not sure what we are tracking right now. Sunday? Thursday? Spring? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 About as broad a swath as you can get. Good to know that the WPC/NWS have flagged Monday as a potential wintry-weather bringer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 I’m actually not sure what we are tracking right now. Sunday? Thursday? Spring?Were tracking noise...I guess the only semi legit threat is late weekend.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 CFS continues to suggest that the shift to a less favorable EPAC will be brief, then the h5 look gets very good again after that through Feb into March. The advertised changes in the PAC once again appear to be mostly related to the MJO pulse, and guidance wants to move it along through phase 5 and 6 quickly at a modest amplitude and then it collapses into the COD. Be interesting to see if the new edition of the EPS weeklies have the same idea as the CFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 Just now, C.A.P.E. said: CFS continues to suggest that the transition to a less favorable EPAC will be brief, and the h5 look continues to look very good again after that through Feb into March. The advertised changes in the PAC once again appear to be mostly related to the MJO pulse, and guidance wants to move it along through phase 5 and 6 quickly at a modest amplitude and then it collapses into the COD. Be interesting to see if the new edition of the EPS weeklies have the same idea as the CFS. Already are seeing signs on the models that the breakdown in the PAC is temporary. To be honest even when it breaks down I don't have any issues because the pv is forcing the mid-latitude wave lengths anyway giving us a pretty good look. Expecting that we see a system or two run through during this period of time. Odds would probably favor the over running/gradient variety type storm and it will come down to where the boundary sets up. At this point trying to nail down any possible windows/systems beyond our day 6/7 system is futile but I would put good money on us at the very least seeing a modest event (2-4", 3-6") day 8-16. Of course if Vegas has proved anything, maybe we are better off betting against me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 if you guys would stop giving Ji the attention he is seeking, this thread would go a lot smoother. edit to add: add mdecoy to that as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 19 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Already are seeing signs on the models that the breakdown in the PAC is temporary. To be honest even when it breaks down I don't have any issues because the pv is forcing the mid-latitude wave lengths anyway giving us a pretty good look. Expecting that we see a system or two run through during this period of time. Odds would probably favor the over running/gradient variety type storm and it will come down to where the boundary sets up. At this point trying to nail down any possible windows/systems beyond our day 6/7 system is futile but I would put good money on us at the very least seeing a modest event (2-4", 3-6") day 8-16. Of course if Vegas has proved anything, maybe we are better off betting against me. Yeah and even with the changes on the PAC side it looks workable. I like how the EPS looks towards D15. The TPV retros, stretches, then sort of splits with lower heights ending up over AK but also results in low heights in a good spot for us near 50/50, and with a little blocking over the top its not a bad look. eta- thats one way to get rid of the persistent +height anomalies in the WA near the maritimes. 50-50 low > 50-50 high Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 3 hours ago, Snowstorm5921 said: 6z GFS is abysmal. The GEFS also backed way off the day 7/8 threat from 0z. For the Philly area, or us down here? Youll need to be more specific. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 26 minutes ago, mappy said: if you guys would stop giving Ji the attention he is seeking, this thread would go a lot smoother. edit to add: add mdecoy to that as well. thanks for the attention! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
09-10 analogy Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 46 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: About as broad a swath as you can get. Good to know that the WPC/NWS have flagged Monday as a potential wintry-weather bringer. That's pretty rare to see WPC's 7-day frozen probabilities down to Valdosta GA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 2 hours ago, leesburg 04 said: OP runs seem awfully jumpy....I mean ridiculously so. GFS for example appears to be struggling mighty beyond a few days. Even the ensembles have some jump as well...quickly becoming a look out your window winter Ensembles are having quite a hard time too. The whole neg pna problem looks less of a problem (shocker) and everything looks decent for snow chances from Fri through the ends of the runs. Eps mean temps are below to much below normal starting Friday. I'm not going to post anything about a specific threat until there is some consistency. Short story is a pretty good temp regime starts Friday and may not let up anytime soon. Longwave pattern is more good than bad. And active flow looks to continue. Eps made a sig jump for the sun-mon timeframe but the setup is so touchy that fine details aren't worth bickering over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 I don't care what any troll or Deb says, this panel says it all. We can't snow without normal to below normal temps are around. Rain can happen in any pattern but snow cannot. By the end of this week I expect a discrete threat to be on the table at a reasonable lead time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueDXer75 Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: I don't care what any troll or Deb says, this panel says it all. We can't snow without normal to below normal temps are around. Rain can happen in any pattern but snow cannot. By the end of this week I expect a discrete threat to be on the table at a reasonable lead time. Bob, thanks for all you do. This is my favorite weather forum and I learn a lot from you and others on here. Yes, I’m from outside the forum, but feel I’m close enough as well. Just don’t get this kind of analysis in the Philly forum. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 One of the sig changes in the EPS regarding monday's possible storm is the number of members with a strong storm at our lat. Didnt dive into precip types and evolution but there are many sub 980 lows close by...a few sub 970 and even one 956 over NJ. 12z did not have this signal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 13 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Didn't see the 6z Fv3 posted for Thursday .Not bad for many areas . I myself would favor the fv3 over the GFS with its higher resolution. That said it is very rare we do well in this type setup when the cold is chasing the precip. Do remember one event when I lived in Owings Mills in the late 70's though where we scored 4-5 inches. Pretty memorable in the fact I was woken up several times by loud claps of thunder late at night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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