January/February Medium/Long Range Disco

[mdhokie]

Yea the temps in the midwest are moderating as well, the KC ice bowl is now looking at mid 20s.

[WeatherQ]

So 12z UKMET, 18z EURO, 00z NAM (extrapolated) and to some extent GFS are showing the plains S/W being more separated from TPV and therefore the SLP is coming way south and not cutting up the spine of the APPs. Is the GooFuS simply overcorrecting?

[psuhoffman]

Ggem is a coastal for the 24th storm now. 

[WEATHER53]

High pressure showing up and in right place. I think the low will pass right over DC and a 20 degree temp spread in 30 miles will occur. As the much colder air charges in lightning is possible with gusty winds and rapidly falling temps. Going to be dynamic. 

[SnowGolfBro]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

Ggem is a coastal for the 24th storm now. 

The model roller coaster is a wild ride right now. 

[MountainGeek]

8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Ggem is a coastal for the 24th storm now. 

PSU -- I was just messing around earlier, but do you think there is something to the GFS bias about the stream interaction vs UKIE? Would be interesting if UKIE was first to catch on to less interaction with TPV and other models are playing catch up on the 20th storm.

OTOH, maybe Chill finally did it with his latest post being sort of down on the next 10 days. That's what we needed....

Paging @Jebman -- we will need a poem or a song in honor of snow on snow on snow in the next 10 days. 

ETA: As DDweatherman noted, we need UKIE to hold steady of course.

[DDweatherman]

Truly will be interesting to see what the UK does now at 0z, as the GFS and GEM have both opened the door for at least prospects of a thump of snow before a change to rain. GFS gets 3-5" for those usual NW suspects, while the GEM sure was close. 

As Ji said, laughable h5 differences from last run. Can the UKIE hold?

[SnowGolfBro]

5 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

Truly will be interesting to see what the UK does now at 0z, as the GFS and GEM have both opened the door for at least prospects of a thump of snow before a change to rain. GFS gets 3-5" for those usual NW suspects, while the GEM sure was close. 

As Ji said, laughable h5 differences from last run. Can the UKIE hold?

Would be great to trend to a front end thump to dry slot to back end frozen as the arctic blast turns the place into frozen tundra

[MD Snow]

Hard to tell exactly from the noaa site but the fv3 appears to be improved as well. 

 

[Maestrobjwa]

16 minutes ago, MountainGeek said:

PSU -- I was just messing around earlier, but do you think there is something to the GFS bias about the stream interaction vs UKIE? Would be interesting if UKIE was first to catch on to less interaction with TPV and other models are playing catch up on the 20th storm.

OTOH, maybe Chill finally did it with his latest post being sort of down on the next 10 days. That's what we needed....

Paging @Jebman -- we will need a poem or a song in honor of snow on snow on snow in the next 10 days. 

There already is one! 

In the bleak midwinter, frosty wind made moan,

Earth stood hard as iron, water like a stone;

Snow had fallen, snow on snow, snow on snow,

In the bleak midwinter, long ago.

[yoda]

2 minutes ago, MD Snow said:

Hard to tell exactly from the noaa site but the fv3 appears to be improved as well. 

 

Just about to post that as well.  Looks like the FV3 also looked better for us... also looked like a brief thump for N MD and those along the Mason-Dixon line

[snjókoma]

Just when the night seems darkest... a glimmer of light appears.

[poolz1]

Cmc joined the party 

That look of the western ridge “falling over “ the top of an ull looks familiar. Not saying this will continue to trend but have seen it more than once this season. Maybe a more progressive ridge can help deflect that lobe of the pv and keep a separation?

[cbmclean]

Just now, snjókoma said:

Just when the night seems darkest... a glimmer of light appears.

Sometimes I think the models team up troll us.  It is so much more satisfying to crush hope when it has been raised.

[yoda]

UKIE at 96 has SLP right near the MS/AL/TN border... at 120 the SLP is in the Gulf of Maine

Doubt we get anything... but need to see where 108 is

[MountainGeek]

5 minutes ago, yoda said:

UKIE at 96 has SLP right near the MS/AL/TN border... at 120 the SLP is in the Gulf of Maine

Doubt we get anything... but need to see where 108 is

Where was the SLP on the previous run at those two timeframes?

[yoda]

7 minutes ago, MountainGeek said:

Where was the SLP on the previous run at those two timeframes?

12z 108 was in C AR... so maybe a 250 mile shift eastward to where 00z at 96 is using mapquest as a guide lol

[DDweatherman]

Just now, yoda said:

Have to wait for weathermodels... meteocentre only goes by 24 hr increments after 72

Just from what I see, the difference in low location when it reaches that part of the country looks pretty similar to 12z just a bit faster maybe? I'd say it could be reasonably similar. Maybe not 18" for PSU but should show some snow if I had to put money on it. Cold air looked to be nosing down with a bit of a wall north. 

[yoda]

Meh... 108 is near SHD... 114 over ACY on the 00z UKIE 

[DDweatherman]

1 minute ago, yoda said:

Meh... 108 is near SHD... 114 over ACY on the 00z UKIE 

What's really interesting is almost unanimously at 0z the models so far have put us back in the game, especially the northern folk. One more trend like that at 12z tomorrow, and there would be real potential. GFS ensembles sound much improved in the New England/NYC forums.

[yoda]

10 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

What's really interesting is almost unanimously at 0z the models so far have put us back in the game, especially the northern folk. One more trend like that at 12z tomorrow, and there would be real potential. GFS ensembles sound much improved in the New England/NYC forums.

Meh on ensembles.  Better than 18z I guess

[Ji]

Meh on ensembles.  Better than 18z I guess

Meh? I counted 8 plus good hits.[mention=9]stormtracker[/mention]

 

[ravensrule]

1 minute ago, yoda said:

Meh on ensembles.  Better than 18z I guess

Those are actually very good for Baltimore and North. Good to see.

[Ji]

Gefs mean low is way south

[MD Snow]

We still have a solid 24hrs for some semi major changes with this thing. 

[MountainGeek]

40 minutes ago, Ji said:

Gefs mean low is way south

This is a good positive step for us -- means we're not out of the game yet.

Watch this thing hit RDU and leave us fringed again by the time it's all over. I'm hoping we see consistent moderate improvement run to run from here on out....too much jumping around and we're going to have to switch Chill back over to glass-half-full mode to get the storm to come back north. 

[Jebman]

1 hour ago, MountainGeek said:

PSU -- I was just messing around earlier, but do you think there is something to the GFS bias about the stream interaction vs UKIE? Would be interesting if UKIE was first to catch on to less interaction with TPV and other models are playing catch up on the 20th storm.

OTOH, maybe Chill finally did it with his latest post being sort of down on the next 10 days. That's what we needed....

Paging @Jebman -- we will need a poem or a song in honor of snow on snow on snow in the next 10 days. 

ETA: As DDweatherman noted, we need UKIE to hold steady of course.

I am horrific at poems lol.

I dont think I have a song that addresses snow on snow on snow, I'll look around, but I think the weather WILL come around for the Mid Atlantic. The models will come around as well.

You're gonna get smashed by snow.

[Maestrobjwa]

7 minutes ago, Jebman said:

I am horrific at poems lol.

I dont think I have a song that addresses snow on snow on snow, I'll look around, but I think the weather WILL come around for the Mid Atlantic. The models will come around as well.

You're gonna get smashed by snow.

See my above post 

[ravensrule]

Euro looks better than 12Z. Shows about 2-3” for here.

[ravensrule]