TJ3 Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: You now we can essentially ban him if we all agree to put him on ignore. Who’s in? I have been trying unsuccessfully to determine how ignore works!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 4 minutes ago, mattie g said: Didn’t we get like 40” from the Euro for this weekend about a week ago? Let’s not do that again. I don't like the setup much at all so you won't see me going all in unless it's real inside of 5 days and even that is too far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 13 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: We wish you would disappear Everyone is piling on this guy, but he made an objective claim: that the -NAO is no longer present on guidance (I assume that he means long range ensembles). Is he correct or not? If I get a chance I will try to check out Tropical Tidbits tonight and see. I for one will be really discouraged if he is correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 Just now, cbmclean said: Everyone is piling on this guy, but he made an objective claim: that the -NAO is no longer present on guidance (I assume that he means long range ensembles). Is he correct or not? If I get a chance I will try to check out Tropical Tidbits tonight and see. I for one will be really discouraged if he is correct. He/she/it is not here in good faith. Post history is 100% antagonistic. Whether it's right or wrong is irrelevent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 32 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: SHUT UP Chuck, er whatever your name is. I approve of this post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 12 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: He/she/it is not here in good faith. Post history is 100% antagonistic. Whether it's right or wrong is irrelevent. Well, you know that I am here in good faith. Just looped through the 12 EPS/GEFS/GEPS all seem to have moderate + anomalies over Greenland at the ends of their respective runs. Not the really stout block we have been looking for for so long. On the plus side, did note that EPS had cold 850 MB temps to the end of its run, from Ellesmere Island to the Yucatan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 GEFS 2m temp anomalies look good for really good days 6 - 10. I see what people are talking about for days 11 - 16 on the GEFS. Hopefully it doesn't verify. But man does Canada look cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 I don't know.. we have 1-2 major arctic shots coming, It's hard to do a pattern change after that, maybe. The El Nino is in a strengthening trend based on subsurface, which favors +PNA. (look at this new +subsurface wave happening) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 I would guess this could trend to a freezing rain event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 9 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: I don't know.. we have 1-2 major arctic shots coming. It's hard to do a pattern change after that, maybe. The El Nino is in a strengthening trend based on subsurface, which favors +PNA. (look at this new +subsurface wave happening) Chuck? Who hacked your account and is posting relevant info? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 35 minutes ago, cbmclean said: Everyone is piling on this guy, but he made an objective claim: that the -NAO is no longer present on guidance (I assume that he means long range ensembles). Is he correct or not? If I get a chance I will try to check out Tropical Tidbits tonight and see. I for one will be really discouraged if he is correct. It depends what time period and run he was referring too. But that’s irrelevant. Some of what he says is accurate. Some is grossly exaggerated. And some is just flat out bullsh!t. But the problem is he isn’t reliable AND he only shows up to say negative things that he knows will annoy people. His posts just clutter up the threads because he has no cred since he would say it looks bad no matter what it actually looks like. Besides people don’t mind hearing bad news as much from a “friend” who gives both good and bad news. No one wants it from the jacka$$ who only shows up when your down to kick dirt in your face. We have plenty of qualified “experts” in our forum who can be trusted to share the bad news. We don’t need his crap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 12 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: It depends what time period and run he was referring too. But that’s irrelevant. Some of what he says is accurate. Some is grossly exaggerated. And some is just flat out bullsh!t. But the problem is he isn’t reliable AND he only shows up to say negative things that he knows will annoy people. His posts just clutter up the threads because he has no cred since he would say it looks bad no matter what it actually looks like. Besides people don’t mind hearing bad news as much from a “friend” who gives both good and bad news. No one wants it from the jacka$$ who only shows up when your down to kick dirt in your face. We have plenty of qualified “experts” in our forum who can be trusted to share the bad news. We don’t need his crap. He has been given polite hints. We all have been there- the noob who doesn't know the protocol. But you listen to the vets' advice and read more/learn/ post less if you are serious about it. Add to it that he is out of our sub region and persists with the shiit posting, and he deserves to get mercilessly dragged. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: It depends what time period and run he was referring too. But that’s irrelevant. Some of what he says is accurate. Some is grossly exaggerated. And some is just flat out bullsh!t. But the problem is he isn’t reliable AND he only shows up to say negative things that he knows will annoy people. His posts just clutter up the threads because he has no cred since he would say it looks bad no matter what it actually looks like. Besides people don’t mind hearing bad news as much from a “friend” who gives both good and bad news. No one wants it from the jacka$$ who only shows up when your down to kick dirt in your face. We have plenty of qualified “experts” in our forum who can be trusted to share the bad news. We don’t need his crap. Your points are reasonable. Based on the fact that he (maybe sexist but for some reason I am assuming that he is male) is still posting here after the feedback that he has received I suspect that he is either 1. A troll. 2. Someone who honestly believes what he is posting and is stubbornly going to keep posting because he feels he is a prophet in the wilderness. 3. Someone who honestly believes in what he is posting and is mostly oblivious to the near universal scorn (could be possible if, for example his mental perception is different than the average person i.e. asperger's etc). If he is a troll, then the constant shutdowns are worse than pointless, because they feed on negativity and cherish knowing that they are getting under your skin. If he feels he is a "prophet" then the scorn probably just feeds his feeling of righteousness. If he is a #3, then he probably isn't even noticing it. To make a long story short: probably best to just ignore instead of negative feedback. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 Now that my brain is thawing...before people get too upset at the -pna, as bob said, this isn’t an unworkable pattern. Look at the gfs h5. Looks like the ensembles. But look at what that looks like at the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 GEFS looks serviceable after 300 but if we lose the higher heights over Greenland it would be less than perfect. My take. PAC doesn’t look like we would want it to look. Way out there so not gonna stress Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 Like I mentioned I don't want it cold in Miami I want it cold enough here with moisture Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 Just now, leesburg 04 said: Like I mentioned I don't want it cold in Miami I want it cold enough here with moisture That’s what it looks like to me. Just cold enough for late Jan early Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 1 hour ago, cbmclean said: Everyone is piling on this guy, but he made an objective claim: that the -NAO is no longer present on guidance (I assume that he means long range ensembles). Is he correct or not? If I get a chance I will try to check out Tropical Tidbits tonight and see. I for one will be really discouraged if he is correct. Problem is that claim isnt true. You cant come in here and defend someone then claim you will look at the maps "tonight and see". I posted a 384 GFS map earlier where the NAO was CLEARLY negative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 Are you serious right now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 4 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: Like I mentioned I don't want it cold in Miami I want it cold enough here with moisture Me too. Ensembles seem to be in a state of flux and will likely continue to move things around. There's enough cold and activity in the flow over the next 10 days to keep us occupied. My take is above average chance at having at least 1 more accum event before Jan is over. I'm not even including the thursday possible flip to snow after rain. Sometime between Friday and the end of Jan will prob figure out a way to get something done. If that happens then Jan was actually pretty good. 3 accum events in any winter month here is a good month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Me too. Ensembles seem to be in a state of flux and will likely continue to move things around. There's enough cold and activity in the flow over the next 10 days to keep us occupied. My take is above average chance at having at least 1 more accum event before Jan is over. I'm not even including the thursday possible flip to snow after rain. Sometime between Friday and the end of Jan will prob figure out a way to get something done. If that happens then Jan was actually pretty good. 3 accum events in any winter month here is a good month. Violently agree lol I think the rain ending as snow midweek is intriguing...I kinda have a good feeling about it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 Just now, leesburg 04 said: Violently agree lol I think the rain ending as snow midweek is intriguing...I kinda have a good feeling about it Downside is surface temps. Mid level cold will outrun the surface so it's going to be pretty soggy if/when it snows it will likely be above freezing. Won't be 10:1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 @JakkelWx HM talking about the lack of a powerful system this week just ended, which was needed and expected to help turn the NAO to negative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 Just now, Bob Chill said: Downside is surface temps. Mid level cold will outrun the surface so it's going to be pretty soggy if/when it snows it will likely be above freezing. Won't be 10:1. I like to look at it this way...if the atmosphere keeps showing us that it knows how to snow then I would prefer that to day after day of nada. Eventually something will pop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 You need this to happen and if that happens you need this other thing to be in perfect position and if somehow that thing is in perfect position you need this index to be at this value.....oh look it's snowing....what a surprise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 18 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Problem is that claim isnt true. You cant come in here and defend someone then claim you will look at the maps "tonight and see". I posted a 384 GFS map earlier where the NAO was CLEARLY negative. I wasn't defending him so much as just trying to get to the bottom of the underlying claim (I have a lot invested emotionally in the -NAO; more than is healthy, which is foolish I know). I missed your previous post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorm5921 Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 10 minutes ago, frd said: @JakkelWx HM talking about the lack of a powerful system this week just ended, which was needed and expected to help turn the NAO to negative. Really good insight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 I think the worst part of what's happened to our pattern is that we are not tracking s storm right now. I am not sure what we we are tracking lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 5 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: I like to look at it this way...if the atmosphere keeps showing us that it knows how to snow then I would prefer that to day after day of nada. Eventually something will pop. Ensembles are pretty active for long leads. Lots of solutions with 2 or more snowfalls. I'm not enthused about big storm chances but all it takes is a fluke. This meteogram is a great visual of that. Once we get past the 25th activity really picks up. Gefs is the same too. If the pna goes negative for a time then sobeit. Canada is still an icebox. As long as we don't get a north american evacuation of cold like we did in Dec then we're in fine shape for chances. Part of me is expecting the neg pna to either not develop at all or be short lived. Even if it does come we still are far from an extended shutout pattern. We're just getting glimpses of early Feb too. Who's to say that Feb doesn't lock into a decent snow pattern? Time will tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 I like to look at it this way...if the atmosphere keeps showing us that it knows how to snow then I would prefer that to day after day of nada. Eventually something will pop. Its snowed once this winter lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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