January/February Medium/Long Range Disco

[frd]

What's up with the double posting, thats strange. 

Never said winter is over, but something is up, and has been up, that is causing the Pac to crap the bed.  This is not the first time this winter it has happened.  

I know about the MJO decaying into the COD, and all that stuff, but we get these reshuffles and then when you think everything is all lined up, things go downhill yet again.   

I imagine everyone has thier own reasons on the causes.

Everyday I read great updates and posts from respected weather pros and experts that indicate things should align better to promote a +PNA -AO and a -NAO but then I look at the EPS hour 360 and see that the Pac does not look good.    

Maybe more time is needed.

[SnowGoose69]

17 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Not an awful look, but if that is the direction things are headed in the PAC, we are going to want stronger blocking than the EPS has been advertising.

If that block pinches off and retrogrades to Siberia say goodbye.  That’s what killed 11-12 right around this time as well.  We finally got something briefly on the west coast and then it turned more into just a blocking high up over AK, pinched off and retrograded and it was over 

[osfan24]

4 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

it's all relative I think...  It's not a KU pattern like we all wanted for weeks on end but it's a pretty good pattern and a KU is far from being out of the question.  Both gefs and eps suggesting some ridging across the south....but look at the low level arctic air that is still pressing....same panel that CAPE just posted.  And by this time the MJO should be all but dead again.

 

Right, but again, we are talking 15 days out. That's the problem. Nothing is really moving forward in time. And then on the rare occasion that it does, poof, it suddenly disappears.

Pushing the pattern back a week from January 20 was fine. Gives us basically a month and a half of winter to work with. But now we seem like we might be pushing into the first week of February still without a great pattern.

[frd]

1 minute ago, C.A.P.E. said:

We don't need perfection or anything close for it to snow over the next few weeks. Yeah those epic looks were pretty on paper, but they very rarely ever materialize as depicted. The one feature I am watching carefully now is the NAO. I don't buy the monster block looks the GFS/GEFS throws up at range. It has a propensity to do that and often times nothing even close materializes. It would be nice to see the EPS going a little more gung-ho with a strong west-based block.

I quest for answers I guess, because at times its frustrating not to know the why behind the causes. But, weather is science and this hobby has its ups and downs like all things.

Really thought and to a degree still feel we may get the epic look on one of the weeklies run to actually happen in real time. 

[poolz1]

Just now, osfan24 said:

Right, but again, we are talking 15 days out. That's the problem. Nothing is really moving forward in time. And then on the rare occasion that it does, poor, it suddenly disappears.

Pushing the pattern back a week from January 20 was fine. Gives us basically a month and a half of winter to work with. But now we seem like we might be pushing into the first week of February still without a great pattern.

Did you glance at either the gefs or the eps?  Starting today...the entire run is cold.  

[Inthepines]

Some interesting analogs showing up finally in the super ensemble.

[jaydreb]

3 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

Right, but again, we are talking 15 days out. That's the problem. Nothing is really moving forward in time. And then on the rare occasion that it does, poof, it suddenly disappears.

Pushing the pattern back a week from January 20 was fine. Gives us basically a month and a half of winter to work with. But now we seem like we might be pushing into the first week of February still without a great pattern.

Looks OK, no?

 

[frd]

6 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

f that block pinches off and retrogrades to Siberia say goodbye.  That’s what killed 11-12 right around this time as well.  We finally got something briefly on the west coast and then it turned more into just a blocking high up over AK, pinched off and retrograded and it was over 

The other thing, is what you bring up here. The orientation and location of the HL blocking has changed as well.  

[Bob Chill]

1 hour ago, leesburg 04 said:

Is it fair to say that look could change back as quickly as it eroded?

Yep and it's fair to say that we get could get a decent event next weekend or the week after. 

[frd]

 

A few days ago the MJO was decaying in the COD,  and or decaying and somewhat moving along,  this indicates it stays near 5 and 6 and does not really get in the COD. ( close but not in the COD ) 

This is likely the reason for the look out West and even the HL.  

The MJO seems to be the link this year, and it is overriding other factors, or if you dont believe that it is at the least interfering with the deveopment  of a favorable look out West and a +PNA, etc. Adomino effect if you will. 

Seems the SSWE is rinsed out, so wonder if the issue with the MJO, and the favoring of bad phases for us,  is a function of SST profiles out there in the far West Pacific, or a lack of a focused center of higher anomalies versus a large area of warmer waters. If you figure this out, you can figure out Feb and March IMHO.  

 

[SnowGoose69]

2 minutes ago, frd said:

 

A few days ago the MJO was decaying in the COD,  and or decaying and somewhat moving along,  this indicates it stays near 5 and 6 and does not really get in the COD. ( close but not in the COD ) 

This is likely the reason for the look out West and even the HL.  

The MJO seems to be the link this year, and it is overriding other factors, or if you dont believe that it is at the least interfering with the deveopment  of a favorable look out West and a +PNA, etc. Adomino effect if you will. 

Seems the SSWE is rinsed out, so wonder if the issue with the MJO, and the favoring of bad phases for us,  is a function of SST profiles out there in the far West Pacific, or a lack of a focused center of higher anomalies versus a largwe area of warmer waters. If you figure this out, you can figure out Feb and March IMHO.  

 

The sickest part of that is we broke the record for longest stretch in phase 5 last month.  That would potentially rebreak it if it verified 

[CAPE]

2 minutes ago, frd said:

 

A few days ago the MJO was decaying in the COD,  and or decaying and somewhat moving along,  this indicates it stays near 5 and 6 and does not really get in the COD. ( close but not in the COD ) 

This is likely the reason for the look out West and even the HL.  

The MJO seems to be the link this year, and it is overriding other factors, or if you dont believe that it is at the least interfering with the deveopment  of a favorable look out West and a +PNA, etc. Adomino effect if you will. 

Seems the SSWE is rinsed out, so wonder if the issue with the MJO, and the favoring of bad phases for us,  is a function of SST profiles out there in the far West Pacific, or a lack of a focused center of higher anomalies versus a large area of warmer waters. If you figure this out, you can figure out Feb and March IMHO.  

 

I would focus on whats in front of us. Its going to get pretty darn cold, and remain pretty active. Multiple chances over the next 10 days or so. 

[Bob Chill]

Just now, C.A.P.E. said:

I would focus on whats in front of us. Its going to get pretty darn cold, and remain pretty active. Multiple chances over the next 10 days or so. 

That's where I'm at. I only focus on 2 week leads when we are in a shutout pattern. Won't be the case later this week.

If the pac craps it craps. Maybe it doesn't crap. Or maybe it craps then wipes its ass shortly after and things are great again. Maybe we get 2 snow events before it's even a concern. Maybe the pac craps and we get a big fluke anyways. Or maybe winter is over on Feb 3rd. 

[frd]

4 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The sickest part of that is we broke the record for longest stretch in phase 5 last month.  That would potentially rebreak it if it verified 

That would be a real bummer,  yet I read from one private MET that stated the SST profile around Aussie favored mostly the cold phases this year for us in the East. 

The opposite has happened so far.

Tip brought up the idea of a lack of gradient theory , I guess so much warmer waters out there, not sure that fits the issue at hand though with the MJO. 

I think he was referring maybe to the fast and powerful Pac Jet. How it was breaking down West Coast ridging.

[CAPE]

Just now, Bob Chill said:

That's where I'm at. I only focus on 2 week leads when we are in a shutout pattern. Won't be the case later this week.

If the pac craps it craps. Maybe it doesn't crap. Or maybe it craps then wipes its ass shortly after and things are great again. Maybe we get 2 snow events before it's even a concern. Maybe the pac craps and we get a big fluke anyways. Or maybe winter is over on Feb 3rd. 

Maybe we need a medium range thread for discussing potential threats and a general long range winter discussion thread for pattern chasing. Having everything in this thread has caused it to become a clusterf*ck lately.

[PivotPoint]

7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

That's where I'm at. I only focus on 2 week leads when we are in a shutout pattern. Won't be the case later this week.

If the pac craps it craps. Maybe it doesn't crap. Or maybe it craps then wipes its ass shortly after and things are great again. Maybe we get 2 snow events before it's even a concern. Maybe the pac craps and we get a big fluke anyways. Or maybe winter is over on Feb 3rd. 

Lol

Got all our bases covered on that one 

[SnowGoose69]

8 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

That's where I'm at. I only focus on 2 week leads when we are in a shutout pattern. Won't be the case later this week.

If the pac craps it craps. Maybe it doesn't crap. Or maybe it craps then wipes its ass shortly after and things are great again. Maybe we get 2 snow events before it's even a concern. Maybe the pac craps and we get a big fluke anyways. Or maybe winter is over on Feb 3rd. 

We probably don’t go into anything close to December and early January anytime soon but we may go into a 1994 ordeal if those ideas beyond day 10-12 on the ensembles are correct where the AO is negative, NAO is positive and then you need to hope the EPO cooperates.  If it doesn’t then the -AO is more or less useless 

[psuhoffman]

2 hours ago, showmethesnow said:

 

Your post was good but was it so good you had to post it twice? 

Connection issues up here. Sleet did make it to Killington. Got 14” first though. Hopefully it flips back soon. Pellets in the face is no fun. 

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Not an awful look, but if that is the direction things are headed in the PAC, we are going to want stronger blocking than the EPS has been advertising.

Ok that isn’t awful and it can work but...if you totally flipped those colors around that would be a pretty good looking pattern too and that’s not a good thing. 

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

Ok that isn’t awful and it can work but...if you totally flipped those colors around that would be a pretty good looking pattern too and that’s not a good thing. 

Hopefully its just a couple bad chili runs for the ensembles and not a trend. 

[PivotPoint]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

Ok that isn’t awful and it can work but...if you totally flipped those colors around that would be a pretty good looking pattern too and that’s not a good thing. 

Minus what looks like a fairly fast flow from the PAC, there’s some miller b potential there as it looks like we have a gradient that goes right above us, correct? West to east storm track

[BristowWx]

15 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

That's where I'm at. I only focus on 2 week leads when we are in a shutout pattern. Won't be the case later this week.

If the pac craps it craps. Maybe it doesn't crap. Or maybe it craps then wipes its ass shortly after and things are great again. Maybe we get 2 snow events before it's even a concern. Maybe the pac craps and we get a big fluke anyways. Or maybe winter is over on Feb 3rd. 

All of those scenarios have happened before and at least 8 others not mentioned so it’s a crap chute as to what happens. 

[yoda]

12z ICON looks a lil intriguing at the very end of its run h5-wise 

[psuhoffman]

5 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Hopefully its just a couple bad chili runs for the ensembles and not a trend. 

Don’t know.  But put me in the camp that thinks this is tropical forcing related. Every time that looks cooperative we get epic looking model runs. Then when that looks worse suddenly the pattern degrades. Seems an obvious link. 

Let me be clear the look isn’t a shutout and with cold around it likely will snow some even in that pattern but it’s a matter of expectations. That look is not what the analogs suggested and I’m not one that claims victory through the back door. If that is the actual pattern I busted. I don’t care if we get 50” that isn’t what I predicted. 

[BristowWx]

5 minutes ago, yoda said:

12z ICON looks a lil intriguing at the very end of its run h5-wise 

That looks like the seed being planted for a Miller A.  And in the right spot around NO.  Something to stick a pin on I suppose. 

[frd]

24 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Maybe we need a medium range thread for discussing potential threats and a general long range winter discussion thread for pattern chasing. Having everything in this thread has caused it to become a clusterf*ck lately.

Maybe we need a banter longrange thread. The long range and dicussing the pattern go hand in hand, to me at least.   

Discussing what is causing things to happen is part of learning and exchanging ideas. Those ideas help generate thoughts about the weather pattern in the long range.   I feel as long as you don't complain you are good, because that deserves to be put in banter. 

[CAPE]

7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Don’t know.  But put me in the camp that thinks this is tropical forcing related. Every time that looks cooperative we get epic looking model runs. Then when that looks worse suddenly the pattern degrades. Seems an obvious link. 

Let me be clear the look isn’t a shutout and with cold around it likely will snow some even in that pattern but it’s a matter of expectations. That look is not what the analogs suggested and I’m not one that claims victory through the back door. If that is the actual pattern I busted. I don’t care if we get 50” that isn’t what I predicted. 

I suppose there must be something to that. MJO is effing up Nino mojo.

As of a week ago, technically ENSO is still neutral, with now a 65% chance of an El Nino developing into Spring. Probably unlikely we would be seeing h5 panels like the one I posted for early Feb in a legit Nino.

[Snowstorm5921]

Both the GFS and CMC lost the day 8 event.  Not surprising since the Pac look has degraded significantly.

[Bob Chill]

6 minutes ago, Snowstorm5921 said:

Both the GFS and CMC lost the day 8 event.  Not surprising since the Pac look has degraded significantly.

If it comes back will you promise to leave and never come back? Better yet, no matter what happens you should stop visiting subs you don't live in and never come back. You make me want it to rain meteors in PA and that's not fair to all the good hearted people in your region.

[BlueDXer75]

4 minutes ago, Snowstorm5921 said:

Both the GFS and CMC lost the day 8 event.  Not surprising since the Pac look has degraded significantly.

You need to stop this crap!   You need to find a different hobby or something.