CAPE Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Agreed. It's a late developer and some stream phasing so it's an unusually complicated miller A. It's a very fragile setup. Classic Miller A tracks the deep south and exits the coast in the carolinas as a well organzied storm. This one doesn't really get going until the trough goes neutral and 2 pieces of energy phase in the atlantic. This is not an inspiring vort panel. If that's the only thing i saw i would immediately think heartbreak setup. Lol Yeah, and I might be thinking Beach chase, lol. Although verbatim my yard does pretty well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 3 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Yeah, and I might be thinking Beach chase, lol. Although verbatim my yard does pretty well. Tbh I like that run lmao Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 12 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Need that trough to go negative around New Orleans. Would rather a Miller B with blocking. Not a fan of Miller A unless it’s perfect. I’m confused- I thought we tend to do better with Miller A’s than B’s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 3 minutes ago, snowmagnet said: I’m confused- I thought we tend to do better with Miller A’s than B’s. Miller B's tend to miss us to the north. Miller A's are less numerous for the mid Atlantic. Obviously either one is acceptable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 4 minutes ago, snowmagnet said: I’m confused- I thought we tend to do better with Miller A’s than B’s. I guess we do but I like the dying primary and transfer to new low scenario under a block of course. Miller As at h5 have to go negative at the perfect time or OTS they go. Too early and it’s west track. The problem is most Miller Bs transfer to our north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 20 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Ens model war in progress in the long range. Eps says cold and fairly dry. 18z gefs is anything but dry but not as cold. 18z gefs also supports the tricky storm around or after next weekend. A lot of unsual tracks and decent sized storms among the members. We are no doubt going to see a lot of versions in the coming days. Ji's worst nightmare. Should be a fun week. Overall the 18z gefs was a weenie run... that will change in a couple hours. I'd much rather have the GEFS version of the long range. Eps looks boring lol. GEFS looks Cold enough to get the job done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 Just now, Wonderdog said: Miller B's tend to miss us to the north. Miller A's are less numerous for the mid Atlantic. Obviously either one is acceptable. Yes I am not picky about how I get my snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 8 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Yes I am not picky about how I get my snow. But we typically score better totals with a Miller A, if I understand correctly. We typically have to have a perfect track around here to get the best storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 That's a pretty severe -EPO/-WPO on the 18z GFS ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Waiting on snow Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 1 minute ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: That's a pretty severe -EPO/-WPO on the 18z GFS ensembles. Yes and if I'm seeing it right the PNA goes negative and screws the pooch though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 4 minutes ago, snowmagnet said: But we typically score better totals with a Miller A, if I understand correctly. We typically have to have a perfect track around here to get the best storms. All true. But without blocking they move fast. We really don’t get enough of either. Luck is our biggest factor. Imaginary of course but seems to be involved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 we really need a -NAO guys..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 Just now, Ji said: we really need a -NAO guys..... We need a lot of things. Like to move our region 500 miles north. I’ve gotten used to most of our potential events to end up rain. Last weekend was an exception. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 7 minutes ago, Ji said: we really need a -NAO guys..... We really need you to stop worrying about details on 300 hour op runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Waiting on snow Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 14 minutes ago, Ji said: we really need a -NAO guys..... Why? Haven't you gotten plenty of snow since the last time it went negative in winter? Closing in on a decade now if my memory is good. 2011? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 If the end of the 18Z GFS run is right we will be walking on ponds and lakes at the end of the month. My area stays below freezing from hour 144 to the end of the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 1 hour ago, snowmagnet said: I’m confused- I thought we tend to do better with Miller A’s than B’s. Yes, we have a MUCH higher success rate with miller As. There's no comparison. A miller A with a good track and temps is guaranteed snow. Many good track miller Bs have left us with flurries. There's an inbetween version called a hybrid where a mature storm transfers from the TN valley to off the Carolinas. It's debateable which one it is. I consider it a miller A because the storm is already large and is simply making a jump to the barolclinic zone off the coast. Jan 2016 did that as have many others. That's very different than a weak system in the northern stream that doesn't even become a strong storm until off the coast and rapidly deepens. Our latitude is our worst enemy with that but SNE and even Philly has had countless big hits with those. 58 minutes ago, Waiting on snow said: Yes and if I'm seeing it right the PNA goes negative and screws the pooch though. I don't know about specifics for the SE but if we have a -ao/nao our region can do very well with a -pna. Higher risk of a nw track but CAD out in front can work great here. One of the snowiest winters in the mid atlantic back in the 60s was predominately a -pna but the blocking forced multiple storms far enough south and it was a great year. I'm totally good with what the 18z gefs showed. This mslp panel says it all. Strong CAD signal way out in time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 31 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said: I thought February would be rocking. All I see is that We Suck You're taking the wrong people seriously Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Waiting on snow Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 17 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Yes, we have a MUCH higher success rate with miller As. There's no comparison. A miller A with a good track and temps is guaranteed snow. Many good track miller Bs have left us with flurries. There's an inbetween version called a hybrid where a mature storm transfers from the TN valley to off the Carolinas. It's debateable which one it is. I consider it a miller A because the storm is already large and is simply making a jump to the barolclinic zone off the coast. Jan 2016 did that as have many others. That's very different than a weak system in the northern stream that doesn't even become a strong storm until off the coast and rapidly deepens. Our latitude is our worst enemy with that but SNE and even Philly has had countless big hits with those. I don't know about specifics for the SE but if we have a -ao/nao our region can do very well with a -pna. Higher risk of a nw track but CAD out in front can work great here. One of the snowiest winters in the mid atlantic back in the 60s was predominately a -pna but the blocking forced multiple storms far enough south and it was a great year. I'm totally good with what the 18z gefs showed. This mslp panel says it all. Strong CAD signal way out in time. I'm not sure what that is on the 18z FV3. Energy diving to the gulf and riding the gulf and transferring from Panama City to off the se coast. I'm guessing some Miller A hybrid or just a model hiccup. Kind of screws me verbatim in the upstate with the transfer. But that's just noise at this range. Important thing is a lot of models have a storm and cold is in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 7 minutes ago, Waiting on snow said: I'm not sure what that is on the 18z FV3. Energy diving to the gulf and riding the gulf and transferring from Panama City to off the se coast. I'm guessing some Miller A hybrid or just a model hiccup. Kind of screws me verbatim in the upstate with the transfer. But that's just noise at this range. Important thing is a lot of models have a storm and cold is in place. Ah, didn't realize you we talking about d16 on an op. Don't worry, that will change drastically every 6 hours forever. Just wait until it shows what you want and never look at it again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Waiting on snow Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 8 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Ah, didn't realize you we talking about d16 on an op. Don't worry, that will change drastically every 6 hours forever. Just wait until it shows what you want and never look at it again Lol its and op run for the 27th-28th. Low jumps from Panama to off CHS in one frame, screws me, and races up the length of the coast. May could get us both with a little work. It's all we got down here as of now and maybe up there too at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 9 minutes ago, Waiting on snow said: Lol its and op run for the 27th-28th. Low jumps from Panama to off CHS in one frame, screws me, and races up the length of the coast. May could get us both with a little work. It's all we got down here as of now and maybe up there too at the moment. I'll be honest...feels like posting the actual pictures of fail scenarios in fantasy range only exacerbates the worrying mania in here. But then again, it is the long range thread and it is what we discuss here, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Waiting on snow Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: I'll be honest...feels like posting the actual pictures of fail scenarios in fantasy range only exacerbates the worrying mania in here. But then again, it is the long range thread and it is what we discuss here, lol Lol definitely. Not trying to post a fail scenario, I'm trying to determine what it is. Miller B's I thought cut west of, or up the Apps and transfers. That one transfers from Panama City to off CHS. Didn't think a true Miller A transferred? I guess it's a Miller A/B hybrid? Either way not a bad look at this range imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: We really need you to stop worrying about details on 300 hour op runs. Exactly! Especially when it will change 12.5 times lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 1 hour ago, Bob Chill said: You're taking the wrong people seriously Showmethesnow was in Vegas, I was skiing in Vermont and you took the morning off and all hell broke loose. I checked in and was like lol what is this mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Showmethesnow was in Vegas, I was skiing in Vermont and you took the morning off and all hell broke loose. I checked in and was like lol what is this mess. Kind of reminds me of the NE thread, but with less insults. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 Just now, cbmclean said: Kind of reminds me of the NE thread, but with less insults. They had their own meltdown today over the snow bust up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Showmethesnow was in Vegas, I was skiing in Vermont and you took the morning off and all hell broke loose. I checked in and was like lol what is this mess. Ji has a handle on it. Winter cancel is our current state of mind. Dogs and cats living together...it’s madness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: They had their own meltdown today over the snow bust up here. I've been focused so much on the pattern change that I have kind of lost track of actual weather happening. Did they have a snow bust up there? I thought the storm wasn't hitting them until tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 6 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Ji has a handle on it. Winter cancel is our current state of mind. Dogs and cats living together...it’s madness. Ji this morning... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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