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January/February Medium/Long Range Disco


nj2va

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38 minutes ago, PivotPoint said:

Lol

Got all our bases covered on that one 

Believe it or not, i don't really enjoy talking about d15 or monthly stuff. My favorite thing to discuss by a huge margin is a discrete threat. Unfortunately living in this region isn't very forgiving with the number of discrete threats in a season so by default I'm forced to talk about fantasyland. My instincts are telling me at least one discrete threat will materialize not too far in the future. Can't happen soon enough

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13 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

If it comes back will you promise to leave and never come back? Better yet, no matter what happens you should stop visiting subs you don't live in and never come back. You make me want it to rain meteors in PA and that's not fair to all the good hearted people in your region.

Raining meteors would be fantastic given the boredom since November.  Appreciate it!

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1 minute ago, Snowstorm5921 said:

It basically ends winter.  No -NAO to speak of.  Hopefully the ensembles sing a different tune!

 

3 minutes ago, Snowstorm5921 said:

GFS flips the pac to garbage by day 12 just in time for another Rainer.  Damn MJO.

Lol! Are you sure you’re looking at the right model? I see three potential snow events and wall to wall cold on the 12z GFS. 

ETA: guess he’s just trolling pretty hard

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Just now, Snowstorm5921 said:

It basically ends winter.  No -NAO to speak of.  Hopefully the ensembles sing a different tune!

An Op run? Cmon dude you are really getting on everyone’s nerves.  You got people looking for the ignore feature like it’s the last beer on earth.

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38 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Believe it or not, i don't really enjoy talking about d15 or monthly stuff. My favorite thing to discuss by a huge margin is a discrete threat. Unfortunately living in this region isn't very forgiving with the number of discrete threats in a season so by default I'm forced to talk about fantasyland. My instincts are telling me at least one discrete threat will materialize not too far in the future. Can't happen soon enough

I agree. I learned a couple years back that talking long range is like tossing a dart blindfolded... after being spun around 6 times... drunk. You’ll get about the same accuracy as the big boy predictions

I don’t think we get shut out next two weeks but the Pac jet gearing back up could spell trouble if the NAO flips neutral to positive

Im hoping for some ridging to get back in the right spot out west then we can use a little luck with a decent Atlantic and score something big, small, either is fine by me 

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12 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Anyone have the Ukie? Meteocentre is delayed 

Looks better than 00z imo.  Maybe someone with better Ukie maps could chime in.  Basically the slp travels from upstate SC  to VA Beach.  Further SE than 00z.  Precip maps look pretty good also for this time period.  I just dont know for sure about P types.

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Just now, PivotPoint said:

I agree. I learned a couple years back that talking long range is like tossing a dart blindfolded... after being spun around 6 times... drunk. You’ll get about the same accuracy as the big boy predictions

I don’t think we get shut out next two weeks but the Pac jet gearing back up could spell trouble if the NAO flips neutral to positive

Im hoping for some riding to get back in the right spot out west then we can use a little luck with a decent Atlantic and score something big, small, either is fine by me 

If the last couple weeks and the 2 weeks in front of us have taught us anything... No pattern has legs. Good or bad. So even if the trough digs west, are we really that sure it's going to stay that way for weeks on end? I'll take the way under if the neg pna develops in the first place. 

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2 minutes ago, PivotPoint said:

I agree. I learned a couple years back that talking long range is like tossing a dart blindfolded... after being spun around 6 times... drunk. You’ll get about the same accuracy as the big boy predictions

I don’t think we get shut out next two weeks but the Pac jet gearing back up could spell trouble if the NAO flips neutral to positive

Im hoping for some ridging to get back in the right spot out west then we can use a little luck with a decent Atlantic and score something big, small, either is fine by me 

Models doing the Bird Box Challenge?

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6 minutes ago, Ji said:

I just want a hecs...one simple slow moving Miller A. Basically a cold version of every storm we have had this winter

We have 6 weeks before the calendar starts doing the dirtywork. Right now i only care about the rest of Jan. Getting totally blanked seems unlikely to me. 

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Just now, Bob Chill said:

We have 6 weeks before the calendar starts doing the dirtywork. Right now i only care about the rest of Jan. Getting totally blanked seems unlikely to me. 

Seriously...I think Ji ends January over 20" on the year with 15 of that coming in January. Solid to above solid winter. And I bet march delivers his slow mover... 4" of qpf at 4:1 ratios

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Just now, Bob Chill said:

Gefs looks pretty good Sun/Mon. Member solutions are encouraging as well.

gfs-ens_mslpa_us_32.png

But that loser from PA already said winter is cancelled, so it’s impossible. 

In all seriousness this looks like our next window and it should be more than cold enough.  Nice to see the GEFS develops a low much further south than the op. 

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Just now, WxUSAF said:

Would people prefer two threads? One for only storms and one for pattern? Other options?

One thread should be more than enough but it requires critical thinking and modest levels of maturity. So what I'm really saying is we need 15 garbage threads and one intelligent one.

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Just now, Bob Chill said:

One thread should be more than enough but it requires critical thinking and modest levels of maturity. So what I'm really saying is we need 15 garbage threads and one intelligent one.

We could go back to removing lots of crap posts that upsets people just as much.

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