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January/February Medium/Long Range Disco


nj2va

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5 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

I've been focused so much on the pattern change that I have kind of lost track of actual weather happening.  Did they have a snow bust up there?  I thought the storm wasn't hitting them until tomorrow.

Southern New England was expecting a pretty good snow and it turned into a messy mix. They have been having a truly awful winter for their climo too. 

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47 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

They had their own meltdown today over the snow bust up here. 

I just don't understand that...90% of their winters, a fly sneezes and they get 2 feet just like that. I just don't understand how they can be as manic (or more) manic than we are down here. Some of them wouldn't last a winter in the Mid-atlantic!

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5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Southern New England was expecting a pretty good snow and it turned into a messy mix. They have been having a truly awful winter for their climo too. 

I hate that for them.  I like everybody to get their snow fix.  I was kind of under the impression that late late November and early December was pretty cold up there.  I was in the throes of a really tough gradate course so I wasn't able to pay too much attention.

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5 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

I just don't understand on...90% of their winters, a fly sneezes and they get 2 feet just like that. I just don't understand how they can be as manic (or more) manic than we are down here. Some of them wouldn't last a winter in the Mid-atlantic!

Human nature.  You get used to what you have gotten used too.  If you don't have it, you notice it.  For example, 100 years ago, many of our ancestors lived completely without electricity.  If we lost electricity for two weeks, we would be resulting to cannibalism.

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84 nam ( I know) has a strong cad signal Wed morning with moisture starting to move in . Gfs has it just not as robust . True artic air could be slow to depart . Thursday drops a little snow still . Fun tracking the past 2 weeks and ahead looks great .
What?
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7 hours ago, Solution Man said:

Been following you guys for a few years. You are family to me....first post

Welcome to the board! I am also more of a reader not much poster, but really enjoy it even so. Lots of good analysis and information here; as well as, some comic relief and a bit of trolling. I find that most are welcome to questions... if you have any when it comes to really wanting to learn. 

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Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

Would one of you mind circling where exactly the -NAO is? I still don't quite know what it looks like on these maps,

The red over Greenland...that look different than 18z GFS op...so my confidence in that is about a 1 until the GEFS shows it

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Gefs is showing the Fri-Sat potential again. The op had a decent shortwave but no surface reflection. Ensembles are much more active. It's getting more interesting and is likely our next chance at snowfall without temp problems. Hard to capture the spread with a single panel but this one is pretty good.

fwLCfkV.png

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16 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Would one of you mind circling where exactly the -NAO is? I still don't quite know what it looks like on these maps,

Memorize the plots and read everything in this link. Covers all the important teleconnections we talk about daily. Essential knowledge

https://climate.ncsu.edu/climate/patterns/nao

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1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

Memorize the plots and read everything in this link. Covers all the important teleconnections we talk about daily. Essential knowledge

https://climate.ncsu.edu/climate/patterns/nao

Note from the link that Bob provided, it is not only the magnitude of the NAO which is important, but also the location.  East-based due little to no good for Eastern NA.  In the GFS plot above you can see the + anomalies centered just west of Greenland, in the Davis Strait and Baffin Bay.  A Davis Strait block is apparently highly desirable.

Of course it is a 336 hour op, so I simply scoff in its general direction.

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3 minutes ago, Ji said:
9 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:
0z gefs is the second weenie run in a row. Below normal temps and stormy from d6 through the end.

Fv3 with a soul shattering Miller b for the ages

I'm nearly postive that we'll get a digital crushing at least once here shortly. It's not a very good setup for our area though. It can work but odds are against. Maybe Fri-Sat becomes something and it's closer in time. Your miller B dumpster fire is still D8. 

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29 minutes ago, Ji said:
36 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:
0z gefs is the second weenie run in a row. Below normal temps and stormy from d6 through the end.

Fv3 with a soul shattering Miller b for the ages

If it doesn’t bury NYC or Philly then it’s not really that heartbreaking to me.

On another note, I love that we have so many chances coming up. And the cold too.

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50 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Memorize the plots and read everything in this link. Covers all the important teleconnections we talk about daily. Essential knowledge

https://climate.ncsu.edu/climate/patterns/nao

I have a question too: is it possible to tell how stormy the ensembles are predicting based on the height anomaly maps alone? Or does that require looking at precip and H5 panels?

I’ve seen talk about the GEFS being active while the EPS looked cold and dry, and I wanted to know what to look for to figure those things out.

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As for where the pattern is headed in the LR, it looks a bit more ambiguous now than it did a few days ago. Not worth much analysis at this point, but clearly the EPac look is not as favorable towards D15 on the latest ensemble runs. I wont say anymore so as to not induce worry and panic lol. Best to keep the focus on the next 10 days for now and see how things shake out.

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