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January/February Medium/Long Range Disco


nj2va

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Because of the confluence pressing down and the h5 low in W TX and the location of the ridge out west?  I know it wont happen, just trying to learn something here real quick
Before the GFS gets on board lol
Here is Euro at same time frame about to phase the streams. With nam..that low would slowly move east and not phase 557e85699ee19aa0c0bfc3049ce176e8.jpg
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2 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Nam looks to almost totally leave the sw behind . Extrap = no north stream linking ...we take .lol

 

 

That was our only hope. I was thinking about that for a couple days but didn't want to say it since no model was anywhere close. It will make things a very tiny bit interesting for the next 40 minutes.

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1 minute ago, losetoa6 said:

Definitely interesting.  If it were to totally leave it behind its possible a southern slider could occur in that scenario..if  the strong PV lobe is still  close when it would approach.  Uk verbatim might be the best with a delayed approach allowing high pressure to build and riding the boundary but it's hard to say for sure . I'm not sure which is better honest 

easy...

the one w/ the most snow

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4 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Ukie still shares a partial ns link verbatim..but enough separation to get it done for many 

It's our only path to a good snowfall so we root for a clean disconnect. A partial phase late is ok because the ridging won't destroy the mids nearly as easily. 

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