psuhoffman Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 5 minutes ago, cbmclean said: I've been focused so much on the pattern change that I have kind of lost track of actual weather happening. Did they have a snow bust up there? I thought the storm wasn't hitting them until tomorrow. Southern New England was expecting a pretty good snow and it turned into a messy mix. They have been having a truly awful winter for their climo too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 47 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: They had their own meltdown today over the snow bust up here. I just don't understand that...90% of their winters, a fly sneezes and they get 2 feet just like that. I just don't understand how they can be as manic (or more) manic than we are down here. Some of them wouldn't last a winter in the Mid-atlantic! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Southern New England was expecting a pretty good snow and it turned into a messy mix. They have been having a truly awful winter for their climo too. I hate that for them. I like everybody to get their snow fix. I was kind of under the impression that late late November and early December was pretty cold up there. I was in the throes of a really tough gradate course so I wasn't able to pay too much attention. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 5 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: I just don't understand on...90% of their winters, a fly sneezes and they get 2 feet just like that. I just don't understand how they can be as manic (or more) manic than we are down here. Some of them wouldn't last a winter in the Mid-atlantic! Human nature. You get used to what you have gotten used too. If you don't have it, you notice it. For example, 100 years ago, many of our ancestors lived completely without electricity. If we lost electricity for two weeks, we would be resulting to cannibalism. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 Snow to the North, South, East and West. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 84 nam ( I know) has a strong cad signal Wed morning with moisture starting to move in . Gfs has it just not as robust . True artic air could be slow to depart . Thursday drops a little snow still . Fun tracking the past 2 weeks and ahead looks great .What? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 Ggem ftw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 What?Oh...I was looking at 850 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 Late week arctic front may not be dry. Gefs has shown some clippers or disturbances in the mix. I've seen worse vorts than this produce an inch or two Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ATreglown Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 7 hours ago, Solution Man said: Been following you guys for a few years. You are family to me....first post Welcome to the board! I am also more of a reader not much poster, but really enjoy it even so. Lots of good analysis and information here; as well as, some comic relief and a bit of trolling. I find that most are welcome to questions... if you have any when it comes to really wanting to learn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 Ukie is close, a miss for Day 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 26 minutes ago, Ji said: Ggem ftw Miller A with 4 to 8 lol... surprised that you aren't complaining about it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 4 minutes ago, yoda said: Ukie is close, a miss for Day 5 It was the furthest south with accumulating snow for today’s storm at d 5 though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 10 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Gfs with a HUGEEEE block day 12-13 Pacific leaves a lil bit to be desired but block is nice and look at that -NAO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 9 minutes ago, yoda said: Pacific leaves a lil bit to be desired but block is nice and look at that -NAO Would one of you mind circling where exactly the -NAO is? I still don't quite know what it looks like on these maps, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 Just now, Maestrobjwa said: Would one of you mind circling where exactly the -NAO is? I still don't quite know what it looks like on these maps, The red over Greenland...that look different than 18z GFS op...so my confidence in that is about a 1 until the GEFS shows it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 Gefs is showing the Fri-Sat potential again. The op had a decent shortwave but no surface reflection. Ensembles are much more active. It's getting more interesting and is likely our next chance at snowfall without temp problems. Hard to capture the spread with a single panel but this one is pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 16 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Would one of you mind circling where exactly the -NAO is? I still don't quite know what it looks like on these maps, Memorize the plots and read everything in this link. Covers all the important teleconnections we talk about daily. Essential knowledge https://climate.ncsu.edu/climate/patterns/nao Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Memorize the plots and read everything in this link. Covers all the important teleconnections we talk about daily. Essential knowledge https://climate.ncsu.edu/climate/patterns/nao Note from the link that Bob provided, it is not only the magnitude of the NAO which is important, but also the location. East-based due little to no good for Eastern NA. In the GFS plot above you can see the + anomalies centered just west of Greenland, in the Davis Strait and Baffin Bay. A Davis Strait block is apparently highly desirable. Of course it is a 336 hour op, so I simply scoff in its general direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 0z gefs is the second weenie run in a row. Below normal temps and stormy from d6 through the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 0z gefs is the second weenie run in a row. Below normal temps and stormy from d6 through the end.Fv3 with a soul shattering Miller b for the ages Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 3 minutes ago, Ji said: 9 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: 0z gefs is the second weenie run in a row. Below normal temps and stormy from d6 through the end. Fv3 with a soul shattering Miller b for the ages I'm nearly postive that we'll get a digital crushing at least once here shortly. It's not a very good setup for our area though. It can work but odds are against. Maybe Fri-Sat becomes something and it's closer in time. Your miller B dumpster fire is still D8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 13 minutes ago, Ji said: 20 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: 0z gefs is the second weenie run in a row. Below normal temps and stormy from d6 through the end. Fv3 with a soul shattering Miller b for the ages Seems like your delivering the bad news tonight lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 29 minutes ago, Ji said: 36 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: 0z gefs is the second weenie run in a row. Below normal temps and stormy from d6 through the end. Fv3 with a soul shattering Miller b for the ages If it doesn’t bury NYC or Philly then it’s not really that heartbreaking to me. On another note, I love that we have so many chances coming up. And the cold too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 50 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Memorize the plots and read everything in this link. Covers all the important teleconnections we talk about daily. Essential knowledge https://climate.ncsu.edu/climate/patterns/nao I have a question too: is it possible to tell how stormy the ensembles are predicting based on the height anomaly maps alone? Or does that require looking at precip and H5 panels? I’ve seen talk about the GEFS being active while the EPS looked cold and dry, and I wanted to know what to look for to figure those things out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 0z EPS has a signal for the day 8-9 coastal storm(miller B screw job). Uptick on the snow mean during that time, and overall the snow mean improved quite a bit through day 15 for the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 As for where the pattern is headed in the LR, it looks a bit more ambiguous now than it did a few days ago. Not worth much analysis at this point, but clearly the EPac look is not as favorable towards D15 on the latest ensemble runs. I wont say anymore so as to not induce worry and panic lol. Best to keep the focus on the next 10 days for now and see how things shake out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 5 hours ago, yoda said: Pacific leaves a lil bit to be desired but block is nice and look at that -NAO God:Here, in this glass I have given unto you, is an elixr for everlasting youth and life. Yoder: But the glass isn’t clean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 Today's weather rain ending slight rise in temps then temp drop later. Today's ensemble...shorts and a t shirt unless I go outside then long pants and a coat. Guaranteed to be 100% accurate and not open to different interpretations Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 Fv-3 looks a little better at H5 on 6z run for the late week storm. Looks like a few minor adjustments could give us a warning event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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