clskinsfan Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 Just now, Quasievil said: A low parked over eastern WV is not a snow signal, IMO. That's a rain maker. Very depressing long term right now. Hope that changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 One thing that I've seen posted that i strongly disagree with is comparing the pac pattern starting to show up with what happened in Dec. Canada is a massive icebox in early Feb. There is an epo ridge on steroids on the panels. A neg pna is not great and of course we can all agree that a pos pna would be better but even if ens are right, there's a giant pool of cold air lurking close by. Not even in the same universe of the entire continent getting flooded with pac maritime air. Unless that changes too which is entirely possible, it would only take a minor shift to dump copious cold back into the US. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 41 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Eps not enthused with the sun/mon coastal. Favors east/ots for now. 36, 20, 14, 2% of EURO ensembles give DC area >1, 3, 6,12" of snow with the coastal; so while "not enthused" is arguably correct its encouraging that "disagrees" would be incorrect How's that for a convoluted sentence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 Just now, dallen7908 said: 36, 20, 14, 2% of EURO ensembles give DC area >1, 3, 6,12" of snow with the coastal; so while "not enthused" is arguably correct its encouraging that "disagrees" would be incorrect How's that for a convoluted sentence. Honestly I have no idea what you’re talking about. LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 3 hours ago, Bob Chill said: If the last couple weeks and the 2 weeks in front of us have taught us anything... No pattern has legs. Good or bad. So even if the trough digs west, are we really that sure it's going to stay that way for weeks on end? I'll take the way under if the neg pna develops in the first place. 100% agree. All models I’ve seen have at worst a transient trough and most keep reloading higher heights near or in the NAO domain. If we can just hang on for a bit my hunch is we get that split flow to come back at some point and then Ji is in business Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 2 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said: Honestly I have no idea what you’re talking about. LOL. All I'm saying is that there's a chance with a discrete threat only a week plus a few hours away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 1 hour ago, Ji said: So it looks like no 1985 cold. I'll take my chances with less cold and more storms even if one is a mix. Dry and bitter is worst outcome PSU will be bummed. He loved 1985. Just ask him about it sometime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 37 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Yes. I suggested this earlier. A winter LR thread for tracking patterns, and a medium range thread for tracking threats. Agreed! It might help to mitigate the meltdowns if we were looking at more specific threats in the medium range while keeping this thread for long term patterns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 Some thoughts from HM., He seems to think there is a renewed threat for a winter storm when the baroclinic zone reaches the East Coast later this week, ( after the mid-week storm ) . ore Replying to @antmasiello So after this midweek storm, the East Coast will be in threat zone as we move towards Feb? Anthony Masiello @antmasiello 54m54 minutes ago re The baroclinic zone will reach the East Coast by the end of the week, and that's when a renewed threat for a winter storm will happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 2 hours ago, Bob Chill said: The fact that Ji is depressed after potentially getting another warning level event is strange. It's not like he made a public forecast for a huge snow winter or anything... wait a minute... Your observation is uncanny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 6 minutes ago, frd said: Some thoughts from HM., He seems to think there is a renewed threat for a winter storm when the baroclinic zone reaches the East Coast later this week, ( after the mid-week storm ) . ore Replying to @antmasiello So after this midweek storm, the East Coast will be in threat zone as we move towards Feb? Anthony Masiello @antmasiello 54m54 minutes ago re The baroclinic zone will reach the East Coast by the end of the week, and that's when a renewed threat for a winter storm will happen. Good lord. Sometimes reading HM makes me wish I went to Yale and not WVU. Sips beer.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 Interestingly... the GEPS moved away from the -pna idea in early Feb. It had been showing a similar look that the gefs/eps are showing but not at 12z today. Considering ens haven't showed a lot of skill with moving longwave features around in the d10+ range pretty much all winter, it would be counterintuitive to immediately jump on what the ens are showing now. Won't surprise me at all if ens completely drop or continuously delay the pac degradation. I'm not going to get hung up on it until it breaks into d10 or under range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 7 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: A lot of moisture- qpf per Gfs for Thursday system. Juiced for sure and it's been showing rain to snow for several runs. I'll enjoy tracking this threat . I can easily see this becoming a rain to snow transition to a 2-4" type wet paste Job with subtle changes Then waiting in the wings is vodka best served frozen. 480dM. That’s thick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 GFS way out to sea next Monday unfortunately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 3 minutes ago, jaydreb said: GFS way out to sea next Monday unfortunately. Definitely take the GFS verbatim 9 days out. And put some @showmethesnow Vegas money on it. Whoops. Yeah. No. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 Even colder vodka coming down after 200 hrs. 468dM. Impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 4 minutes ago, Scraff said: Definitely take the GFS verbatim 9 days out. And put some @showmethesnow Vegas money on it. Whoops. Yeah. No. A good exercise on TT with ops is once you get beyond 5-7 days, click the previous run button 8-10 times then assess how accurate you think it is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 From DT , Eh, DT sounds not too excited , he states everything needs to come together perfectly for the Jan 28 th one as of this time. Also seems the NAO goes positive near the 27 th and 28 th and wave spacing is an issue too. one system after another messes up the PNA WHATS NEXT - JAN 28? WXRISK.COM·SUNDAY, JANUARY 20, 2019 In summary it is far too early to get excited about the big snowstorm showing up in the 12Z midday Sunday European model. The solution is viable in that it does not appear to be absurd but several things have to happen in order for this track to develop exactly as the models showing. The lack of the -NAO / Greenland block in the Teleconnections over North America is a problem and it's one reasons why these last systems came in land and why the one on January 24 will also may take an inland track. It is quite possible that the big system on January 28 may also come inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorm5921 Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 -NAO has all but disappeared on guidance today. Nothing but a fantasy anymore...never verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 2 minutes ago, Snowstorm5921 said: -NAO has all but disappeared on guidance today. Nothing but a fantasy anymore...never verifies. SHUT UP Chuck, er whatever your name is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 6 minutes ago, Snowstorm5921 said: -NAO has all but disappeared on guidance today. Nothing but a fantasy anymore...never verifies. Our area (the one you don't live in and should leave and never come back to) correlates snowfall with a -AO. Our are got good snowfall in Nov and last weekend when the AO dipped. How did your area do? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 5 minutes ago, Snowstorm5921 said: -NAO has all but disappeared on guidance today. Nothing but a fantasy anymore...never verifies. We wish you would disappear Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 1 hour ago, losetoa6 said: Nam insistent on showing some decent cad on Wed . It's been showing light mixed frozen acc in the favored areas . I'm inclined to believe it . I'm expecting other models to pick up on this inside 48 hours. Now...by no means Is this more then a nuisance event but frozen is frozen and lets keep the train going . I posted a similar map from the GFS yesterday. The CAD is being under modeled IMO. This is a real arctic airmass compared to last weeks sudo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 You know we can essentially ban him if we all agree to put him on ignore. Who’s in? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 Doesnt he have +NAO shoveling to do? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 11 minutes ago, Snowstorm5921 said: -NAO has all but disappeared on guidance today. Nothing but a fantasy anymore...never verifies. Are you like an alternate account of Chuck's or something? Welcome to my ignore list. One more thing: Chuck up, shut. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 4 hours ago, Bob Chill said: Euro is a nice hit but razor thin path to succes in how it got there Didn’t we get like 40” from the Euro for this weekend about a week ago? Let’s not do that again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: You now we can essentially ban him if we all agree to put him on ignore. Who’s in? Done Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncjoaquin Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 16 minutes ago, Snowstorm5921 said: -NAO has all but disappeared on guidance today. Nothing but a fantasy anymore...never verifies. I just read this forum for information, and even I wish you would go away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: We wish you would disappear I think the time has come to stop feeding the troll. Just make him feel hell-banned. Don't acknowledge that interloper. @WxUSAF @stormtracker, please also do something about him. 5-post, weenie tag, or just block him from our subforum. In any case, I'm still interested in the late-week storm. A nice change to snow with heavy rates would be a lot of fun to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.